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PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:04 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
We're at a better place, and yet still a confusing one. I think the difficulty is defining valuable. Disregarding team wins, etc, Mike Trout was better this year. That's accounting for hitting, fielding and base running. He was a better player. To me, that's the MVP. I understand your argument, if Trout was on the Cubs and was replaced with me, what's it matter? Either way the Cubs suck really bad. But this is no way reflects how good Trout was, even if it were for the Cubs. He was individually great and this is an individual award.

I can see the different in how much it matters in the grand scheme of things, if Trout were on the Cubs compared to the Tigers. But that gap doesn't exist. The angels were better than the Tigers. So I feel like that entire argument is off the table.

To me, this is not a team award, it's an individual one. Mike Trout had a better individual year.


Yeah, like I said, I don't think the results of their teams is relevant in this case. I would suggest that the respective teams were fairly equivalent. A strong case can certainly be made that the Angels were better.

But I'm not convinced that Trout had the better year either. I understand that determining value is what statistics like WAR or win shares are driving at. And they do a decent job. But I don't really think there is a consensus on the weights of each component as illustrated by the fact that the formula are being changed all the time.

And then we get in to subjective opinion which isn't invalid, though some people approach it as if it were. Statisticians ignore things that cannot be measured. That's their job. There are no such constrictions upon you or me or danny bernstein. For example, Nick Swisher is a valuable player. His worst season came with the White Sox when they attempted to bat him leadoff for a good part of the season. Is there a correlation between his order position and his performance? Maybe, maybe not. But there certainly could be.

I tend to give more weight to a strong leadoff man, simply because they are so rare in the game today. ( I just realized as I type this that you may have forced me to talk myself into the superiority of Trout. :lol: ) But Miguel Cabrera is the best middle of the order run producer in the game today. If I had to have a player get a hit to save my life, I'm taking him.

And this is a little off-topic but it relates in a way, but it gets me thinking about the way the game is viewed today and the way the walk is valued. If there were a hypothetical player with a .000 BA who simply walked every time, would he be the greatest player ever?


I would just argue that no matter how you slice up the stats, weight them etc, when considering hitting, defense and base running, Trout was better.

I won't argue that Cabrera isn't the best middle of the order hitter. But that's not what the award is for.


Last edited by Bucky Chris on Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:48 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
We're at a better place, and yet still a confusing one. I think the difficulty is defining valuable. Disregarding team wins, etc, Mike Trout was better this year. That's accounting for hitting, fielding and base running. He was a better player. To me, that's the MVP. I understand your argument, if Trout was on the Cubs and was replaced with me, what's it matter? Either way the Cubs suck really bad. But this is no way reflects how good Trout was, even if it were for the Cubs. He was individually great and this is an individual award.

I can see the different in how much it matters in the grand scheme of things, if Trout were on the Cubs compared to the Tigers. But that gap doesn't exist. The angels were better than the Tigers. So I feel like that entire argument is off the table.

To me, this is not a team award, it's an individual one. Mike Trout had a better individual year.


Yeah, like I said, I don't think the results of their teams is relevant in this case. I would suggest that the respective teams were fairly equivalent. A strong case can certainly be made that the Angels were better.

But I'm not convinced that Trout had the better year either. I understand that determining value is what statistics like WAR or win shares are driving at. And they do a decent job. But I don't really think there is a consensus on the weights of each component as illustrated by the fact that the formula are being changed all the time.

And then we get in to subjective opinion which isn't invalid, though some people approach it as if it were. Statisticians ignore things that cannot be measured. That's their job. There are no such constrictions upon you or me or danny bernstein. For example, Nick Swisher is a valuable player. His worst season came with the White Sox when they attempted to bat him leadoff for a good part of the season. Is there a correlation between his order position and his performance? Maybe, maybe not. But there certainly could be.

I tend to give more weight to a strong leadoff man, simply because they are so rare in the game today. ( I just realized as I type this that you may have forced me to talk myself into the superiority of Trout. :lol: ) But Miguel Cabrera is the best middle of the order run producer in the game today. If I had to have a player get a hit to save my life, I'm taking him.

And this is a little off-topic but it relates in a way, but it gets me thinking about the way the game is viewed today and the way the walk is valued. If there were a hypothetical player with a .000 BA who simply walked every time, would he be the greatest player ever?


I would just argue that no matter how you slice up the stats, weight them etc, when considering hitting, defense and base running, Trout was better.

