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One post per person. Edit that post as the season progresses. I am going to try to have at least one pick for every bowl game but you do what you want. I'll try to give some analysis but that certainly won't happen for every game. Keep a running count of your record at the top of your post. If you are a units guy, feel free to keep those as well. Games start this Saturday. As The Joker say "and here we go":
6-10 -7.6 UNITS
Nevada +9 against Arizona 3 Units (on a 5 scale)
Under 79.5 1 UNIT
This one is going to be a high scoring affair. The over might be attractive but I stayed away from it because we have two of the worst rushing defenses in the country (Nev 109, Az 86) and two of the best rushing offenses in the country (Nev 7, Az 15). I think both teams will start with the run until the other team proves it can stop them, which neither will. The running game will result in a running clock and the game not reaching the outrageous 79.5 O/U. The weather is bad as well and is an early start time for two west coast teams. As far as the side goes, I don't think Arizona will stop Nevada enough to cover 9. This will be no more than a 7 point game and I give Nevada a chance at the upset. One bowl picking philosophy to consider going forward is to look for underdogs in December and favorites in January.
Toledo +3.5 1Q 1 UNIT
Toledo +10.5 against Utah State 1 UNIT
Another philosophy to look for in bowl games is taking double digit dogs. I'm not sure I like this one, as Toledo is a bad defensive team. However, what double digit dog will you immediately like. Still, I'm going to go with the philosophy for a unit to see how it does. I want to further explore the info I detailed in the MAC championship game: Toledo while being a generous defense is an incredibly stingy defense in the 1Q. They pitched 8 shutouts in 12 games and gave up an average of less than 3 ppg in 1Q. On the other hand Utah State, unlike NIU, has been great in 1Q. They were shut out once and held under dd only three times. Chus gave me a +3 1Q line but I am hoping to get a .5 better from my guy or I will buy it. Toledo has a nice offense and when coupled with that !Q defense I fully expect them to be able to stay within a field goal in this 1Q.
San Diego St./BYU UNDER 47 2 UNITS
Sand Diego St. BYU UNDER 23.5 1H 1 UNIT
This is a game where each team s offense plays into its opponents defensive strength. BYU with the number 2 rated rushing D in the country should be able to shut down SDST rushing heavy offense as they have several good rushing offenses this year. Meanwhile BYU will be trying to spread the field wide with a new QBbut SDST has been playing excellent passing D for 2+ months.
Ball St/UCF OVER 62 1 UNIT
Ball St. +7.5 1 UNIT
The 7 points seems right on to me with UCF having an offense that is going to put up points on a horrible Ball State defense. UCF on the other hand has a middling defense against a high powered Ball St. O. The key will be whether UCF will be able to stop the run. O'Leary is a good defensive coach but I just don't think they have the talent to stop Ball St. So, both teams are going to be running up and down the field tonight. UCF averages over 30 ppg and BSU gives up more than 30 ppg. I think UCF is in the 40s on this one and Ball St. will certainly make it into the 20s with an O that averages over 30ppg, is a very good running team and will be facing a very middle of the road run d. THIS ONE IS NOW DOWN TO 59 SO OBVIOUSLY SOMEONE THINKS I AM VERY WRONG. I'D JUST STAY AWAY FROM THIS ONE. The line moved up over 7 and I think Ball can play with them up to 7.
UL Lafayette/ECU OVER 65 1 UNIT
ULL -5 1UNIT
Good pass offenses (ULL 47th, ECU 35th) going up against horrible pass defenses (ULL 109th, ECU 104th) in a dome should lead to a game with a lot of scores that takes 3.5 hours to complete. I'd really like to take ULL harder as they are playing in front of a home crowd in the dome and I think they will be able o both run and pass while ECU will end up being one dimensional. However, that pass D makes me fear a back door cover. The over is based on these astoundingly bad pass D. The clock won't be rolling and all that throwing should lead to at least one defensive TD and at least one other quick drive TD.
Boise State/Washington UNDER 44.5 1 UNIT
Boise State -3 1H 1UNIT
Boise State suprisingly averaved 30 ppg this year. Every time I saw them, their offense was painfull to watch. However, their defense has been excellent (4th pass, 38th rush). Washington's offense is in the lower third in the country in the defensive deficient Pac 12. I think Boise will be able to shut them down here. The game hinges on what Boise is able to do on offense. UW has a pretty good D (15 pass,64th run) but I think the running D will be where Boise will exploit them. Boise seems to be just a little bit better on both sides of the ball. I don't know if they are 5.5 better so I stayed off the side. I think they are 3 better and so I like the first half play. I just don't think UW is going to be over 14 points on them.
Fresno State -12 against SMU 3 UNITS
UNDER 30.5 1H 1UNIT
A top ranked (12th) passing offense with an experienced QB who will be a pro going up against a horrible (100th) pass defense does not bode well. When SMU falls behind, which they inevitably will, it will be further playing into Fresno State's plan as the (4th) ranked pass D. SMU MUST look to establish the run early and MUST stick with it for a while which is why I played the 1st half under.
Western Kentucky -6.5 3 UNITS
UNDER 28.5 1H 2 Units
Bowling Green +7.5 5 UNITS
Duke-Cincinnatti OVER 60 5 UNITS
UCLA ML -150 3 UNITS
_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.
Last edited by good dolphin on Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:30 pm, edited 16 times in total.
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