Bodemeister is officially in for this Saturday.

IB, I am looking for your 6000 word report.

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Ditto.

Hierro, who won the Derby Trial is out.

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It's not required. The horse cannot lose unless he falls down.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Yep, because he won two ago? #sarcasm

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Well, there have been 10 horses in the 138 year history of the Kentucky Derby that hit the half-mile marker as fast as Bodemeister. Not one of them finished better than tenth. The Preakness is 1/16 of a mile shorter, the turns are tighter, and the track is generally far more speed-favoring than Churchill.

This thing is going to come back with Bodemeister on top of Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, or maybe Went The Day Well. There's money to be made, boys!

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I'm with you JORR.

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I'm guessing Irish Boy will concur on Bodemeister. Maybe he doesn't like him quite as much as I do. He's a bet for me at even money or better.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I would be surprised if Bodemeister didn't win, but it's a horse race, so who knows. I'm just kinda curious to see what he and I'll Have Another go off the board at.

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Fire Phil Emery

When will we see odds for the race?

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Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

The field will be announced on Wednesday.

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I hope to field a champion horse in this someday, just so I can hear the announcer say "Down the stretch comes BOSS BOSS I AM UR BOSS"...

...is Liaison in this one?

Wednesday, but horse racing is paramutuel so unless you've got a guy, you won't be locked in until the gate opens.

Generally speaking, big favorites go off at race time at lower odds than they are given on the morning line. So don't be surprised if Bodemeister is listed as, say, 8-5, but leaves the gate at even money.

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Fire Phil Emery

I would be very surprised if he went off at even money. I'll Have Another will take at least some of the money going into that race (deserved or not) because the Derby winner almost always goes off as the favorite. 2009 was the last time the Derby winner wasn't the favorite, and that horse wasn't even in the Derby (Rachel Alexandra -- and honestly, a real shame she wasn't in the Derby.) 2005 Giacomo was the winner of the Derby and was 6-1 while Afleet Alex went off at 3-1 (and won the Preakness), but Giacomo was 50-1 in the Derby. I'll Have Another was 15-1, so my guess is you'll see him down to 4-1 at least for the Preakness. It is possible you could get one horse at even money and another at 4-1, but the rest of the field would need to be pretty shitastic, and I just don't see that happening here.

Part of the joy of parimutuel betting is that you are betting against other people -- it is very similar to playing poker. The house takes a percentage of the pot, but then the rest of the pot goes out to whoever plays it correctly. If you are able to bet better than the average Joe, you should be winning at these races. The Derby is legendary for massive exacta and trifecta payouts if you are able to hit one just because people are playing all kinds of crazy theories on their once a year bets. The problem is that with the extra number of horses, the variability of the race increases, and you can get screwed over due to bad trips (especially with a horse coming off the pace like Union Rags.) One good thing about the Preakness is that the field is (at least recently) always smaller than the Derby, so you don't get idiot horses in there that don't deserve to be there and end up holding up other well qualified horses.

I certainly don't see a triple crown winner here, so I would venture a guess that we could end up with a Preakness champ and then the Belmont won by a horse who skipped the Preakness, but time will tell I suppose.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

Although it's not the Kentucky Derby, you've still got a lot of people betting who aren't regular players. Personally, I don't see how Bodemeister wouldn't be the favorite, but everyone saw I'll Have Another run right by him in the stretch. I'm not sure the average guy really knows what he was watching and just how difficult what Bodemeister was trying to do actually was.

The big flaw for Bodemeister is that he has yet to show any versatility. So far all he knows is the front end. I don't think that's going to change on Saturday. That leaves him susceptible to the kind of grueling pace that he faced in Kentucky. But this time it doesn't appear there is going to be anyone in there to challenge him. It's pretty obvious that he is by far the fastest three-year-old going right now. I mean, these horses aren't close. If the fractions are anywhere near reasonable, he should just run away in the stretch.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

2009 is probably the closest comparison to this race. Rachel Alexandra went off at 8-5. I expect Bodemeister to be lower than that. I think only three or so other horses will take any decent amount of money.

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Fire Phil Emery

Without seeing the odds, I like Went the day Well and Cozzetti.