I won't argue that Cabrera isn't the best middle of the Ryder hitter. But that's not what the are is for.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:54 am 
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Terry's Peeps wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
We're at a better place, and yet still a confusing one. I think the difficulty is defining valuable. Disregarding team wins, etc, Mike Trout was better this year. That's accounting for hitting, fielding and base running. He was a better player. To me, that's the MVP. I understand your argument, if Trout was on the Cubs and was replaced with me, what's it matter? Either way the Cubs suck really bad. But this is no way reflects how good Trout was, even if it were for the Cubs. He was individually great and this is an individual award.

I can see the different in how much it matters in the grand scheme of things, if Trout were on the Cubs compared to the Tigers. But that gap doesn't exist. The angels were better than the Tigers. So I feel like that entire argument is off the table.

To me, this is not a team award, it's an individual one. Mike Trout had a better individual year.


Yeah, like I said, I don't think the results of their teams is relevant in this case. I would suggest that the respective teams were fairly equivalent. A strong case can certainly be made that the Angels were better.

But I'm not convinced that Trout had the better year either. I understand that determining value is what statistics like WAR or win shares are driving at. And they do a decent job. But I don't really think there is a consensus on the weights of each component as illustrated by the fact that the formula are being changed all the time.

And then we get in to subjective opinion which isn't invalid, though some people approach it as if it were. Statisticians ignore things that cannot be measured. That's their job. There are no such constrictions upon you or me or danny bernstein. For example, Nick Swisher is a valuable player. His worst season came with the White Sox when they attempted to bat him leadoff for a good part of the season. Is there a correlation between his order position and his performance? Maybe, maybe not. But there certainly could be.

I tend to give more weight to a strong leadoff man, simply because they are so rare in the game today. ( I just realized as I type this that you may have forced me to talk myself into the superiority of Trout. :lol: ) But Miguel Cabrera is the best middle of the order run producer in the game today. If I had to have a player get a hit to save my life, I'm taking him.

And this is a little off-topic but it relates in a way, but it gets me thinking about the way the game is viewed today and the way the walk is valued. If there were a hypothetical player with a .000 BA who simply walked every time, would he be the greatest player ever?


I would just argue that no matter how you slice up the stats, weight them etc, when considering hitting, defense and base running, Trout was better.

I won't argue that Cabrera isn't the best middle of the Ryder hitter. But that's not what the are is for.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 1:49 pm 
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I don't think he was the MVP, but he should have gotten a gold glove.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:49 am 
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From BP per @JPosnanski, Cabrera created exactly 1 more run than Trout, but made 56 more outs in the process. That's before D & baserunning.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:51 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
From BP per @JPosnanski, Cabrera created exactly 1 more run than Trout, but made 56 more outs in the process. That's before D & baserunning.


It's pretty much a I care about baserunning and defense or I don't argument and I think the don'ts have it

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:53 am 
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Northside_Dan wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
From BP per @JPosnanski, Cabrera created exactly 1 more run than Trout, but made 56 more outs in the process. That's before D & baserunning.


It's pretty much a I care about baserunning and defense or I don't argument and I think the don'ts have it


It's almost certain Cabrera will win, so you're probably right. But that doesn't mean they aren't looking at it incorrectly.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:53 am 
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Go "math"! Wooooooooooo!

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:54 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
From BP per @JPosnanski, Cabrera created exactly 1 more run than Trout, but made 56 more outs in the process. That's before D & baserunning.


How many runs did Trout create in the postseason?


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:55 am 
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Big Chicagoan wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
From BP per @JPosnanski, Cabrera created exactly 1 more run than Trout, but made 56 more outs in the process. That's before D & baserunning.


How many runs did Trout create in the postseason?


It's a regular season award


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:56 am 
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Northside_Dan wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
From BP per @JPosnanski, Cabrera created exactly 1 more run than Trout, but made 56 more outs in the process. That's before D & baserunning.


It's pretty much a I care about baserunning and defense or I don't argument and I think the don'ts have it

I'm not sure it's quite that simple. I think it's more of a slow evolution from the old school guys til the new school guys. 20 years from now the triple crown probably wont have the same significance, but it still does right now. It got brought up on Mike and Mike. Greenberg said "Cabrera won the triple crown and his team made the playoffs. That's it, he's the MVP, anything else is just arguing to argue." Any sabr guys who heard that probably had to keep their head from exploding. I get the feeling a lot of sabr guys think that sabr is mainstream now. It's not. The traditional media is still mostly old school.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:57 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
Big Chicagoan wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
From BP per @JPosnanski, Cabrera created exactly 1 more run than Trout, but made 56 more outs in the process. That's before D & baserunning.


