I haven't ever heard a bad thing about him.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

What does that have to do with Dempster being a supposedly good pitcher who just happens to face a guy(s) who pitches better more than half the time? He's not facing a Hall of Famer in every start, is he? So he's just unlucky? If that's the case, why the fuck would I want a black cat on my team?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

He's got a 2.25 era. Who routinely gives up less runs than he does? Are you talking about his 5-5 record? The Cubs score the least amount of runs in the league. His ERA is 2fucking25. He's done his job.

You dont think Dempster is a good pitcher? seriously???

I think he's a very average pitcher and his results bear that fact out.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Which results?

You do understand what results are, don't you?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

JORR, how do you reconcile the fact that the two starting pitchers are facing completely different lineups?


I mean, do you give the Rick Heiling, Kirk Reuter and Yu Darvish's credit for their Win totals even with a 4.50 ERA or whatever?

I've already explained time and time again that the difference between two big league lineups in the space of a single game is negligible. I've allowed that an historically awful offense like the one playing for Seattle might have an effect, but it is far from the norm. For the most part, any two teams facing each other will be separated in offensive output by less than a single run per game on average.

Now, if a team averages a half run per game more than another team, over the course of 162 games, that's huge. But in the space of a single game, it's nothing. In fact, it's clearly impossible to score a fraction of a run.

So, now look at that single game. You have the guy you're telling me is a great pitcher by virtue of a low ERA, likely a full run better than the average pitcher he's facing. He's facing an offense that scores .4 or .3 more runs per game than his own. And you really think he can lose more than half his games and still be "good" because of that slight difference?

Yu Darvish is better than his ERA suggests because of where he plays. Just like Nelson Cruz isn't as good as his OPS suggests. Why? That's right. Because of where he plays.

Today's game is today's game. "Run support" isn't real. Quintana hasn't gotten it and he's gotten no decisions. Last night he got it and still got a no decision. Now, I can't blame a guy in today's game for going 8 innings scoreless and not getting a decision. That's pretty much on the manager that removed him. And clearly Quintana has pitched very well. But elite pitchers have gaudy W/L records. They don't come out and have another dope blow their games (see: Verlander). At least not consistently. They simply allow less runs than the guys they face.

Finally, it should be easier than ever for a starting pitcher to produce a .600 winning percentage. He's only expected to go seven innings. He can't take a loss late.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Run support IS real, JORR

I think you are underestimating what a half a run means in a game.

Of course you cant score half a run, but the difference between the teams offensive prowess is THAT much.


I would tend to agree with your theory if we were looking for ELITE pitchers. But after the Verlanders, Halladays, and Brigham's of the world....most pitchers arent dominant enough to control the entire start....they still have to be sorted out and the ones with low E.R.A.'s are better.

If you pitch for the worst offense in the league, you are at a disadvantage in every start you make.

_________________

But if you're that good, you should be able to overcome a fraction of a run. The disparity between your great ERA and that of the guys you face is usually greater than the difference in offenses.

And "run support" isn't real. It's just the ERA of the opposing pitcher(s) on the days you face them. Roy Oswalt lost a couple games by allowing double digit runs this season. His team didn't score much in those games. When you look at his averages at the end of the season, you could say he didn't get "run support". That isn't why he lost. He lost because he was horseshit.

Pitchers pitch the games they're in. Today's game is its own entity. It's totally and completely unrelated to all other games that have previously occurred or those that will occur afterward. The object is to allow less runs than the guy(s) faced on THAT GIVEN DAY. Whatever that number may be is immaterial. The object is not to lose 1-0 so Terry's Peeps can say how great you pitched.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Dempster wants to go be in LA so he can live on his buddy Ted Lilly's couch while looking for random Hollywood women that love Harry Caray impersonations.

_________________

Never thought I'd see the stat of ERA be dismissed as some sort of new-fangled nonsense.

It's not new-fangled or nonsense. It's just a number. But to compare ERAs between guys who have pitched under wildly varying conditions isn't very scientific.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

As Dan Jiggetts used to say..."it's good to have a plan".

_________________
Go Cubs!!!!

in 87 Nolan Ryan had a 8-16 record. He started 34 games. He sucked right? His era was 2.70 and he had one of his lowest whips in his career. But he sucks according to JORR Gammons. Sillyness.

Jack Morris won 21 games with an era over 4in 92.
Andy Pettitte won 20 with era over 4 in 03.
David Wells and Tim Hudson in 2000 won 20 with era'a over 4.

JORR says they had better years than Ryans in 87. NO.

But Dempster has Darwin Barney and the boys on offense for him. And he sucks.

Growing up being a pitcher all the way through college, put me on a team that scores a bunch of runs, and I will show you double digit victories. It's a hell of a lot easier to pitch when you have run support, and in the end, victories are all that matters.

Correct! You know every time you take the ball, you have to be damn fucking good in order for you to even have a shot at getting a W.

How is it that he was so great, so "dominating", yet in 26 of 34 games that he actually pitched (not some theoretical universe where he allowed 2.76 runs in each game) the mostly ordinary pitchers he faced performed as well or better than he did?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Were you a good pitcher? What was your ERA? How does a team "score a bunch of runs"? That's right. By knocking the hell out of an opposing pitcher. Did you ever stop to think that there might be a guy out there thinking that if he faced you every game, he'd have double digit victories?

If a guy actually pitched to an ERA in every single game, what you're suggesting would make sense. But no one allows exactly 2.76 runs each game. An ERA is created from various performances. Obvious? Apparently not to some of you.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

In July of 87, he started 5 games. He allowed 2,1,1,2, and 1 ER in those starts.

He lost all 5.

_________________

What did the pitchers you believe weren't as good as he was allow in each of those games?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Based on the fact that he lost every one, I'll say less.

My point is it doesn't diminish the pitcher because the offense sucks.

It's the Felix Hernandez thing all over again.

_________________

But his offense didn't "suck". It played half its games in a place where it was rather difficult to score runs. Nolan Ryan pitched about half his games in that same place, leading to a low ERA. When Ryan faced other pitchers under the same conditions (and some of them had marginally better offenses than his own, but Houston that year was a strong offensive team), most often the guys he opposed performed better than he did.

Felix Hernandez' team is an extreme outlier. In the vast majority of games, the offensive difference between the two teams playing is less than a run per game.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

We disagree on the significance of ERA.

Again.

Just when I think I'm out, JORR pulls me back in!

Damn, that could be aimed at Kid Cairo too.

_________________

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=320802113
Dempster's team won, guess he outpitched CJ Wilson!

This is hilarious. So pitcher A pitches 9 innings a game and gives up 10 runs a game. His era is 10.00.

He sucks. But his offense scores 11 every night. After 30 starts he's 30-0 and had the best year in history according to JORR Gammons.

Someone's got a Billy Bean poster above their headboard.

Actually, JORR's take would be the complete opposite of Billy BeanE's theory, but whatever


Godspeed

If you can show me such a pitcher, I will admit that he is great.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

That would go down as one of the best years of all time. You really think 30-0 could ever be a fluke?

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!