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 Post subject: Re: 2012 HOF Ballot
PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2011 11:33 am 
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I think there is a greater appreciation for the walk these days as it does something good for you (i.e., not get an out), but I don't think we should ever view the walk to be as good as a single. A walk only advances runners that are backed up to first base, and they can only move one base ahead. A walk never turns into a double due to defensive error. A walk can only score a max of one run, where a hit can score up to four. I think back in the day a walk was viewed more as a bad thing -- i.e., you left the runner sitting on second when you could have tried to get him home -- or at the very least, a neutral thing. Nobody really had done studies on what effect one batting event had on the rest of the inning and/or game.

If baseball had these advanced statistics back in the 1910s and we grew up knowing what our favorite shortstop's zone rating was, it would be interesting to see how it viewed perception of these players. I suspect if someone presented the concepts of WAR or OPS+ back then, they would be laughed out of town and told to go back working in their science lab on that moving pictures box idea.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 HOF Ballot
PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2011 2:30 pm 
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The batter/pitcher confrontation is an extremely complex interaction within the greater context of the batting order. I know there is a lot of research to suggest that batting order position is insignificant and the concept of "protection" for a batter is a myth. I'm not sure if that's actually the case or not. I view a batting order as a complex system.

In a particular batting order pitchers may choose not to pitch to Adam Dunn. In another they may pitch to him and discover he's even easier to strike out than people previously believed. Or maybe Dunn just had a bad year. It's difficult to say with any authority.

Concerning a guy like Tim Raines, his walks put him on base where he steals at an inhuman percentage. His walk is probably more valuable than a walk to Barry Bonds which may have been a preferable outcome for the pitcher/defense than something else that was likely to occur. When Bonds draws a walk the onus is put on a lesser hitter to perform.

Finally, I agree with what newper said regarding a single being a better offensive outcome than a walk. There is, however, a school of thought that might disagree. A single is only a single once the defense fails to field it. It begins life as a batted ball. Whatever one thinks about the randomness of a batted ball, all evidence points to luck being a far greater factor in batters reaching safely than had previously been believed. A walk always results in a new base runner. Many different things can occur on a single, including mistakes by the batter or an existing runner.

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