Post all your "Strikeouts do matter", "WAR is a useless stat", "I use the eye test" comments here


and the Pro Saber people will battle you.


Good luck to all. Lets keep it clean.


To Begin let me throw a few facts out there


Billy Beane did NOT write Moneyball

Moneyball was NOT about recognizing OBP, it was about finding undervalued stats

Theo Epstein used a Sabermetric approach (hiring Bill James) to win 2 World Series

What is the proof that Sabermetrics actually works? Obviously, having any type of statistical information is helpful. I'm not talking about changing baseball thinking like stolen bases are bad if you get caught too much or that strikeouts are better than double plays.

What has been proven so that "Player X is better than Player Y because his WAR is better" is considered a complete and valid argument?

One of the biggest flaws I see in sabermetrics is that it was guaranteed to be an answer. It's kind of like the stock market. I can create a pretty strong algorithm that explains what happened in the past. It is taking the information and modeling it and then noticing patterns and building something that fairly accurately models those patterns. Does that mean that it is valid to describe todays situation and the future? How do I go about proving that?

There was another thread where DAC referenced career WAR and that was it. What has sabermetrics done to reach the level of trustability that simply saying "his WAR is higher" is a valid argument?

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Walks are not as important as hits (singles) because lots of things can happen on a hit that can't happen on a walk. For instance, a runner can take an extra base like 1st to 3rd or 2nd to home. The fielder can make an error which causes runners to move another base or more. Open bases, like a runner on 3rd, make a walk less valuable as it does not move all runners along.

I don't buy wins above replacement. I've read all about it on fangraphs. I'll stick to the eye test and evaluate each statistic and give it my own weight. I don't need one all knowing stat. I can safely say Joey Votto's batting average and slugging percentage make him more valuable than Carlos Pena, and I have a sense for the degree of his "betterness" than Pena.

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

I hope you guys PM'd bigfan and JORR before starting this.

_________________

Can this be labeled as a "rolling" thread?

Thanks.

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

WAR is just another tool to use to check a player's past performance.
Brick, no one is claiming that saber stats will tell you what a player will do in the future. All it is is a mishmash of statistics that create another one that consolidates. Similar to how you could look at a pitchers hits, and walks and innings pitched seperately or you could you at a WHIP. Does WHIP tell a better story than the three stats individually? no, because as we know singles and doubles are more "valuable" to an offense than a walk is, yet they're counted the same in WHIP, but again, it's just another tool.

_________________
"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

Boston had the second highest payroll in MLB in 2004 and they were $24 million above third place.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

WAR is not a perfect stat. There is no perfect stat. The point of sabermetrics is not to create one perfect stat. Its to examine the numbers in every way possible and try and figure out which ones are predictive.

But as far as an all encompassing stat. WAR is probably the best we have right now.

And Bill James, Godfather of Saber, has always maintained the numbers are a tool to go along side the eye test.


I dont get the anti numbers thing.

I don't like WAR at all.

I think there is validity in walks though.

1.It means your hitters are developing patience and an ability to see and analyze pitches instead of just hacking which should result in better overall ab's

2.It generally breeds deeper counts for the opposing pitcher which will get their pitch counts up.

3.Opposing pitchers won't be so liberal with their out pitches if they know the other team has the discipline to lay off and take the walk.

That Bogusevic AB last week when he hit the grand slam off Marmol shows why I value walks.

_________________
That's my purse! I don't know you!

George: Guys, hitting is not about muscle. It's simple physics. Calculate the velocity, v, in relation to the trajectory, t, in which g, gravity, of course remains a constant. It's not complicated.

_________________

If Sabermetrics only tell you how good someone is after the fact how is it useful in running a baseball operation? I believe that one of the primary goals is to use it to predict current and future production. Otherwise, if it's just a historical record of what happened it's kind of useless.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Yankees had the highest payroll from 2001-2008 and won 0 WS. Boston won 2 in that time.

The fact is Theo Epstein used Sabermetrics to put together his team and theyve had a bunch of success.

You asked for proof and I gave it to you.

Ok. What Sabermetric stats are predictive then? Where is the proof that they are accurate?
I'm not anti numbers. I just haven't seen a reason to trust Sabermetrics besides the few logical conclusions they've helped change(steals only good if it's not costing a lot of runs).

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I don't understand why people try to frame this as an us vs them argument. Statistical analysis and scouting are both essential for the success of an organization and anyone who thinks one is more important than the other is an idiot.

He also outspent everyone but the Yankees, who happen to have 5 titles since Billy Beane "changed the way the game is played".

That's not proof though. It's more likely that having the second highest payroll in all of baseball is what did it.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

If every team had the same payroll, I'd buy your argument. To simply compare two teams to prove your point is too simplistic.

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

Cmon Brick.
ALL stats do is tell you the past. Saber stats, and your traditional stats.
No matter what stat you looked at on Adam Dunn, they did not predict his shit performance in 2011.

