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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 4:27 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I'm really hoping this rolls over. I want to see it reach $1 billion.

People will go insane. It really could reach a level where a billionaire would consider buying every ticket.


Me too...but, I think it would take a year to fill out every number combination.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 4:28 pm 
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Ugueth Will Shiv You wrote:
From a statistical standpoint, you are twice more likely to score two holes-in-one in the same round than win this lottery.

$0

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 4:29 pm 
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doug - evergreen park wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I'm really hoping this rolls over. I want to see it reach $1 billion.

People will go insane. It really could reach a level where a billionaire would consider buying every ticket.


Me too...but, I think it would take a year to fill out every number combination.


Logistics could be a problem. But, I'm guessing if you told the lottery authority, whoever that is, that you want to buy $176 million worth of tickets that they'd figure out a way.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 4:30 pm 
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doug - evergreen park wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I'm really hoping this rolls over. I want to see it reach $1 billion.

People will go insane. It really could reach a level where a billionaire would consider buying every ticket.


Me too...but, I think it would take a year to fill out every number combination.

Let me know if you do this Dr. Ken. Then tell me where you goto buy your tickets. Don't want to get stuck behind you in line.

edit..slow in response


Last edited by beni hanna on Fri Mar 30, 2012 4:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 4:30 pm 
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spmack wrote:
but they ask for a SSN and they couldn't verify me....


that's not good.

btw: you would need to buy 175,711,536 tickets to guarantee a win.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 4:32 pm 
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When it was $500 mil, Darren Rovell sent a tweet saying that if you had the money and time to put in every combination, you would come out with a 39 million profit...but the time it would take to do it would be virtually impossible.


Doug, I dunno, I figured I'd call and check when its not as busy...its no big deal now, I'll just put $20 in quick picks at the gas station by my crib.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 4:33 pm 
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doug - evergreen park wrote:
spmack wrote:
but they ask for a SSN and they couldn't verify me....


that's not good.

btw: you would need to buy 175,711,536 tickets to guarantee a win.



CSFMB, can I borrow 175,711,531 dollars?

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 4:34 pm 
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spmack wrote:
When it was $500 mil, Darren Rovell sent a tweet saying that if you had the money and time to put in every combination, you would come out with a 39 million profit...but the time it would take to do it would be virtually impossible.


That's if you are a sole winner, which there was only a 23% of happening. But now, with the ticket sales far exceeding estimates, it's likely that there will be 3 winners.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 4:34 pm 
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Sorry, in your case I meant "soul" winner.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 4:38 pm 
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ba dump bump!

i'll be a soal winner.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 4:39 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
spmack wrote:
When it was $500 mil, Darren Rovell sent a tweet saying that if you had the money and time to put in every combination, you would come out with a 39 million profit...but the time it would take to do it would be virtually impossible.


That's if you are a sole winner, which there was only a 23% of happening. But now, with the ticket sales far exceeding estimates, it's likely that there will be 3 winners.

I'll be happy with that, if I'm one of the 3.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 4:40 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Sorry, in your case I meant "soul" winner.

You already have my vote, Dr. Ken. :D

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 4:42 pm 
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so...they are trying to tell us that 528 million tickets have been sold? that's how you get 3 winners...

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 5:01 pm 
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doug - evergreen park wrote:
so...they are trying to tell us that 528 million tickets have been sold? that's how you get 3 winners...


Yes. The estimate I saw was over 400 million and that was this morning before they upped the prize.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 5:02 pm 
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Krazy Ivan wrote:
Bought one ticket.

Gonna go drop $20 on some flowers...


Pussy

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 5:05 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I'm really hoping this rolls over. I want to see it reach $1 billion.

People will go insane. It really could reach a level where a billionaire would consider buying every ticket.

What are the odds that would work.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 5:07 pm 
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Nas wrote:
Krazy Ivan wrote:
Bought one ticket.

Gonna go drop $20 on some flowers...


Pussy


Yep. The flowers do almost guarantee it...

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 5:11 pm 
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Nas wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I'm really hoping this rolls over. I want to see it reach $1 billion.

People will go insane. It really could reach a level where a billionaire would consider buying every ticket.

What are the odds that would work.


If there is a large enough pot, there is an upper limit on how many tickets would be sold. I would expect this current pot would be about it. I expect people won't spend more to win $1.2 billion than they are to win $640 million. So, if you assume that upper limit is around 600 million tickets, then the expected number of winners would be 3, roughly. That would make the post-tax expected payout in excess of the $176 million it would cost for the tickets so, in theory, it's a really good bet.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 5:17 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Given the exceptionally large pot, the expected value of the $1 ticket actually would be greater than a $1. However, given the number of tickets sold, the higher likelihood that there will be multiple winners pushes that value back down to around $0.90, which is still exceptionally high for a drawing of this kind.

