Chicago Bulls projected roster as of May 23, 2007

PRIMARY ROTATION:

G - Kirk Hinrich
G - Ben Gordon
G - Thabo Sefolosha

F - Luol Deng
F - Tyrus Thomas
F - Andres Nocioni

FC - Ben Wallace
FC - #9/S&T/MLE

ROLE PLAYERS:

PG - Chris Duhon
SG - Adrian Griffin
SF - Viktor Khryapa
FC - Allen/Brown/LLE

INACTIVES:

Players like Barrett and/or Andriuskevicius (if they’re kept, which is unlikely), as well as 2nd round and/or undrafted prospects. The Bulls hold two 2nd round picks, the 49 & the 51.

DRAFT BOARD:

Until further notice (ie: official measurements, workouts, etc), I would submit the following as my draft board (for the Bulls, not overall). Going 7 deep, since the first 2 picks are pretty obvious. Players with an asterisk next to their name indicate picks that would require a subsequent move. For example, drafting Corey Brewer would likely force you to sign & trade Nocioni for a big man to back up Wallace, etc.

Brandan Wright*
Al Horford
Yi Jianlian
Joakim Noah
Corey Brewer*
Mike Conley*
Spencer Hawes

2 forwards that are worth a serious look, in case they end up moving Noce this summer:

Jeff Green*
Julian Wright*

EARLY MOCK FOR THE TOP 8:

POR - C - Greg Oden
SEA - SF - Kevin Durant
ATL - PG - Mike Conley
MEM - PF - Brandan Wright
BOS - PF - Yi Jianlian
MIL - PF - Al Horford
MIN - GF - Corey Brewer
CHA - PF - Joakim Noah

RESIGNINGS:

Resigning Nocioni is a given. The only question is whether we’ll keep him or execute a sign & trade, and that question will likely be answered on draft night. Since only a few teams have cap space and Noce isn’t among the elite FAs available, I say with 99% confidence that we’ll be able to lock him down at a rate near the MLE. Clearly, the path of least resistance would be to draft a big at 9 (perhaps Noah or Hawes), and then keep Nocioni and the rest of your team in tact. But if they’re not impressed with the bigs available in the 8-10 range, it’s certainly possible that they’ll take the best available forward and then in mid-July move Noce (perhaps w/ other small pieces included) in exchange for an established NBA big.

The only other meaningful expiring contract is PJ Brown’s. There have been strong indications (by PJ, teammates, and beat writers) that he’s done. And if he is, I’m happy for him. He played like a champ for the first half of game 6, which I suspect is about all he had left to give. It's a good way to close a pretty solid career.

Malik Allen, a UFA, is sort of a safety net for them. If they draft a big who's a project like Hawes, and decide not to spend any money outside of Noce, Deng, & Gordon, then bringing back Malik for around $2 mil isn't a bad idea. I doubt Hawes would be ready yet to play 20+ minutes a night, which is generally required of the first big man off the bench. You'd want somebody that could give you a competent 8-10 minutes and take a little pressure off the rookie.

Sweetney is gone, and that's all I have to say about that.

POTENTIAL MLE TARGETS:

Primoz Brezec, Anderson Varejao (RFA, but the Cavs are right up against the lux tax threshold, and may not exceed it on account of Varejao), Jamaal Magloire, Chris Mihm, Mikki Moore, Melvin Ely, Joe Smith

Morris Peterson would be a decent fallback plan if they don't/can't sign a big and Noce gets moved instead

EXTENSIONS:

in the neighborhood of...

Luol Deng - 5 years for $60 mil
Ben Gordon - 5 years for $55 mil

Hinrich was given 5 for $47.5 last year. I expect Gordon to get a bit more than Kirk, and Deng a bit more than Gordon.

MISCELLANEOUS NOTES:

BYC - Hinrich & Nocioni
PPP - Deng & Gordon (assuming they're given extensions)

largest expiring - Duhon (just under $3.25 mil)
2nd largest expiring - Khryapa (just under $2 mil)

a sign & trade w/ Nocioni, plus the expiring contracts of Duhon & Khryapa, could net you a big man making approximately $11 mil

virtually immoveable - Wallace ($44 mil remaining over 3 years)

I'm sure I left a few things out. Will make some additions over the next couple of days.