_________________
"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

First of all, no one said Walks and hits are equal.

Secondly the whole idea with these numbers is to figure out the percentages. You dont have to guess. A walk has a certain value and a hit has a certain value. They both lead to a certain number of runs scoring. Then you figure out what the difference in value is. Now you apply that and figure out

Is a guy who gets 30 more hits worth 3 million more than a guy who might get 20 more walks?


Your statement is good case for Saber

You're right. The fact of the matter is everyone uses stats. It's just that sabermetrics uses new types of stats and says they are better. I will agree that OBP is more important than batting average. But I will never agree that a walk is better than a hit. I won't agree about a strikeout better than a ball in play.

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

But a single and walk are worth the same in OBP, aren't they?

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

I understand and I agree. Sabermetrics is the best method we have to model the past. I'm a stats guy. You have to be to do what I do. I just don't see the predictive nature of it any more than the predictive nature of "This guy was good last year, and he's not old yet, so I think he'll be good next year". Sabermetrics did a good job of uncovering some baseball old wives tales about bunting and walks but I think that citing it as a present or future measure is not right to do because I haven't had anyone actually explain to me why it's valid.

The problem with anything computer based statistical analysis is that you always get some type of answer. It's like the weather. You have terabytes of data at your disposal now when it comes to what happened in the past, and it's possible to model all of that and by trial and error and other methods to come up with something that does a great job of explaining what happened back then. You'll always find that though. Another example is map making. When a guy in the 1400s set out to draw a map it was guaranteed that he would be able to do it and come up with something that seemed right. However, they ended up inacurrate to the point of being useless and they could not prove that they were correct and when used they'd often fail you. I'm just wondering how we know where we are with Sabermetrics. Getting an answer is easy. Getting an accurate answer is the tough part.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I completely understand why general managers want to utilize any stats that might help them predict future performance. (Although it seems some do not). What I don't understand is why something like WAR is important for the casual fan. So he can beat his friends over the head by insisting that Ben Zobrist was better in a given year than Miguel Cabrera?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

No one said he changed the way the game is played. You obviously have a grudge against Billy Beane. You think its easy to win 90 plus game three years in a row in a small market.

Even if Beane is a terrible GM (He's not) Sabermetrics and their value are not determined by Billy Beane's performance alone....which should be quite obvious, Boilermaker Hawk.



That's not proof though. It's more likely that having the second highest payroll in all of baseball is what did it.[/quote]
Well, he's the second most prominent name to use the stats and he's been very successful.

Everyone knows money helps you win in baseball. But it doesnt guarentee anything. The money has to be spent wisely. Thats why Epstein owned the Yankees for that period. He was better at spending the money largely due to his reliance on statistical analysis.


If you look at the players he's targeted Youk (aka The Greek God of Walks), Mike Lowell, High strikeout pitchers and how he's had an uncanny record of getting rid of great players right before they fall off (Pedro, Manny, Foulke, ) its obvious that what how he analyzes the past and predicts the future works well.

So you prefer a double play to a strikeout when there's a man on first and one out?


Yes, thats why OPS is a much better stat. Adding in the slugging, while keeping the value of walks.

It's easier than playing in 3 straight World Series, which is what the A's did almost right before Billy Beane first joined the organization. Everyone acts like the Athletics were the Cubs and hadn't done anything for decades.
They should be determined by a guy being smart enough to win a title by outspending all but one other team?
Yet, when Kenny Williams does a great job of having players perform as good or better than expected you say that he simply took a bunch of gambles and they "all came up aces"?

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Yeah those A's teams had superstars. Beane did it with less money.

He won 90 games three years in a row with a TINY payroll. You've already made the argument that spending = winning, so to scoff at what Beane did is hypocritical.

Either spending matters and what Beane did was awesome or it doesnt matter and what Epstein did was awesome.

Take ur pick of which Pro Saber argument you want to make



They should be determined by a guy being smart enough to win a title by outspending all but one other team?[/quote]
Oh, so money matters in this portion of your post? Ok.

Well, name some guys that used Saber that arent successful. The fact that youre trying to pin the whole philosophy on one guy shows you really dont understand the nature of the whole thing.

Its a philosophy. The people that have used it and embraced it most and earliest have been successful. Thats a fact. Spin it all you want, but its a fact.


Yet, when Kenny Williams does a great job of having players perform as good or better than expected you say that he simply took a bunch of gambles and they "all came up aces"?[/quote]


Not even close. Kenny did it ONE year. Epstein has done it consistently since taking over. They are not in the same class of GM's.


But when KW puts together 6 playoff appearances in 7 years while getting rid of all star players and finding new ones every year I will give him credit.

I'm pretty sure numbers scouting got Paul Podesta run out of L.A. in favor of an old-time newspaper man from Chicago who promptly put together a team that swept a Cub team that was supposed to be "THE BEST IN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE".

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

That's not really a fair comparison. Theo wouldn't have been able to do that as GM of the CWS.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul