Why are you sure he will do that? He has done it one season. The rest he is a .500 pitcher with a 4+ ERA.

Why is it with Danks that he is what his record is and no more. But with Floyd you seem to be basing this off of some potential that you see?

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

Below .500

"Losing pitcher" Gavin Floyd. RFDC is correct, Orr. If you are going to say that about Danks, have to say it about Floyd too.

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Danks makes $15 million a season that could have gone to Buerhle.

Floyd can be a dominating guy. He isn't a soft-tossing lefty. He's the kind of a pitcher that can get in a groove and strike out 9 batters a game over long stretches of season. A guy like that has value. I would compare him to guys like Scherzer and Shields. They've put together better seasons so far but I'm not going to be surprised when Floyd does it. More likely I'll be pissed off that he did it for someone else.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I'll bet you right now that Floyd, regardless of what team he pitches for this season, is over .500. It's not as simple as the numbers you keep stating. Don't you remember in the Jerry Manuel era when they were always short a starter? Do you really want to go back to that?

I certainly don't think the Sox have anything in the minors leagues right now who can do close to what Floyd will if you're trying to win this season. As far as guys who are similar, yeah, there are a few out there. I already cited McCarthy and Marcum. But why pay them probably more than Floyd for what's likely to be similar production? The guy you don't have isn't always better than the guy you do. And, most of all, I don't think the Sox would try to sign a guy like that. They'd probably try to do exactly what you suggest and HOPE they can come up with a guy who can have a decent season. Maybe Humber will be better or Quintana can keep locating junk or Santiago rediscovers the screwball. You might get lucky with one of those guys. I doubt you'll get lucky with two.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

losing pitcher Gavin Floyd is nowhere near as good as James Shields.

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When their careers are over and in the books, I expect them to be remarkably similar.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Then not only are you expecting "losing pitcher" Gavin Floyd to pitch way above and beyond his career numbers so far, you are expecting Shields to pretty much fall apart and pitch horribly for the next 3 or 4 years.

From '09 thru '12 Floyd is 45-48 with a 4.20 ERA, avg 185.1 IP per year
Same time frame, Shields is 55-49 with a 3.91 ERA, avg 224.2 IP per year

I'll take Shields over Floyd 100% of the time. And keep in mind Shields has done this pitching in a much much tougher division than "losing pitcher" Gavin Floyd has.

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Why are you arbitrarily leaving out Floyd's best season? Don't you think that shows your obvious bias? Keep in mind Floyd's ERA is likely to be higher based on where each guy pitches half his games. I said that Shields had been marginally better so far. My belief is that Floyd's best season(s) are in front of him and Shields' are behind him. We'll see.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Why do you say 'losing pitcher' John Danks when in reality the exact same thing can be said of Gavin Floyd recently?

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Because they're not the same. Danks manages to lose games 2-1 or 8-6. He gives the illusion of being better than Floyd when he really isn't. Floyd will lose his release point or be unable to locate his curve and have bad innings at times. That's his issue. Danks' issue is that he gets outpitched by guys he is supposed to be better than quite often.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Quintana is done. He will not be a viable starting pitcher.

Floyd's WAR since joining the White Sox.
0.0
1.5
2.3
1.5
0.9
0.9

Above Average Starter it would seem

I don't think so either. Maybe we'll both be wrong, but it isn't a good idea to count on guys like that. You got what you got from him. I wouldn't push it.

It's funny how the Sox fan can identify that LaHair is a turd even when he's slugging 1.100 but he has trouble identifying the turds on his own team.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

True

Quintana got by on pinpoint control. That's not usually something a pitcher can keep up. Occassionally there's a Buehrle but its a tough way to make a living as a starter.

Plus the trend shows....

1.76
2.38
3.67
4.20
6.75


Although his K rate went up at the end. Probably the bullpen work.

That's exactly it. There isn't much margin for error with guys like Quintana. They absolutely can't walk anyone. When they do, they're going to have trouble. A guy like Floyd with real stuff can pitch over a walk even when he's struggling. All he has to do is locate that nasty curve once in an at-bat and now the batter is in trouble.

I get the feeling Frank is arguing with me as if I'm saying Floyd has been great and I'm not. His numbers are what they are. He's been a decent big league starter. But there have been many pitchers that showed big stuff and struggled into their early 30s when they suddenly became dominant. Guys like Al Leiter and Dave Stewart, etc.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

But you are saying, or at least inferring that he is great. Don't call him a "front line" starter, and don't compare him to James Shields, who has been one of the top pitchers in the AL (while pitching in the AL East) for the past 2 seasons, then come back and say "I'm not saying Floyd is great."

I never said anything otherwise. He's decent. He's a guy. He's a guy that you move 100% of the time when the right deal comes along. That is been my whole point all along.

So Orr, what is Gavin Floyd? A top of the rotation starter, or just a decent big league starter. His numbers would seems to suggest the latter.

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Shields is probably marginally better than Floyd. But they're really similar guys. Shields' 2011 is like Floyd's 2008. If you want me to grant you that Shields has been better thus far, okay. But both of them are good big league starters. I'm sure there are Rays fans who are frustrated with Shields at times.

I just think you're viewing Floyd less than objectively because as a Sox fan his failures stand out to you. We all do that. When the guy called B&b and suggested someone should assassinate Thornton, for a minute I thought it was a good idea. But when I take a deep breath I realize Thornton is a pretty good left-handed reliever.

Probably a better comparison for Floyd is A.J. Burnett. He's definitely a frontline starter. But he's had bad seasons and good seasons. I know stoneroses is intelligent enough to know that Burnett is a pretty good pitcher, but he's clouded by his emotions. I think you are to Floyd as stoneroses is to Burnett.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

according to baseball reference, since the start of the 2007 season, their respective WAR:

Shields - 15.5
Floyd - 15.5

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

this discussion is getting interesting

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

According to fangrahs:

Shields- 23.5

Floyd- 17.2

A win a year sounds about right.

I've posted my numbers long before Chus entered this thread. Floyd had a damn good year in '08, hasn't had anything close to that good since.

Shields has his worst year in 2010 and is still better than Floyd over the last 3 or 4 years. Orr has been overrating him for a long time, at least he's consistent.

_________________

Guthrie signed for 3 years and an average of $8.3 per.

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

MATH!

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Well, Shields was just traded for a couple top prospects and a couple mid level ones. I can only hope the same thing happens to Floyd.

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You better also hope that one of the guys coming back can give you 190 innings and a .500 record if you plan on contending in the division this season. Because Jose Quintana and Hector Santiago probably aren't going to do that.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

"Losing pitcher" Gavin Floyd is under .500 more often than not.

_________________

He's .515 for his career in almost 200 starts. I'm sure that a "replacement player" is equal to that. Good luck finding him though.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Gavin Floyd finished under .500 in 2007, 2010, and 2011. He has had one good season, and several "replacement player" type seasons. You don't need luck to replace that. Do you think you need luck to replace Mark Clark, Kris Benson, or Ricky Nolasco?

_________________

How about we revisit this conversation after Floyd is gone and we can actually look at what took his spot in the rotation and how it worked out?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

If Gavin is traded, with the additions to the Royals pitching staff and the fact that the Sox cannot seem to beat the Royals, the Sox very well maybe the 3rd place team in the division this year.

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."