Bucket - I know he's not a character guy but I think I saw Ruben Patterson's name on a UFA list - how would he fit this team as a swing man should they get rid of Noce?

Patterson played very well for Milwaukee this past season, and is a pretty good defensive player.

And a Kobe-stopper!

Buckets - Couldn't you get a deal done for Randolph (for example) if you offered Noce, Duhon, Krapola, and the #9 pick ???

Obviously, the Bulls would have to sign and trade Nocioni, and draft for Portland's need at #9, but could something like this happen cap wise because the draft pick cap value has to be a few million, right ?

Oops. Yeah, I didnt see a warrant was out for him.

No. The Bulls can't sign & trade Noce until mid July per league rules. The draft is late June. Also, they wouldn't send Noce and a top 10 pick in the draft for someone as unreliable as Randolph (aren't you the guy who wanted Gasol for a pile of dogshit? why would you pay more for Randolph?).

As for Patterson, he's a sex offender, so I highly doubt Pax would go after him. A warrant was just issued for his arrest, again.

I think it's been relatively proven that you don't always get equal value in terms of talent. Rasheed Wallace was given away for nothing, Jason Kidd almost was given away for nothing...That was my point for Pau Gasol - cap room is worth a lot in the NBA, especially when the team is having major financial difficulites like Memphis. Even if they were going to spend the cap room, they could potentially land a Chauncey Billups or some other all-star caliber player.

Also, I don't think trade Nocioni, a role/bench player, and a #9 pick for a 20-10 guy is giving up too much. Randolph has the huge contract, and attitude problems so I doubt Paxson would do it, but I do understand that it would have to take place in July.

Couple Q's:
1) Is Mihm excpected to be back at full mobility for the start of the season?
2) Any international bigs that may be flying under the radar?

_________________
“Mmmm. Move over, eggs. Bacon just got a new best friend - fudge.”

BD, you’d be giving up Noce, 2 bench players with expiring contracts, and a prospect that would likely be taken 5th or 6th in an average NBA draft, not to mention the fact that you’d be giving up a 2nd player from your main rotation. You would gut a lot of your team for a guy you might seriously regret bringing in. Not only chemistry-wise in the short term, but financially his contract would destroy any chance of them having cap space again in 3 years. He’s a good player, but if Pax wouldn’t rock the boat for Gasol, he’s not going to do it for Randolph.

And the whole thing is based on a complicated series of dominos anyway. The draft is late June, you can’t S&T Noce until mid July. You’d have to draft a player that fits both your team’s needs as well as Portland’s, in case the Blazers didn’t want to do this, or decided to go after a SF with the MLE (Mo Pete, for example, and they still have Darius Miles by the way), or maybe they even give Martell Webster another shot to win the job. Plus, I’m not certain that you can trade a prospect immediately after signing him. You can’t do that with a veteran player, they can’t be traded until December 15th I believe, if they signed a new contract that offseason. So this whole thing is very hairy and very unlikely. They had their chance to make a big move 2 years in a row. They didn’t pull the trigger. This is the team. Next offseason, Kirk will have a contract that’s moveable and big enough to draw some water.

Lastly, BD, if you want to move the pick, think about bigs that are still under their rookie contracts. You could move Duhon with the 9 and get something done.



Mustang, the last thing I read on Mihm said he’s on track for recovery by July. We should hear more in the coming weeks, especially considering he’s up for new paper.



I would love to say yes, but if they’re under the radar of NBA scouting departments, then you can be pretty sure that most fans would have never heard of them. Pax will do his homework, though. He was smart enough to take Hinrich when a lot of people were pushing for Pietrus in ’03. He signed Nocioni. It’s a bit early on Thabo, but I like what I see so far. I could see them going across the water on 1 of the 2nd round picks, maybe to hold his rights and leave him overseas to get PT.

Making the type of trade that I suggested for Randolph would gut the bench, but, then again, maybe not. Victor may play more next season, but he couldn't get off the bench this season, and Duhon is probably going to get moved this off-season. We'd still have Thaba and Thomas coming off the bench as well.