Guys, if you all couldn't tell from my Derby post, I am pretty much an amatuer at this

But from what I've been reading, everyone is saying that it's pretty much a race between Bodemeister and I'll Have Another, with Went The Day Well and Creative Cause in the mix. So, should I do a Trifecta and Superfecta Box with those 4, and how much should I bet?


Spaulding, Cozzetti has not ran well. His last 4 races he's come in 4th, 3rd, 4th, and 8th.

edit: If you're looking for a dark horse, I'd say to look into Teeth of The Dog.

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The trouble with boxing horses is that you are buying every combination equally. Let's say you box those four for a trifecta. That is 24 combinations. Do you like the Went the Day Well/Creative Cause/I'll Have Another combo as much as Bodemeister/I'll Have Another/Creative Cause combo? Granted, the first one will probably pay much more for the same wager, but you often get a lot of combos you don't really like.

If, say, you think Bodemeister is unbeatable here and you want to spend $24 on trifectas at $1 apiece, just key Bodemeister on top. Here are two basic options available to you then:

1.) Bodemeister on top with the other three in the second and third positions. At $24, you get each of these combos for $4 rather than $1. You need Bodemeister to win, obviously, but you also get four times the payout if he does compared to just boxing.

2.) No matter what, if you use only the four logical choices, the trifecta won't pay great. And all it takes is a clunker in the third position to muck everything up. So perhaps go Bodemeister on top, with those other three in the second position, and those three plus another six horses in the third position. At $1 apiece, this still costs you $24, plus you have some insurance if one of the illogical horses clunks up for third, plus that will actually pay pretty decently since those not as many people will use those horses.

Especially for people looking to wager the exotics, how you structure your bets is often just as important as who you bet.

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Fire Phil Emery

http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/profes ... o-consider

Preakness analysis: Here are 3 key trends for bettors to consider

BY TOM VALLEDOLMO


When handicappers and bettors begin to analyze, probe and dissect the Preakness Stakes, the middle jewel in thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown, there are three important trends they need to consider.

First, and foremost, this race, unlike its two more prestigious partners -- the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes -- produces far fewer surprises. In fact, long shot winners in the Preakness are very much the exception rather than the rule.

That’s not saying the occasional “bomb” can’t spring an upset. It happened last year, in fact, when 12-1 Shackleford stalked the early pace behind Flash Point, took over at the top of the stretch and held off the determined run of Derby champion Animal Kingdom to win by a half length.

But, that marked the first time since Bernardini paid $27.80 in 2006 (when the ill-fated Barbaro, the favorite, broke down soon after the start) that the Preakness winner paid double figures.

The number of low-priced winners over the past dozen years has been staggering: Lookin at Lucky ($6.80 in 2010), Rachel Alexandra ($5.60 in 2009), Big Brown ($2.40 in 2008), Curlin ($8.80 in 2007), Afleet Alex ($8.60 in 2005), Smarty Jones ($3.40 in 2004), Funny Cide ($5.80 in 2003), War Emblem ($7.60 in 2002) and Point Given ($6.60 in 2001).

So, when the dozen or so horses line up Saturday for the the 137th running of the Preakness at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Md., you can be pretty confident that the winner will come from one of the top four betting choices.

The main reason is that most of the horses in the field have already shown their true colors in the Kentucky Derby and there’s very little guesswork left when bettors are trying to sort out their true abilities. The Derby has a way of exposing horses’ strengths and weaknesses.

Trend No. 2 is that the winner is almost always a horse who ran in the Derby. Only three horses who have skipped (or couldn’t get into) the Kentucky Derby have won in the last 15 years. And, that’s not because new faces haven’t shown up for the race.

Over that same span, 91 non-Derby starters have lined up in the starting gate (54 percent) at Pimlico but just Red Bullet (2000), Bernardini (2006) and the super filly Rachel Alexandra (2009) were able to get the job done. Last year, nine fresh faces threw down the gauntlet to Animal Kingdom but none could crack the exacta as Shackleford and the Derby winner finished 1-2.

And, finally, the Preakness is run over a speed-favoring strip at Pimlico which, historically, has made it difficult for horses which don’t have early, tactical speed. The usually lightning-fast surface and the track’s tight turns hinder the come-from-behind types, making it almost impossible for them to mount any serious rallies late in the game. Horses either on the lead or close to the pace throughout definitely have an advantage.