So, all in all, it's not a bad bet.

I saw a breakdown of this as of the 390 million

One guy had it valued at 1.40




This guy has an interesting take....




Chris Singleton says he’ll buy $10,000 worth of Mega Millions ticketsBy Dan Steinberg

Chris Singleton
✔@C_SING31 I'm about to drop 10000 on the lottery and cross my fingers #halfwaytoabillionaireifiwin
28 Mar 12 ReplyRetweetFavorite


Maybe you’ve heard, but the Mega Millions lottery jackpot prize thingee is at a record $500 million. Apparently, that entices some people who ordinarily would not throw their money away on an infinitesimal chance to get rich to suddenly throw their money away on an infinitesimal chance to get rich.

And apparently, one of those people is Wizards rookie Chris Singleton, who wrote on Twitter Wednesday night that he was about to spend $10,000 on Mega Millions tickets. He did not appear to be joking.

“You guys are already rich,” one follower pointed out.

“If I get richer, I will change the world for the better,” Singleton responded.

“I hope your kidding.. Your odds from buying 1 to 10,000 is insignificant,” someone else argued.

“Well if I get more than 10000 back then it was a smart investment.,” Singleton countered. “Whatever happens I'm dedicated to making more money.”

Thats beautiful man :cry: :lol:


“And to him, that’s probably like $100,” a sympathetic fan noted.

“Its an investment guys,” Singleton wrote
:lol: :lol:


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 5:20 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Nas wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I'm really hoping this rolls over. I want to see it reach $1 billion.

People will go insane. It really could reach a level where a billionaire would consider buying every ticket.

What are the odds that would work.


If there is a large enough pot, there is an upper limit on how many tickets would be sold. I would expect this current pot would be about it. I expect people won't spend more to win $1.2 billion than they are to win $640 million. So, if you assume that upper limit is around 600 million tickets, then the expected number of winners would be 3, roughly. That would make the post-tax expected payout in excess of the $176 million it would cost for the tickets so, in theory, it's a really good bet.

And, with my luck, he will be the guy right in front of me in line at 7-11.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 5:23 pm 
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:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 5:26 pm 
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doug - evergreen park wrote:
spmack wrote:
but they ask for a SSN and they couldn't verify me....


that's not good.

btw: you would need to buy 175,711,536 tickets to guarantee a win.


Which is exactly why I don't buy a ticket until the jackpot is $176 million. At $352 million, I will buy two, and so on.

Quite naturally, I have three for tonight.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 6:07 pm 
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Not "mega"' but I saw a story a couple months ago about a couple that plays a lotto in new jersey once the pot gets to a certain level. They have a deal with a store/stores and they let them know they are coming so that they are ready to print "quick pics" for the entire time period leading up to the drawing.

I don't remember the specifics of why their "system" works, but it has something to do with when the pot rolls over, all the extra money doesn't go straight to the jackpot, it bumps up all the smaller prizes. (With "mega"' everything but the jackpot is always the same) The guy said there have been drawings they lose 10's of thousands, but statistically, the odds are in their favor and most times they come out ahead.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 6:21 pm 
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spmack wrote:
Ugueth Will Shiv You wrote:
From a statistical standpoint, you are twice more likely to score two holes-in-one in the same round than win this lottery.

$0

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If either of us win, let's buy Mt. Olympus

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 6:28 pm 
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Here a link about my rambling post above. This lotto caps at 2 million grand prize. So once it reaches that, all the money put into it keeps bumping up the smaller winners. According to the link, once it caps, anyone that spends $100,000 on tickets is virtually a lock to make money.

http://www.opposingviews.com/i/entertai ... y-millions


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 6:39 pm 
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casual fan wrote:
Here a link about my rambling post above. This lotto caps at 2 million grand prize. So once it reaches that, all the money put into it keeps bumping up the smaller winners. According to the link, once it caps, anyone that spends $100,000 on tickets is virtually a lock to make money.

http://www.opposingviews.com/i/entertai ... y-millions
Oh wow, that's pretty cool. If I ever win $100K in the lottery, I'm buying all the tickets for this one!

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 6:52 pm 
Frank Coztansa wrote:
you cannot play a round of golf for $1...or even $5 or $10*.

Unfortunately this little gem is no longer available, but before they turned it into mansions, there was a shithole course up in Mundelien called Indian Valley where you could get on for under 10 after like 4. At least in the late 90's you could.


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