This is what it opened at. Shocked me. Thought it would be 5 or 6.

Vegas is begging the public to take the Packers. Vegas knows what they are doing. The public will hit the Packers hard. It's at 3 right now. Wouldn't be shocked if it hit 4 by kickoff.

What I'm saying is Vegas knows shit. Everybody thinks the Packers is easy money. Classic sucker bet. Makes me think the Bears are gonna win. Wait to take it if you want to play the Bears. Cuz it will only go up.

How's that for logic?

Lines are moved cuz of the public action if there are no late injuries. My old man taught me a valuable lesson when I was 10 years old. Any time a line moves like that bet against the public and with the book. Book is always smarter than the public. Of course it doesn't always work out. But that's the rule of thumb. And I'll bet it's at least 60% winners betting this way.

Week 2 at Lambeau was Pack -6.5. Opening at -6 would've been insane and pounded down quickly.

Let me clarify. Line has to move at least 2 points cuz of public action for the rule to apply. Half point change means shit. Bet higher if the line moves 3 points. Even higher if it's 4. Lines rarely move 4 points cuz of public action. it's usually no more than 2.5 from opening line until kickoff. Cuz Vegas hates moving them that much. Sets up middles for big time gamblers that bet early.

make sure to include the line moving past both 3 and 4 in your analysis Beardown

That does seem like a sucker bet line to me as well. I would think they could put the Packers at -8 and still get healthy action on them

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

No reason to over think here. Lay the 3.

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Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Agreed

Yep, no reason. To overthink...Vegas. gets. It wrong. Multiple. Times. Weekly ....cutler n forte always wet the bed against the pack...gb 27. Chi 17

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How many period buttons are on your keyboard? It's like you're typing in Bernstinese.

I have to agree. Packers have been winning and covering against the Bear both on the road and at home for several years. My money cannot be on the Bears here, but it won't be on the Packers either.

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

This is always a useful tool for me. NFPOST.com has a sports book spy telling you what the public is betting in Vegas. How they are able to get this info is beyond me. I don't know why the books would reveal it. Anyway, 89% of the public is betting the Packers ATS. 90% of this game's money line action is on the Packers. Game was taken off the board at -3 at the books that this site tracks. Too much one sided action. I'm sure they'll put it back up at 4 or 4.5 later tonight.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/odds_spy.html

Getting it at 4.5 is what I want. I'll play the Bears at that point. Not big. The only reason for that is the Bears field goal kicker. He's shit from beyond 40. That's why he wasn't in the NFL. That's obviously a big factor. Not to mention it might be raining and windy at Soldier Field and Mare isn't used to it. Especially since he hasn't kicked all year.

Square plays win, too.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Of course they do, obviously. I don't always go against the big public plays. Something about this game tells me the Packers are the sucker bet. Not to mention it's a home dog. That tilts me more towords the Bears as well. I like the Browns as home dogs this week as well.

Packers are down Woodson and Nelson. Jennings isn't the same after coming back. Clay Mathews might not play. If he does, he's not 100%.

sportsinsights.com

pregame.com

Beyondthebets.com summarizes the public's top 3 plays every Sunday morning. The public is 22-19-1. Public so far is profitable.

The Bears are injured as well.

Interesting. Wouldn't have thought it had been that good. Still, when you think about it. Top 3 plays and only 3 over .500? That ain't good for best bets. Don't forget the 10% juice. It's not that much of a profit. I'll bet those 19 losses were most of the bigger money plays compared to the wins. Just a guess. And the Packers are gonna be the biggest money riding in Vegas this weekend. No doubt in my mind.

Public started pretty hot but I think the past three weeks they've been 2-7. Regression to the mean is understandable after being so hot playing obvious favorites.

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but a profitable way to bet the NFL after week 9, is to play any team under .500 against a team that is over .500. Make it a larger play if the under .500 team is favored. Point spread bets, not money line, although that might work out, too.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Matthews will play and he will be 100%, otherwise he would not be on the field. Really don't know what you are talking about here, again.

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2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

Just a hunch on a play that the vast majority of the public is going against.

I'm not the only one. 4 reputable handicapping newsletters have the Bears winning outright.

Pointwise: Bears 22 - Packers 19
Sports Reporter: Bears 20 - Packers 19
Stat Fox: Bears 22 - Packers 19
Playbook: Bears by 3

Everybody you hear pretty much thinks the Packers are gonna blow them out. Don't get me wrong, conversation about the game has nothing to do with the outcome. I know.

But if the Bears win, it wouldn't be considered a huge upset. Bears are 3 point dogs. 3 point dogs cover or win a lot in the NFL. Especially 3 point home dogs.

Let's not forget that the Lions were a Staford fumble away from beating the Packers in Green Bay. Maybe blowing them out if that didn't happen. Packers have flaws and injuries. They aren't a dominate team.

Alright. I was wrong. Felt good about it for the first 25 minutes of the game. I still think if Cutler doesn't throw that pick before the half they win the game. But he did.