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 Post subject: 2007 predictions
PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 12:32 am 
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my fantasy league board had a thread for sox 07 predictions, so i thought it'd be interesting to see what you all have to say. here's what i posted there:
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f all that stuff happens in one year, you're marshstrodamus.

my predictions:

- contreras will have a flat year. he might even suffer a major injury.
- garland won't wow anyone with k's but he'll be even more effective at getting bad balls in play and will finish the year with an ERA of 3.8 ~ 4.1 and around 10 dingers given up @ home.
- vasquez will be the sox most reliable pitcher, holding opposing batters to less than 200 hits and an ERA of 4.0 ~ 4.2
- one of the bullpen options isn't going to pan out, but the others fare well. unfortunately, i think the guy who doesn't quite get it will be sisco, who's easily my favorite guy going into spring training.
- erstad will be serviceable and healthy. he will likely move around in the order, eventually dropping to #5 or 6, and will play a consistent center field @ the joan.
- jermaine dye will hit, joe crede will not. the latter's average will take a dive, while the former's will stay consistent with his production last year, + or - 3 home runs and 10 rbi, contingent on his spot in the order.
- konerko's numbers will slip ever so slightly. i think his average/obp will go up while his power numbers / rbi go down.

the key player, besides the staff, is mackowiak. if he wins the job in left field and plays 100+ games there, i think they have a shot at the division. i put the team at 87 ~ 91 wins, which is kind of a soft range. if i had to pick a number, i'd say 88. they'll lose the crosstown series and come out on top against the royals 12-6.

edit: i also think the indians will have 90 ~ 94 wins this year, and will win the division.

another key, to me, is ozzie finding a consistent lineup. my dream lineup includes mackowiak slotted into leadoff / left field, and konerko hitting 5th, with erstad following (and the rest of the order dropped a slot):

1. mackowiak, lf
2. iguchi, 2b
3. dye, rf
4. thome, dh
5. konerko, 1b
6. erstad, cf
7. pierzynski, c
8. crede, 3b
9. cintron, ss

that's five left-handed hitters out of 9 spots in the order, which will hopefully be a consistent enough everyday order that ozzie won't have to waste slots by starting pablo ozuna or brian anderson, who are less competent right-handed hitters.

all that said, i think they're gonna hold off on the young position players, much to their chagrin. a guy like jerry owens is as major league ready as nook logan or choo freeman ever will be, but it's just not the right time for him to come up and develop. ryan sweeney is the most promising guy, to me, of the lot, but if he's thrown into the mix after even an above-average spring training, i'd have problems with it.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 1:00 am 
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I don't think Cleveland has the pitching to win 90 games

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 1:48 am 
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jenks over 40 saves

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 9:23 am 
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Your dream lineup has Mackowiak as the leadoff hitter ?


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 10:10 am 
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Yea Mackowiak is slow and strikes out too much. Not my perfect leadoff guy.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 12:30 pm 
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my ckase for mackowiak:

- he advanced from first to third on 50% of his chances last year, same as podsednik. he also batted for higher averages across the board, and will do the same or better this year. (podsednik, of course, had him beat advancing from first to home, but that's almost impossible @ the cell, anyway.)

- he sees about four pitches per plate appearance, which is right around the team average (to give you an idea, mackowiak was at 3.8 last year, while dye saw 4.1, thome 4.3, and konerko and iguchi both had 3.9) this metric also compares favorably to darin erstad, who has had the same average p/pa as mackowiak the past three seasons.

- he only struck out 59 times in 290 plate appearances, i wouldn't call that "too much" by any stretch.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 1:43 pm 
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Rob Mack is too wild at the plate to be an effective lead-off hitter, regardless of his strike-out ratio. Sure, the guy makes contact, but doesn't get on base nearly enough.

I predict that the South Siders will have a mediocre year, mainly due to the youth on the mound in both the bullpen and the rotation. Having said that, I believe that Minnesota and Cleveland will have very good years while Detroit takes a step or two back in the division (those young arms have to get tired at some point, right?). I will give the White Sox about a 60% chance of making the postseason.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 2:25 pm 
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I would like to see iguchi lead off. He would likely see more fastballs that way and he wouldn't have to give him self up as often so probably would a higher batting average.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 4:09 pm 
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sox win 87 games, finish 2nd in the AL central, miss the playoffs.

i hope im wrong, but i dont see them winning much.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 4:17 pm 
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Cleveland will be the wild card. I think Detroit will have a hangover this season and will fade late in the year.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 4:44 pm 
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Quote:
Your dream lineup has Mackowiak as the leadoff hitter ?


At least he doesn't have him in CF :roll:

Pending the Uribe court case & Pods recovery, I see the '07 line up same as '06 except an Anderson/Erstad platoon. With Hall, Ozuna, Mackowiak, Cintron & Erstad making the roster, I see Fields, Owens or Sweeney in triple A.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 5:46 pm 
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If I see Rob M starting more than 80 games, this team is in trouble.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 5:51 pm 
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As Harry would say "What about the pitching?"

