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ATS Lock of the Day: Ohio State -5 over Kentucky (Covers 58.8%)
I've been raving about Kentucky and how Ohio State got such a tough draw with the Wildcats in the Sweet 16, but the Buckeyes are still the best team in the country - and they have proven that thus far in the tournament. Ohio State would be at least 58% favorites (usually around 3-4 points) over any team left in the tournament. Against a Kentucky team that has not been quite as impressive as expected in both games of the tournament, the Buckeyes could easily win by double-digits. As it stands, they average winning over the Wildcats by 8.5 points.
Ohio State has played the 24th toughest schedule to-date, is 34-2 (winning over both teams - Purdue and Wisconsin - it lost to) and currently ranks first in the nation in our offensive efficiency metrics and tenth in defensive efficiency. Beyond that, the Buckeyes top-seven rotation is about as well crafted and coached as we have seen in several years. Outside of getting multiple players in foul trouble, particularly in other hostile Big Ten arenas, they don't have a weakness. So while Kentucky has depth, talent and a much higher basketball IQ than we have seen from a John Calipari team in years, the Wildcats do have weaknesses. They’re not a great offensive rebounding team and don’tor get to the free-throw line (so much for getting multiple Buckeyes in foul trouble) as much or as well as they should and they are one of the worst remaining teams at generating turnovers. Overall, UK has faced the 28th toughest schedule, is 27-8 and ranks ninth offensively and 18th defensively. In the Southeast region right now, the Wildcats would essentially be a lock for the Final Four, with a good chance of meeting Ohio State in the title game. Now they don't have much of a chance of seeing the Elite Eight.
Ohio State wins outright 72.8% of the time and by an average score of 75.4 - 66.9. As five-point favorites, the Buckeyes cover the spread 58.8% of the time, which would warrant a $67 play from a normal $50 player. The OVER (140) is weak, but playable.
Other ATS Paul's Pick of the Day: #11 Marquette +5 over #2 UNC (Covers 57.6%)
Marquette is the only team to make three days of Paul's Picks so far (Wisconsin, BYU and Ohio State have been picked twice). The first two times, it surprised me that we were so high on the Golden Eagles given who they were playing. Both times, they proved the Predictalator right and then some. This time, I'm surprised Marquette still isn't getting much love from the public and remains a five-point underdog. In general, the concern is likely that Marquette lacks the size to compete with UNC's Tyler Zeller and John Henson on the glass. That would be my concern as well. Marquette allows a relatively high percentage of offensive rebounds on opponents' misses. But the Golden Eagles also get a higher percentage of their own misses than just about any team. And beyond the numbers to an extent, go look at the tape. Marquette's front line, particularly Jae Crowder, had some of its best games against tall front lines (UConn, Syracuse, Bucknell, Vanderbilt, Xavier, etc.).
Marquette has played the 11th toughest schedule, going 22-14 and ranking sixth offensively and 46th defensively. Offensively, the Golden Eagles are very balanced and among the country's top 50 teams in just about every relevant category. UNC played the 15th toughest schedule, going 28-7 and (as presently constructed) ranking 47th offensively and eighth defensively. The Tar Heels are strong overall, yet have weaknesses getting to the line, shooting at a high rate and forcing turnovers.
UNC wins outright over Marquette 55.4% of the time and by an average score of 73.3 - 71.4 - the closest game on Friday. As 5-point underdogs, Marquette covers the spread 57.6% of the time, which would warrant a $55 play from a normal $50 player. The UNDER (148) is weak but playable... And yes, this analysis is almost identical to what we thought heading into the Marquette-Syracuse game.
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"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”
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