RFDC wrote:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/scott-feldman-the-poor-mans-brandon-mccarthy/
Since the start of the 2011 season, Feldman has made 23 starts. In those 23 starts, he’s posted a LOB% of just 59.8%. Of the 190 starters who have thrown 100 or more innings over the last two years, that LOB% ranks 189th – only Tim Wakefield has been worse at allowing runners on base to come home. As you’re probably aware, LOB% isn’t very predictive from one year to the next, with just a .18 year-to-year correlation over the last decade. LOB% is determined in part by how good a pitcher is — a bad pitcher will allow more hits with men on base than a good pitcher, because he’s more likely to allow hits in general — but Feldman is a clear outlier in terms of his context-neutral performance and his strand rate.
Feldman’s never stranded a ton of runners — his career LOB% was 68.1% through 2010 — but part of his early career struggles were related to the fact that he wasn’t a very good pitcher. His 4.73 ERA/4.70 FIP/4.71 xFIP over his first 78 starts show that his results were more bad pitching than bad luck. Over the last couple of years, however, Feldman’s peripherals have gotten a lot better while his strand rate has gotten a lot worse. If you’re betting on one of those two to continue in the future, you’re better off betting on his improvements in BB/K than his decline in LOB%.
In a vacuum, you’d definitely prefer McCarthy to Feldman. His track record of success is longer, he’s shown better command, and his improvements after overhauling his repertoire led to solid results in terms of run prevention. With Feldman, you’re betting on regression to the mean and hoping that he’s able to carry a starter’s workload without wearing down.
However, Feldman’s going to come at a much lower price than McCarthy, and most of the markers that project future performance suggest that Feldman’s not that far off from McCarthy in terms of talent. He’s the kind of pitcher you can almost certainly land on a one year deal, and in a better environment for a pitcher, Feldman may very well thrive.
He’s not likely to develop into an ace, but for a team looking for value at the back end of their rotation, Feldman might be one of the best buys on the market.
From Fangraphs: This is not a positive obviously. I hope he is not Chris Volstad II. Worth the risk though, given where they are at. Another guy they can flip if he starts off well.
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