If one of Massett, Sisco or Aardsma turns into a reliable reliever, I think the Sox win the division. I don't think that is asking for too much.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 6:17 pm 
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On a related note, Charlotte's starting rotation could be great in '07 :wink:

Danks
Haeger
Broadway
Gio
Sisco

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 6:41 pm 
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yeah...i'm kinda with Frank C. on this one...

I'll give them 89 wins, but the Tigers or Cleveland will get 90....whichever team does not, will either tie or finish a game back from the Sox.

The AL Wild Card will be had by 93 or 94 wins....probably from the East this year.

I'm thinking an NL team could win it again...beating either the Yanks or Boston. (big stretch, eh?)
Not sure which NL team will win.
I do think injuries will be a major factor throughout MLB this year....maybe a major player goes down early in a playoff series?

We will not see 100 wins in either league.....
it's going to be a "grinder" year.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 14, 2007 9:30 am 
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Twins and Indians are pretenders this year. However there will be four teams over .500 in the division and KC will be competitive which means it should take less than 95 games to win the division. It probably also means no wild card.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 14, 2007 10:43 am 
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I think Brian Nikola Anderson will have a good (but not great) season and be the everyday CF. There will be a platoon in LF between Darin Charles Erstad and Joshua Dean Fields. Scott Eric Podsednik will be shown the door before May 1. :wink:


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 14, 2007 11:21 am 
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I dont think Scott Erica Podsednik will even be healthy by May 1st. If they release him that quickly then what a terrible signing.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 14, 2007 12:38 pm 
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Quote:
There will be a platoon in LF between Darin Charles Erstad and Joshua Dean Fields. Scott Eric Podsednik will be shown the door before May 1.


Hold your horses on Fields. He hasn't arrived just yet.
So far, his minor league stats mirror Joe Borchard's first 3 pro seasons and trail Brian Anderson's. He strikes out 30% of the time against guys many of whom will never sniff the majors.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 14, 2007 4:17 pm 
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oh, one omre thing. i want brian n anderson as my everyday centerfielder. from what ive seen of him so far, he's already better than aaron rowand not only with his glove, but with his throwing arm (how many times did rowand airmail the cutoff man trying to nail a guy at 3rd or home who he clearly had no chance on throwing out). all the guy has to do is hit even .240. thats not asking a whole lot.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2007 12:42 pm 
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all the guy has to do is hit even .240. thats not asking a whole lot.





From Brian Anderson, it is.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2007 12:46 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
oh, one omre thing. i want brian n anderson as my everyday centerfielder. from what ive seen of him so far, he's already better than aaron rowand not only with his glove, but with his throwing arm (how many times did rowand airmail the cutoff man trying to nail a guy at 3rd or home who he clearly had no chance on throwing out). all the guy has to do is hit even .240. thats not asking a whole lot.


Please Ozzie, no Mackowiak in center field. With a questionable pitching staff, you have got to put your best defensive team out there.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2007 4:12 pm 
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[quote ]From Brian Anderson, it is.[/quote]

not at all uggie. there was a strech last year-- maybe the last week of may til mid august, give or take-- in which brian hit about .305. if he can hit .300 for 8-10 weeks, there's no reason for him to start out hitting a buck sixty for 2 months.

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 17, 2007 3:36 am 
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I laugh at all the naysayers about the White Sox this season.

Granted, Detroit and Minnesota will be formidable division rivals - but it's not like the Sox had to do a lot this offseason. With Konerko, Dye and Thome - the Sox will have some serious thump and Crede continues to improve. I expect Anderson to play a lot better this year as well, and Erstad was a steal.

I still wonder about the Garcia trade though. It's not like they did anything with the money saved. Come on Kenny.

I just read that Buerhle turned down a 3 year 33 Mil extension prior to last year's All Star game. If he pitches like he did the 2nd half of last seaosn, I'm glad he turned the Sox down.


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 17, 2007 2:54 pm 
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i remember that too Coach....haven't heard anything other than Buerhle is 15 lbs. lighter in camp.

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 1:55 pm 
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Gee, Imagine that.
A player in his walk year shows up in shape and has a great season.
Buehrle, while pitching through pain, will win 18 games, keep his ERA below 4 and get a 6 year $90mil deal on the open market.

Then, if the white sox history holds and I personally hope it deesn't, he'll do his best Wilson Alvarez / Alex Fernandez impersonation by blowing up to about 3 bills & eating himself out of baseball.

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 7:35 pm 
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i think they'll try to work out another extention for buehrle. if nothing works out, trade him at the break. you might be able to get someone really special for him at that time.

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 11:28 pm 
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3rd place again and McCarthy wins 18 games for the rangers and Freddy wins 17 for the phils. Denks, Sisco, Aardsma win a total of 7 games for the White Sox

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 12:39 am 
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FredsMissingNuts wrote:
3rd place again and McCarthy wins 18 games for the rangers and Freddy wins 17 for the phils. Denks, Sisco, Aardsma win a total of 7 games for the White Sox


Yeah, but these guys are all going to 20 game winners within 3 seasons!


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