So, with a probable field of 12 or 13 shaping up for this year’s race, the trends say the winner will be a horse who will be heavily bet, has early lick and who ran in the Derby.

Can you say Bodemeister?

Bob Baffert’s freakishly fast colt ran a monster race in the Derby, clicking off ridiculously fast fractions of :45 1/5, 1:09 4/5 and 1:35 while leading throughout, yet still hung tough until the final 100 yards before succumbing to I’ll Have Another’s relentless charge.

At the 16th pole (the distance of the Preakness, which is shorter than the Derby) he was still in front and striding out beautifully before he began to tire in the shadow of the finish line.

With the defections of Hansen and Trinniberg, both speedy colts who do their best racing on the lead, Bodemeister could have it all his own way on the front end and jockey Mike Smith can slow things down a bit and save the son of Empire Maker’s energy for the stretch run.

The Derby winner has early speed as well, however, as he showed in his wins in the Robert B. Lewis and Santa Anita Derby, so it doesn’t appear that he’s going to let Bodemeister out of his sights.

Creative Cause, who ran a sneaky good race while finishing fifth in the Derby, Went The Day Well (4th in Louisville) and, possibly, Daddy Nose Best, who flattened out and finished 10th at Churchill, could be primed for an upset as well.

But, if you look at the trends, Bodemeister, who figures to go off the betting favorite at 9-5 or lower, and the Derby champion, I’ll Have Another, the probable second choice at around 2-1, should be a very difficult tandem to beat on Saturday.

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Post Position and odds will be announced at 4PM our time. Only 11 horses, as Guyana Star Dweej pulled out. He was one of those 50-1 horses anyway, so it's no big deal.

Edit: It will actually be at 5PM our time.

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Where you make money on the Preakness is the exotics. Normally there is a local Pimlico horse who sneaks in and runs well over the track. I'll Have Another benefitted from a great ride and the fractions and all the horses withering up front to win. Bodemeister eats up this track and wins Saturday.

I agree that I'll have Another benefited from a nice trip, but I also agree that Bodemeister is the best horse in the race. But I do think IHA isn't getting quite enough credit. Sure, he had a great trip, but horses with pace flexibility give themselves nice trips. A Bodemeister or Union Rags might be better all things considered, but they are also very much at the mercy of how the race is run. I'll Have Another has at least shown that he can adjust to how quickly the race is being run.

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Fire Phil Emery

Looks like all the contenders ended up somewhere in the middle. Not that it matters all that much; I can't think of a Preakness that really depended upon the post position recently.

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Fire Phil Emery

PP Name Odds



1. Tiger Walk 30-1


2. Teeth of the Dog 15-1

3. Pretension 30-1

4. Zetterholm 20-1

5. Went The Day Well 6-1

6. Creative Cause 6-1

7. Bodemeister 8-5

8. Daddy Nose Best 12-1

9. I'll Have Another 5-2

10. Optimizer 30-1

11. Cozzetti 30-1

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I agree with you in principle but when you look at the chart, he closed the last quarter in a paltry 26 seconds. That's not going to win very many races going forward. By comparison, Animal Kingdom came home in 24 seconds last year. (Nearly 10 lengths better of a close using 1/5 of a second per length)

I'm still looking at Teeth of The Dog to come in 3rd, or 4th.

I read somewhere that no horse has won from the 1, 2 or 3 post since 1994, and that was Tabasco Cat who had 3.6-1 odds.

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So that pretty much means he is either winning the deal or finishing 6th or worse

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"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

I still think it's possible Bodemeister can rate in a hole and we just haven't seen it in a race yet. I wouldn't be completely shocked to see him laying second or third after the break. They worked him from behind Jemima's Pearl at Churchill. Granted, it appears he couldn't wait to get past her. In any case, I just don't think there's anything in here that's going to run with him.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZ9XQV8qfK4

And if he goes to The Belmont he'll cakewalk. People mistakenly believe that's a closer's race because it's such a long route, but it really favors speed because every jock in the race figures he's got a long time to catch the leaders. You get a strong horse on the engine and it's bye-bye, Charlie.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I'm the same guy who won 270 bucks on Shackleford last year too.

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