How many runs did Trout create in the postseason?


It's a regular season award


The point is, whatever he did, he didn't help his team win enough to get to the postseason. So who gives a shit. He didn't put up good enough numbers to overcome his team not winning its division or the wild card.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:58 am 
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FavreFan wrote:
Northside_Dan wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
From BP per @JPosnanski, Cabrera created exactly 1 more run than Trout, but made 56 more outs in the process. That's before D & baserunning.


It's pretty much a I care about baserunning and defense or I don't argument and I think the don'ts have it

I'm not sure it's quite that simple. I think it's more of a slow evolution from the old school guys til the new school guys. 20 years from now the triple crown probably wont have the same significance, but it still does right now. It got brought up on Mike and Mike. Greenberg said "Cabrera won the triple crown and his team made the playoffs. That's it, he's the MVP, anything else is just arguing to argue." Any sabr guys who heard that probably had to keep their head from exploding. I get the feeling a lot of sabr guys think that sabr is mainstream now. It's not. The traditional media is still mostly old school.


Totally agree. The problem with this, is that people like Greenberg refuse to even listen to the argument. If you can't reason with them, it's a waste of time... which is frustrating.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:59 am 
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I agree FF.

The playoffs argument really holds no merit in this discussion. Baseball is the ultimate individual sport. You have to evaluate players with that in mind. Cabrera had a better hitting year than Trout but not by so much to make up for how significantly better Trout was on the field and bases.

Besides, Angels had a better record in a tougher division as well if you still want to hang to the team should influence this award.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:01 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Northside_Dan wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
From BP per @JPosnanski, Cabrera created exactly 1 more run than Trout, but made 56 more outs in the process. That's before D & baserunning.


It's pretty much a I care about baserunning and defense or I don't argument and I think the don'ts have it

I'm not sure it's quite that simple. I think it's more of a slow evolution from the old school guys til the new school guys. 20 years from now the triple crown probably wont have the same significance, but it still does right now. It got brought up on Mike and Mike. Greenberg said "Cabrera won the triple crown and his team made the playoffs. That's it, he's the MVP, anything else is just arguing to argue." Any sabr guys who heard that probably had to keep their head from exploding. I get the feeling a lot of sabr guys think that sabr is mainstream now. It's not. The traditional media is still mostly old school.


Totally agree. The problem with this, is that people like Greenberg refuse to even listen to the argument. If you can't reason with them, it's a waste of time... which is frustrating.

I think he'll listen, I just think it's tough to sway someone's mind when they have heard something for 40 years. For Greenie's whole life he has heard how mythical the triple crown is. Just five years ago he probably didn't know what WAR was. It'll take time to get through to the collective majority.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:01 am 
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Big Chicagoan wrote:
The point is, whatever he did, he didn't help his team win enough to get to the postseason. So who gives a shit. He didn't put up good enough numbers to overcome his team not winning its division or the wild card.


Angels had a better record playing in a tougher division. So what else you got?

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:03 am 
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Northside_Dan wrote:
Big Chicagoan wrote:
The point is, whatever he did, he didn't help his team win enough to get to the postseason. So who gives a shit. He didn't put up good enough numbers to overcome his team not winning its division or the wild card.


Angels had a better record playing in a tougher division. So what else you got?


"Whatever he did" is actually MORE than what Cabrera did. That's the point. And A-Rod won in '03, so the precedent of a non-playoff MVP is set.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:04 am 
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Northside_Dan wrote:
Big Chicagoan wrote:
The point is, whatever he did, he didn't help his team win enough to get to the postseason. So who gives a shit. He didn't put up good enough numbers to overcome his team not winning its division or the wild card.


Angels had a better record playing in a tougher division. So what else you got?


They didn't even get one of the two wild cards. Plus, when they needed to win in September, Trout sucked.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:05 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
Northside_Dan wrote:
Big Chicagoan wrote:
The point is, whatever he did, he didn't help his team win enough to get to the postseason. So who gives a shit. He didn't put up good enough numbers to overcome his team not winning its division or the wild card.


Angels had a better record playing in a tougher division. So what else you got?


"Whatever he did" is actually MORE than what Cabrera did. That's the point. And A-Rod won in '03, so the precedent of a non-playoff MVP is set.


ARod won because his numbers were so incredibly better than anyone else in the league. Trout's are not incredibly better.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:08 am 
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Big Chicagoan wrote:
Northside_Dan wrote:
Big Chicagoan wrote:
The point is, whatever he did, he didn't help his team win enough to get to the postseason. So who gives a shit. He didn't put up good enough numbers to overcome his team not winning its division or the wild card.


