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 Post subject: Re: ***Bowl games***
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 4:03 pm 
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I may have a play on Clemson at halftime.

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 Post subject: Re: ***Bowl games***
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 7:13 pm 
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West Virginia +3, -105
Yes Clemson is the popular public favorite based on some impressive wins, most recently the pounding of VaTech. But this is the same Clemson team that was whacked by South Carolina, NC State and Ga Tech. WVU on the other hand has played a bunchof squeakers in the weak Big LEast conference. So no surprise bettors will like the team with the more impressive wins.

But is this record worth laying 3 points? I think this game is a classic example of what happens so often in sports. A point spread reflects public perception based on scores and outcomes, not on the power ratings or the matchups. I make this number about 1, not 3. So while it's not a clear cut case of WVU being the right side, I think it's the math side and not so coincidentally, the sharp side.

It's possible that you might find a 3.5 before kick, considering the line is currently between 3 and 3.5.


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 Post subject: Re: ***Bowl games***
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 8:23 pm 
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Coast2Coast wrote:
West Virginia +3, -105
Yes Clemson is the popular public favorite based on some impressive wins, most recently the pounding of VaTech. But this is the same Clemson team that was whacked by South Carolina, NC State and Ga Tech. WVU on the other hand has played a bunchof squeakers in the weak Big LEast conference. So no surprise bettors will like the team with the more impressive wins.

But is this record worth laying 3 points? I think this game is a classic example of what happens so often in sports. A point spread reflects public perception based on scores and outcomes, not on the power ratings or the matchups. I make this number about 1, not 3. So while it's not a clear cut case of WVU being the right side, I think it's the math side and not so coincidentally, the sharp side.

It's possible that you might find a 3.5 before kick, considering the line is currently between 3 and 3.5.


Love your analysis. Just in time as I have been waffling back n forth all day.

Go Mountaineers!


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 Post subject: Re: ***Bowl games***
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:18 pm 
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Chus you may want to look at that Clem 2nd half...I'm thinking line will be Clem -7.5 or so


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 Post subject: Re: ***Bowl games***
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:32 pm 
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I am not playing 2h. Listening to the Clem coach, he sounds beaten and shellshocked. i expect a WVU letdown at some point, but not sure he is in any condition to rally the troops to win the 2h by 7.5.


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 Post subject: Re: ***Bowl games***
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 11:27 pm 
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Coast2Coast wrote:
West Virginia +3, -105
Yes Clemson is the popular public favorite based on some impressive wins, most recently the pounding of VaTech. But this is the same Clemson team that was whacked by South Carolina, NC State and Ga Tech. WVU on the other hand has played a bunchof squeakers in the weak Big LEast conference. So no surprise bettors will like the team with the more impressive wins.

But is this record worth laying 3 points? I think this game is a classic example of what happens so often in sports. A point spread reflects public perception based on scores and outcomes, not on the power ratings or the matchups. I make this number about 1, not 3. So while it's not a clear cut case of WVU being the right side, I think it's the math side and not so coincidentally, the sharp side.

It's possible that you might find a 3.5 before kick, considering the line is currently between 3 and 3.5.

Great call Coast, I am going to have to start looking here before my play. Looking forward to your thoughts on Friday night.

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 Post subject: Re: ***Bowl games***
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2012 1:09 am 
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salukiboss wrote:
Coast2Coast wrote:
West Virginia +3, -105
Yes Clemson is the popular public favorite based on some impressive wins, most recently the pounding of VaTech. But this is the same Clemson team that was whacked by South Carolina, NC State and Ga Tech. WVU on the other hand has played a bunchof squeakers in the weak Big LEast conference. So no surprise bettors will like the team with the more impressive wins.

But is this record worth laying 3 points? I think this game is a classic example of what happens so often in sports. A point spread reflects public perception based on scores and outcomes, not on the power ratings or the matchups. I make this number about 1, not 3. So while it's not a clear cut case of WVU being the right side, I think it's the math side and not so coincidentally, the sharp side.

It's possible that you might find a 3.5 before kick, considering the line is currently between 3 and 3.5.


Love your analysis. Just in time as I have been waffling back n forth all day.

Go Mountaineers!


Send that man a check! :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: ***Bowl games***
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2012 9:16 am 
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Coast2Coast wrote:
Chus you may want to look at that Clem 2nd half...I'm thinking line will be Clem -7.5 or so



There was no way I was putting any scratch on Clemson after what I saw in the 2nd quarter. I'm glad I held off, and am counting my money from my hockey plays last night.