I agree, though, I don't see Paxson making a big trade, especially for a potential trouble-maker, and we 'll probably sign one of the free agents you suggested as a supplement to Thomas/Deng improving their interior games, which is probably where the real improvement is at with our 'in the paint' scoring.

BD, I don’t really give a shit about Duhon or Viktor, the real problem is that your rotation would only be 7 deep. And if they took on Randolph’s contract, and paid Deng & Gordon, I can’t imagine them also using the MLE to sign that last big man you’d need. Your starting 5 would be: Kirk, Gordon, Luol, Randolph, and Wallace. Off the bench, you’d only have Thabo & Tyrus. You’d need another big, because I don’t want to see Malik Allen or some 2nd round pick getting 20+ minutes a night.

The only realistic way to make this happen is to also S&T Brown, which I’m not sold on. I think PJ is done. If he wants to cash one more paycheck, and doesn’t mind moving himself & possibly his family to the Northwest, then maybe. I’m not counting on it, but who knows what sort of conversations Pax & PJ have had behind closed doors.

Can we sign PJ to a 1 year, 12 million dollar deal, and trade him ? Doesn't that violate some sort of rule (is the Larry Bird rule still in rule ?) ? If they can do that, this would obviously be the ideal solution.

Don't get me wrong though - I don't see Paxson making a blockbuseter for the reasons you site, and think we'll add 2 players (the draft pick and MLE) to what we have.

Another question I do have is the 2nd rounders. Normally, and we probably still should, we'd just write off those picks as probably future cuts, or 12th man at best, but I like to grab players who have been productive in college, but who don't get graded highly becuase they can't jump out of the gym. Millisap for Utah was the best rebounder in college...Duhon here had a nice college career...so did Boozer. Obviously, the chances of us hitting on a good player still isn't good, but do you have any names of guys that may not grade out well for scouts, but who can play at the next level ?

I don’t believe so. I’ll have to look it up. But for one thing, I’m pretty certain you can’t do a S&T on a 1 year deal. I think the minimum is 3 years, though I don’t believe you are required to guarantee all 3 years. Either way, I suspect there are definitely regulations in place for this sort of thing, will poke around and see what I can find out.



In my opinion, the draft is about 40 deep on legitmate first round talent. Several players (primarily perimeter types) are going to fall to the top of the 2nd round. I’d love to see Pax package the 49, the 51, and some cash in order to move into the 30s. There are going to be a few quality guards there, guys that would normally go in the first round. Another thought is Sean Williams from Boston College. Somebody may take him in rd 1, because he definitely has the talent, but if he falls into the 2nd round, he won’t last long. I would also consider taking a PG in rd 2, especially if Duhon is going to be moved.

Sorry, forgot to list some perimeter names:

Rodney Stuckey, Arron Afflalo, Daequan Cook, Brandon Rush, Alando Tucker, Morris Almond

Any of those guys could slip into the 2nd round and all would be exceptional value at that point.

What's your thoughts on looking to move up in the second round to grab Wilson Chandler? I'll hang up and listen for my answer....

Saw this in Peter Vescey's column today:

Sean Williams, a 6-foot-10 shot-blocking center who was kicked off the Boston College team for alleged marijuana use, will work out for the Knicks next month, according to a source. Williams is on Thomas' radar with the No. 23 pick in the NBA Draft.

Williams, not listed on most mock drafts because of his serious off-court issues, had 75 blocked shots in 15 games before he was booted in January. His stock is expected to rise after workouts.

A Boston College source said Williams had been suspended before for similar issues. Players are tested in the NBA five times a year for marijuana use. Drafting Williams would play into Thomas' mantra of building through "unconventional" ways. Williams may be at Wednesday's pre-draft camp in Orlando.


In my opinion, the draft is about 40 deep on legitmate first round talent. Several players (primarily perimeter types) are going to fall to the top of the 2nd round. I’d love to see Pax package the 49, the 51, and some cash in order to move into the 30s. There are going to be a few quality guards there, guys that would normally go in the first round. Another thought is Sean Williams from Boston College. Somebody may take him in rd 1, because he definitely has the talent, but if he falls into the 2nd round, he won’t last long. I would also consider taking a PG in rd 2, especially if Duhon is going to be moved.[/quote]