Angels had a better record playing in a tougher division. So what else you got?


They didn't even get one of the two wild cards. Plus, when they needed to win in September, Trout sucked.



:lol: :lol:

There's no debate with that. The Angels were a better team this regular season and won more games playing a MUCH tougher division. Angels in the AL central win 95 games at least.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:08 am 
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Big Chicagoan wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
Northside_Dan wrote:
Big Chicagoan wrote:
The point is, whatever he did, he didn't help his team win enough to get to the postseason. So who gives a shit. He didn't put up good enough numbers to overcome his team not winning its division or the wild card.


Angels had a better record playing in a tougher division. So what else you got?


"Whatever he did" is actually MORE than what Cabrera did. That's the point. And A-Rod won in '03, so the precedent of a non-playoff MVP is set.


ARod won because his numbers were so incredibly better than anyone else in the league. Trout's are not incredibly better.


Well, Trout's WAR this year is higher than A-Rod's in 03.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:10 am 
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I don't disagree with you guys that Trout deserves it, but aren't you basically making a case that all of these awards should simply go to whoever has the highest score on the advanced metrics that have been created?

Why not just cancel all voting on all awards?

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:11 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
[
Well, Trout's WAR this year is higher than A-Rod's in 03.


And IIRC (can't figure out how to look it up at the moment), Pujols and Bonds had equal or higher WARs, and just as impressive seasons.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:11 am 
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Northside_Dan wrote:
Big Chicagoan wrote:
Northside_Dan wrote:
Big Chicagoan wrote:
The point is, whatever he did, he didn't help his team win enough to get to the postseason. So who gives a shit. He didn't put up good enough numbers to overcome his team not winning its division or the wild card.


Angels had a better record playing in a tougher division. So what else you got?


They didn't even get one of the two wild cards. Plus, when they needed to win in September, Trout sucked.



:lol: :lol:

There's no debate with that. The Angels were a better team this regular season and won more games playing a MUCH tougher division. Angels in the AL central win 95 games at least.



They won one more game. And came in 3rd in their division.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:12 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
I don't disagree with you guys that Trout deserves it, but aren't you basically making a case that all of these awards should simply go to whoever has the highest score on the advanced metrics that have been created?

Why not just cancel all voting on all awards?


One could make a case for that.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:13 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
I don't disagree with you guys that Trout deserves it, but aren't you basically making a case that all of these awards should simply go to whoever has the highest score on the advanced metrics that have been created?

Why not just cancel all voting on all awards?


I'd make the argument taking any 'advanced' stats out of it. Show me basic stats and eye test and I'd vote for Trout. Gold Glove caliber defense, amazing baserunner and slightly less accomplished hitting season Cabrera.

If Hamilton had 2 more homeruns we wouldn't be having this discussion

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:14 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
I don't disagree with you guys that Trout deserves it, but aren't you basically making a case that all of these awards should simply go to whoever has the highest score on the advanced metrics that have been created?

Why not just cancel all voting on all awards?


One could make a case for that.
Why though? Are you saying that they are definitely right?

Just remember, that the defenders of all these advanced statistics always fall back to "It's just one tool to use" and "no one thinks they are all that matter".

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:15 am 
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Northside_Dan wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
I don't disagree with you guys that Trout deserves it, but aren't you basically making a case that all of these awards should simply go to whoever has the highest score on the advanced metrics that have been created?

Why not just cancel all voting on all awards?


I'd make the argument taking any 'advanced' stats out of it. Show me basic stats and eye test and I'd vote for Trout. Gold Glove caliber defense, amazing baserunner and slightly less accomplished hitting season Cabrera.

If Hamilton had 2 more homeruns we wouldn't be having this discussion


Great point.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:17 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
I don't disagree with you guys that Trout deserves it, but aren't you basically making a case that all of these awards should simply go to whoever has the highest score on the advanced metrics that have been created?

Why not just cancel all voting on all awards?


One could make a case for that.
Why though? Are you saying that they are definitely right?

Just remember, that the defenders of all these advanced statistics always fall back to "It's just one tool to use" and "no one thinks they are all that matter".


No, there is no "right." But what's the alternative?


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:19 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
No, there is no "right." But what's the alternative?
You let people vote and don't question them for being wrong because they don't put as much weight into whatever you consider to be the best evidence.

If Trout doesn't win, there is going to be a lot of lamenting about how it was wrong because of WAR, and advanced fielding, and other things.

What if a guy weighs winning the triple crown more than a higher WAR? Is he wrong?

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