Here are the top 3 plays, FYI he ranks all the plays, with % of winning, but only has commentary on what his picks are. PAULS PICKS 7-1 ATS Day 1 and 2 Top 8 Selections 14-2 !!! ATS

If these go any less than 2-1 today, no Sunday plays

ATS Lock of the Day: Wisconsin -2.5 over Kansas State (Covers 60.0%)
There is actually a little irony here. Last year, Kansas State was our ATS Top Play of the Day on both Thursday and Saturday of the first week of the tournament. This year, the Wisconsin Badgers earn that distinction and now Kansas State is on the other side. The Badgers used that tremendous offensive efficiency and size that we discussed for Thursday to easily defeat Belmont, 72-58, covering a 4.5-point line and even going over the 125-point total as projected. Kansas State has better players than Belmont, yet is not necessarily a better team. In fact, Belmont's greatest strengths, forcing turnovers and offensive rebounding, are also Kansas State's greatest strengths - which does not bode well for the Wildcats.

Wisconsin has played the 13th toughest schedule in the country, going 24-8 and ranking third offensively in our strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted efficiency metrics. The Badgers are not a great defensive team - ranking 87th nationally - yet, just like we have talked about with Notre Dame in the past, Wisconsin uses its tempo and style of offensive play to aid its defense. Wisconsin's success at preventing turnovers is well-documented (by far the best in the country), but it may ultimately be free-throw shooting that wins them this game (by more than 2.5 points). The Badgers shoot an astounding 82.3% from the line, which is critical given the fact that Kansas State is the worst non-16 seed in the tournament with respect to committing fouls (ranking 300th in the country).

Kansas State has faced the 21st toughest schedule, winning 22 of 32 games. The Wildcats rank 77th offensively and 27th defensively. Kansas State is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the tournament, grabbing more than 40% of their missed shots. The Wildcats will need to continue to win the battle on the boards to have a chance.

Wisconsin wins outright 67.3% of the time and by an average score of 67.1 - 61.4. As 2.5-point favorites, Wisconsin covers the number 60.0% of the time, which would warrant an $80 play from a normal $50 player. The 127 point total in this case is appropriate and not playable.

Other ATS Paul's Pick of the Day: #2 Florida -5 over #7 UCLA (Covers 58.8%)
It is actually a bit of a surprise to see UCLA in this game. Michigan State had the more talented team, which did show - for the last eight minutes of the game. While it took the Spartans 32 minutes to wake up, Florida came out of the gate very strong against UCSB, winning by 28 and leaving no doubt that the Gators would not sleep on their opponent. Expect Florida to stay strong and take advantage of the weaknesses (particularly in the backcourt) that Michigan State exposed in UCLA late.

Florida played the 35th most difficult schedule in DI, winning 27 of 34 games and ranking 38th offensively and 29th defensively in our metrics. The Gators are one of the best 50 teams (of 345) in the nation in effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding percentage and foul rate. More importantly, Florida does not rank outside of the top 150 in any of the strength-of-schedule adjusted key factors that I typically reference. UCLA has played the 64th toughest schedule, going 23-10 and ranking 97th offensively and 48th defensively. The Bruins struggle with turnovers, ranking 285th in turnovers per possession and 282nd in generating turnovers per possession.

Florida wins outright over UCLA 73.2% of the time and by an average score of 70.5 - 62.1. As five-point favorites, the Gators cover the spread 58.8% of the time, which would warrant a $67 play from a normal $50 player. The 131-point total is appropriate and not playable.

Other ATS Paul's Pick of the Day: #3 BYU +1 over #11 Gonzaga (Covers 58.7%)
That's not a misprint. The eleven seed is a favorite over the three seed. I get it (to a degree). BYU has not looked great without Brandon Davies. The Cougars have been destroyed by New Mexico and San Diego State since losing Davies and only beat TCU and Wofford by single digits. Meanwhile, Gonzaga has come on strong since the middle of the WCC schedule and just blew out another team that was down one of its key contributors in St. John's. So in general, I get the love. We have loved teams to cover that are taking on short-handed teams. Gonzaga was even on the other side of a Paul's Pick on Thursday for this reason. But to favor the eleven over the three in this case? That seems like an over-reaction - one we hope to exploit.

Gonzaga has played the 92nd toughest schedule, going 24-9 and ranking 31st offensively and 47th defensively in the country. Clearly, those are better numbers than typical eleven seeds (even with the strength of this year's eleven seeds). The "Zags" don't rank in the top 30 in any key factor, yet the also don't rank outside of the top 150 in anything I typically use for review either. They are a pretty balanced and average tournament team. BYU, has to be viewed a little differently. The Cougars without Davies still ranked 21st in our final Power Rankings (Gonzaga ranked 30th). As currently constructed, BYU ranks as the 17th most efficient offensive team and the 45th best defensive team. The Cougars obviously also have the best player on the floor, Jimmer Fredette, which typically helps in a fairly evenly-matched game like this.

Third seeded BYU takes down Gonzaga by winning straight-up 58.7% of the time and by a score of 75.8 - 72.8. Since the Cougars are one-point underdogs, they also cover 58.7% of the time, which would warrant a $66 play from a normal $50 bettor. Total lines for Saturday seem to be as well placed as ever, as this is another "no pick" opinion on the over/under (against a 149.5-point line).

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"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

Good start

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If you watched the UCLA it was a perfect example of how that prediction program works.

Game goes on and on, UCLA inability to handle the ball and shoot well, v Florida great outside shooting, eventually came through as close as it was. Late covers are a little sweeter, but still enjoy the many blowout wins.

Honeycut, from UCLA kept it close with some big 3 pointers late, but without that, FLA moves ahead by 8 with 5 minutes left.

All that said, gotta like UCLA's talent for next year if they can get a stud PG.

Iorinically, same problem with AZ...no PG....from PG U! But they have a top 5 rated PG coming next year. "IF" Derrek Williams stays, they can be a top 10 team too.

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"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

Another 3-0!!!!! Thats 10-1 on best bets and now 20-2 in wagers made (Fuckin GTown blew a 5 game Parlay) I have made in the Tourney. Including tonights parlay winner of another $600!

FUCK YEAH $$$$$$ Ch Ching!

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"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

Nice job and thank you sir.

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Bernstein would say we need more data before this could be called statistically significant. Nonetheless it seems pretty incredible. Congrats!

Do they do the same thing for horse wagering?

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."