I vaguely remember D.Bernstein discussing a story he read about two people who took the opposing moneyline for every Pirates game last season and came out +2gs (Maybe more than that) over the course of 162 games.

Taking this into consideration, which 2011 teams are potential investments based solely on their inability to play baseball?

Nationals?
-Young pitchers. Strasburg down. Organizational B.Harper hate drowns any chance of success?

Royals?
-No Greinke. 5 pitchers 24 or younger. Least talented team in Division.

Astros?
-Looks to be a non competitive season for Houston. Just a bad roster. Almost $4Million worth of players already on DL.

Oakland?
-Least talented team in AL West. Not much power. Rich Harden and Andrew Bailey already on DL.

Cubs?
-I am a Cubs fan, but this team has no hitting power.

Idk if there are any hard core gamblers on the board. I've heard MLB is the hardest to bet. With a 162 game season I think this may be the safest route. It's just a matter of knowing which teams are going to stay bad, and/or get worse.

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Upon further review...

The Mets are sort of banged up right now, relying on an average pitching staff. Beltran can only play 5 of 7 games at a time now? The probable underachieving of NYM could give more wins to Washington, so does that hurt the investment value of the Nationals?

I'm looking real hard at Houston. The roster is seriously below average. That home ball park is a drawback however. If the Astros end up around .500 at home winning nothing but high scoring games it would ruin the whole investment as well.

A few of these teams are gonna be real bad. Who is the most fade worthy?

Houston
Oakland
Cleveland
Kansas City
Washington
Mets
Toronto
Arizona

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Philly is -260 vs. Houston on Bodog right now. Best odds on the board. Cliff Lee Vs. Wandy Rodriguez seems like a non hesitation move.

Also looking at Braves -160 vs. Washington. Weather is supposed to be cold and rainy though. Tommy Hanson vs. John 'Sling Blade' Lannon.

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You will go broke if you consistently lay that kind of chalk.

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Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

I completely agree Chus. I was just looking for input on which team is gonna lose close to 100 games. Maybe play the law of averages...

Anyway, VCU is +135 for the national championship. Good value for a team stomping folks.

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What's the consensus on betting baseball?

I've read on other boards to follow the umpire stats, just like the NBA.

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Dammit Chus!!! I could have been up $400 now fading Houston!!! Maybe $500 after tonight.

Fade Update:

Houston
0-4

Oakland
1-3

Washington
1-3

Arizona
2-3

Cleveland
2-2

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Fade Update (4-8-10):

(All one unit, hypothetical reference bets until further notice)

Houston Astros
1-5
+3.72units

Tampa Bay Rays
0-6
+7.68

Boston Red Sox
0-6
+7.90

Arizona Diamondbacks
2-3
+2.46

Washington Nationals
2-4
+0.54

Oakland Athletics
2-4
+1.94

I'm fairly confident I'll have to take Boston off of here soon. With all the pitching in the AL West, the standings could be a complete non profitable mess, so the Athletics could be removed from the list as well.

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Fade Update (4-11-10):

(All one unit, hypothetical reference bets until further notice)

Houston Astros
2-8
+5.64units

Tampa Bay Rays
2-8
+7.54

Boston Red Sox
2-8
+6.60

Arizona Diamondbacks
4-5
+2.50

Washington Nationals
4-5
-0.59

Oakland Athletics
5-5
-1.66

Once Oakland hits -3 units I'll probably remove them.

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Fade Update (4-14-11):

(All one unit, hypothetical reference bets until further notice)

Houston Astros
Overall Record:
4-9

Opponent Season Take:
+4.64

Since Last Update:
Split 2 games with Cubs and won against Padres.
-1.0

Tampa Bay Rays
Overall Record:
4-8

Opponent Season Take:
+4.79

Since Last Update:
Boston and Minnesota both lost to the Rays.
-2.75

Boston Red Sox
Overall Record:
2-9

Opponent Season Take:
+8.25

Since Last Update:
Tampa Bay won against the Red Sox.
+1.65

Arizona Diamondbacks
Overall Record:
5-6

Opponent Season Take:
+2.20

Since Last Update:
St. Louis split two games with Arizona.
-0.30

Washington Nationals
Overall Record:
5-7

Opponent Season Take:
+0.14

Since Last Update:
Philly won 2 of 3 against the Nationals.
+0.73

Oakland Athletics
Overall Record:
6-7

Opponent Season Take:
-0.36

Since Last Update:
Split 2 games with the White Sox and lost to the Tigers.
+1.30

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Fade Update (4-17-11):

(All one unit, hypothetical reference bets until further notice)

Houston Astros
Overall Record:
5-11

Opponent Season Take:
+5.20

Since Last Update:
San Diego won 2 of 3 against the Astros
+0.56

Tampa Bay Rays
Overall Record:
6-9

Opponent Season Take:
+4.17

Since Last Update:
Minnesota lost 2 of 3 against the Rays.
-0.62

Boston Red Sox
Overall Record:
4-10

Opponent Season Take:
+6.89

Since Last Update:
Toronto lost 2 of 3 against the Red Sox.
-1.36

Arizona Diamondbacks
Overall Record:
6-8

Opponent Season Take:
+3.17

Since Last Update:
San Francisco won 2 of 3 against the D-Backs.
+0.93

Washington Nationals
On Notice For Removal
Overall Record:
7-7

Opponent Season Take:
-2.91

Since Last Update:
Brewers were swept by Nationals
-3.64

Oakland Athletics
Overall Record:
8-8

Opponent Season Take:
-1.34

Since Last Update:
Detroit lost 2 of 3 against the Athletics
-0.98

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