What a terrible bowl season for the trash in the ACC, excluding the Wolfpack, and to some extent Free Shoes U.

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 Post subject: Re: ***Bowl games***
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2012 9:54 am 
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Regular Reader wrote:
salukiboss wrote:
Coast2Coast wrote:
West Virginia +3, -105
Yes Clemson is the popular public favorite based on some impressive wins, most recently the pounding of VaTech. But this is the same Clemson team that was whacked by South Carolina, NC State and Ga Tech. WVU on the other hand has played a bunchof squeakers in the weak Big LEast conference. So no surprise bettors will like the team with the more impressive wins.

But is this record worth laying 3 points? I think this game is a classic example of what happens so often in sports. A point spread reflects public perception based on scores and outcomes, not on the power ratings or the matchups. I make this number about 1, not 3. So while it's not a clear cut case of WVU being the right side, I think it's the math side and not so coincidentally, the sharp side.

It's possible that you might find a 3.5 before kick, considering the line is currently between 3 and 3.5.


Love your analysis. Just in time as I have been waffling back n forth all day.

Go Mountaineers!


Send that man a check! :lol:


ABSOLUTELY!!! Thank you very kindly Coast. Will send a check and a beer. Well done Sir.


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 Post subject: Re: ***Bowl games***
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2012 8:13 pm 
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sorry so late. Arkansas -8 for me tonight. I was waiting to see how much it might drop and maybe waited too late. I had game time wrong. Busy day on airplanes and had my time zones messed up. I know there are 9s around as the line has yo-yo'd a bit. I'd lay the 9 too.

SEC speed should tell the tale.


Last edited by Coast2Coast on Fri Jan 06, 2012 8:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: ***Bowl games***
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2012 8:15 pm 
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Coast2Coast wrote:
sorry so late. Arkansas -8 for me tonight. I was waiting to see how much it might drop and maybe waited too late. I had game time wrong. Busy day on airplanes and had my time zones messed up. I know there are 9s around as the line has yo-yo'd a bit. I'd lay the 9 too.

Coast, I love ya!!!! :D

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 Post subject: Re: ***Bowl games***
PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2012 12:58 pm 
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11-4-2 bowls

Today
SMU +4 v Pitt
Better numbers were available but think 4 just fine. I will take June Jones' offense against a coaching staff in transition.


Sunday's NIU game....
NIU - Ark St over 65, 2 units
NIU +1.5 v Ark St

Two high scoring offenses. Coaching change and player losses have affected ASU most on defense....lost DC and 2 key assistants, a starting cb, safety and nickel safety. Northern also has 2 key losses on D line. Should be a fun, high scoring, competitive game but I give slight edges on both sides of the ball to NIU.


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 Post subject: Re: ***Bowl games***
PostPosted: Sun Jan 08, 2012 2:45 pm 
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On further review, I'm not sure the Northern defense is going to be able to stop the Red Wolves. I'm no longer in love with my side bet on Northern.

I'm going to take back the other side and take ASU -120 on the money line. It's a one point middle, but that's not why I'm doing it. If the game lands on Ark State winning by 1, I win both ways. Any other outcome, I lose juice.

Ark State Money Line -120


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 Post subject: Re: ***Bowl games***
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 11:32 am 
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Well what started out good faded quickly Coast. I was on the same sides as you, thankfully I had the Giants and Broncos earlier in the day.


Looking forward to your thoughts on tonights game. Good Luck!!!

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 Post subject: Re: ***Bowl games***
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 5:40 pm 
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Yes Hawg, they left a lot of points on the field. i think 6 drives inside the 20 got no TDs and only 9 points -- 2 fg from ASU and 1/3 fgs for NIU with 2 misses. ASU gave it up on downs once inside the 20 and NIU also had another miss from further out. Had the right side of the total, wrong result.

Final bowl record -- 13-6-2

No opinion on the championship game at all. Slight leans Bama and over but not betting them.

Well my 17 days in this thread hopefully made somebody some coin. I will be around occasionally for hoops when I have something I really like or maybe NFL. Good luck all.


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 Post subject: Re: ***Bowl games***
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2012 10:45 am 
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Another season with the man's money in my pocket.

regular season: 20-13-5 +6.00
bowls: 6-5 +0.74
season: 26-18-5 +6.74

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