Ok, so it's already a bad pick then. No reason to even judge it later on then!

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I really don't understand what you're doing. Pulling a Baby McNown?

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

It's simple. According to just about everyone, the Cubs drafted a player higher than they should have so they could sign him under slot and instead be more aggressive later on. This was pretty much confirmed when he signed first and others behind him got paid more money. That means the draft should be judged on whether the players they then signed over slot had meaningful success in MLB.

You just think it was a terrible pick, so either way you don't think they did a good job. I want to give Theo the ability to show that his overdrafting in the first round was the right choice by setting the parameters for success.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I think the player is a bad pick. I think the strategy behind why they did it is sound.

I'm just not sure why they didn't take Hoffman instead of Schwarber. The discount would have been about the same, no?

If Schwarber ends up being close to Bryant, I'm wrong on every count. But again...his high floor / low ceiling prevents that, I believe.

.220 with 20-25 HR with no defensive value and no baserunning value isn't so great.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

So that is why it is to be judged based on how much meaningful production you get from those who were picked. That is the whole point.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I see.

The way you had phrased your original post is why I commented the way I did.

Simply that it is always interesting to see what production, if any, you get out of your picks. Regardless of the strategy behind each pick.

This is why baseball is the most entertaining sport. So much to watch and follow, even outside of the 3 hour window each day that the major league club plays a game.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

The Indians and 7th rounder Simeon Lucas (Grant HS) agreed to a $168.2k bonus. The deal is for slot.

The Giants and 5th rounder RHP Sam Coonrod (Southern IL) agreed to a $330k bonus. The deal is for slot.

The Indians also agreed with 4th rounder Sam Hentges on a $700k bonus. The deal is about $300k over slot.

That's (literally) a big loss for your Hogs, Hawger but you have to be real happy with how the draft went. Hentges will probably be the only guy they lose from a really good recruiting class as it doesn't look like McKinney is going to sign. Hogs win it all in 2016!

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2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

Under slot signing is roughly the equivalent of trading down. Pretty simple concept. He could've been the 2nd player on their board like they said but MLBs assbackwards thinking in everything prevents them from trading down.


Duh? They'll be judged on under slot ones too!

Yes, and we should judge more heavily when someone trades down.

However, if you are saying he was the 2nd player on the board, then we'll judge him that way instead. It just can't be one or the other. If he doesn't become a top player in this draft it was a bad pick regardless of what the others who signed above slot do.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Rick, you don't make the rules. Sorry, bud.

There are multiple ways this can work out in the favor of the Cubs.

It isn't a simple 'pass / fail' based on one player.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

It normally is a pass / fail based on one player though. The Cubs strategy seemed to be to draft a player above his deserved position so they could use the cost savings down the line in the draft.

Logically then, you'd have to judge that strategy based on how those other players work out and much less on the guy they drafted first. However, the argument now seems to be that the Cubs just got really lucky in that the player they thought was the second best in the draft also ended up being significantly cheaper.

You just can't play both sides of it. If he was considered their #2 player, then we judge the pick on his production alone. However, I think we all know that if the Cubs had the #2 pick it wouldn't be him.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I believe this to be correct.

But this can be a win in multiple ways:

1) Kyle Schwarber turns out to be deserving of the second overall pick and becomes pretty damn good. The high school pitchers do not matter.
2) Schwarber turns out to be serviceable, or is eventually flipped for some decent pitching help. At least one of the high school pitchers picked in the middle rounds contributes positively to the major league club.
3) Schwarber flames out, but 2 or 3 of the high school pitchers turn into very good contributors to the major league club, or can be flipped for a great player in an offseason or deadline deal.

Obviously, every Cubs fan wants Schwarber to be an amazing left fielder for the Cubs and have these high school pitchers become great as well. But baseball draft picks are the least predictable of the four major sports.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

Why?

The only real difference here is that you are saying if he ends up being worth the second pick in the draft then it was a good pick. I can't argue with that but it seems pretty obvious that any pick would be worth it if that happened.

2 and 3 are exactly what I'm trying to quantify.
Don't make me find some of your thoughts on the Bears and some of the first round picks they have made. Either by trading down, or "overdrafting" you lose the value of the pick. If this guy was a top 15 pick, and he went 4th then he should be judged more heavily. It's a great pick if he actually is the 2nd best player in the draft, but if he ends up being the 15th best then what they got for him must be pretty good to make up for the value lost.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I don't think we're really saying different things here. You're correct in the analysis...but as a Cubs fan...I don't have to pick a lane. I can be happy if this works out in several different ways.

I just really wish the Sox would have swept the Cubs in 2013.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

Why? The draft would have ended up the exact same. The guy the Cubs picked was their #2 choice.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Let's put the gloves down.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

I was just making fun of Saint Theo.

I'm sure I'll get some pushback from someone that he actually was their 2nd choice and the Cubs weren't lying.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

As boring as IMU-BRick spats are, they're fucking Lincoln-Douglas debates compared to listing every single pick in the draft's over/under slot value signings.

The Dodgers and RHP Grant Holmes agreed to a $2.5M bonus. The deal is about $520k over slot.

Is someone holding a gun to your head forcing you to read them?

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"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

I can't find some things about the 2014 draft worth reading and other things useless copy-pasting tripe?

The Mariners and OF Alex Jackson agreed to a $4.2M bonus. The deal is about $625k over slot.

Thanks signing slot Shark!

The Mets and OF Michael Conforto agreed to a $2.97M bonus. The deal is for slot.

The D'Bags and RHP Touki Toussaint agreed on a $2.7M bonus. The deal is about $362k above slot.

That's a great deal for the D'Bags. Right, Reader?

The Reds and 11th round C Mitch Trees (Springfield Sacred Heart Griffin) agree on a $300k bonus.

What'd you think of that kid Atterbury?

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There are only two examples of infinity: The universe and human stupidity and I'm not sure about the universe.