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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:01 am 
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And now another episode of Bad Baseball thoughts with JORR!

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:11 am 
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RFDC wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Raines is at 85%

Wilson is at 83%

Henderson is at 81%

Not that much difference. With 1400 SBs and a 81% success rate he is the best.

Besides, if you follow your logic then Carlos Beltran is the best base stealer of all time with 88%


Obviously, Carlos Beltran is a great base stealer. It's hard to argue that 81% is better than 88%, isn't it?


JORR no way in any universe do I believe that you really think Beltran is the best base stealer of all time.


This is when I can't figure out if JORR actually believes what he says, or if he just likes to troll.


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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:13 am 
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RFDC wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Raines is at 85%

Wilson is at 83%

Henderson is at 81%

Not that much difference. With 1400 SBs and a 81% success rate he is the best.

Besides, if you follow your logic then Carlos Beltran is the best base stealer of all time with 88%


Obviously, Carlos Beltran is a great base stealer. It's hard to argue that 81% is better than 88%, isn't it?


JORR no way in any universe do I believe that you really think Beltran is the best base stealer of all time.


It's difficult to argue that he isn't the most efficient when the numbers say he is.

There are many factors when it comes to base stealing. Henderson happened to play at a time when the running game exploded. He was the most prolific base stealer ever. That much is certain.

I'm sure Nate Silver, or someone like him, can- and probably has- established the value of a stolen base in a given season (based upon runs scored) and weighed against the consequence of being caught. Whatever that number is, Henderson's 81% exceeds that threshold regardless of era or average run environment.

But I'm old school enough to understand that the "when" of things is critical in baseball. I'm sure there were times when Henderson got caught attempting to take third in a one-run game. Did that event cost his team the game? Who knows? Was it ill-advised? Most likely. Baseball is a complicated game of many parts. That's the beauty of it.

I'm also old school enough to recognize that the threat of the steal can be more valuable than the stolen base itself for the consternation it causes the pitcher. That is something that is not so easily measured, and thus, is often dismissed out of hand by SABRmetricians.

In a different time and place could Jackie Robinson or Looie Aparicio have stolen 1500 bases? I think so. It just wasn't done that way when they played. The steal was a strategy not just a wanton act of accumulation. And I'm not knocking Henderson. He was just a product of his time like everyone else. But I would be very careful about authoritatively declaring him the "best base stealer ever".

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:14 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Raines is at 85%

Wilson is at 83%

Henderson is at 81%

Not that much difference. With 1400 SBs and a 81% success rate he is the best.

Besides, if you follow your logic then Carlos Beltran is the best base stealer of all time with 88%


Obviously, Carlos Beltran is a great base stealer. It's hard to argue that 81% is better than 88%, isn't it?


JORR no way in any universe do I believe that you really think Beltran is the best base stealer of all time.


This is when I can't figure out if JORR actually believes what he says, or if he just likes to troll.


How can you make 81% better than 88%? Is that something that happens on an Apple computer?

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:15 am 
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tony campana clearly is the greatest. 91.5% - rewriting the record books


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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:16 am 
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Hatchetman wrote:
And now another episode of Bad Baseball thoughts with JORR!


The problem with statistics is, they don't lie. Stolen bases just aren't as valuable as most people think they are.

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:17 am 
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man of few opinions wrote:
tony campana clearly is the greatest. 91.5% - rewriting the record books


Let me know when he has over 200 in his career. If he can do that at 90%, there's a good argument to be made.

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:19 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
And now another episode of Bad Baseball thoughts with JORR!


The problem with statistics is, they don't lie. Stolen bases just aren't as valuable as most people think they are.


No one is discussing the value of the SB, except you. You're talking to yourself.


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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:20 am 
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Nobody said they were valuable. they said he was the best at stealing bases. He could have easily stolen at 90% if he only tried 50 times/year.

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:24 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
And now another episode of Bad Baseball thoughts with JORR!


The problem with statistics is, they don't lie. Stolen bases just aren't as valuable as most people think they are.


No one is discussing the value of the SB, except you. You're talking to yourself.


How can you judge who was the best at something over various eras without establishing the value of that thing relative to said eras?

If I'm talking to myself it's because I'm the only one who knows what the fuck he's talking about. Stealing at an 88% clip has far more value than stealing at an 80%. That is undeniable. If you don't believe that is a consideration when establishing "the best", that's fine. You can be wrong about that too.

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:24 am 
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Hatchetman wrote:
Nobody said they were valuable. they said he was the best at stealing bases. He could have easily stolen at 90% if he only tried 50 times/year.


What is that based on other than your own whim?

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:26 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
What is that based on other than your own whim?


Common sense. Some bases are easier to steal. Slow pitchers, bad catchers, unlikely situations, second rather than third. Every extra stolen base you try is going to be harder.

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:30 am 
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Hatchetman wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
What is that based on other than your own whim?


Common sense. Some bases are easier to steal. Slow pitchers, bad catchers, unlikely situations, second rather than third. Every extra stolen base you try is going to be harder.


I think Henderson's percentage stealing third was higher than his percentage stealing second. I'm not 100% positive about that.

If you want to examine situations, that's fine. Beltran is playing in an era when very few guys take what we would have called a wind-up in Henderson's time, let alone Jackie Robinson's. Do you think that makes it easier or more difficult to steal?

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:41 am 
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By JORR's logic Jim Thome is a better HR hitter than Hank Aaron.

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:44 am 
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Yeah, it was mandatory back then that catchers could throw well. Now that have to hit well.

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:49 am 
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Avg success rate of base stealers 1973=63% and 2003=70%

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:53 am 
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He scored the most runs in MLB History. Could the stolen bases possibly have had something to do with that?? Its usually easier to score from 2nd or 3rd than 1st.

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:01 am 
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RFDC wrote:
By JORR's logic Jim Thome is a better HR hitter than Hank Aaron.


Do you find that idea to be preposterous? I don't believe it's as crazy as you seem to be suggesting.

Anyway, back to Henderson, I have no problem with those who say that he is the best base stealer of all time. I don't agree, but I can understand the argument. He is far and away the most prolific base stealer ever. Obviously that counts for something. What I take issue with is those who act as if the idea that Willie Wilson and Tim Raines who stole more than their fair share of bases at an extremely high rate of success might have been better at it than Henderson is an absurd concept from out of left field. That isn't that case by a longshot.

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:02 am 
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Hatchetman wrote:
Now they have to hit well.


Are you sure you're a White Sox fan? :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:07 am 
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Raines is vastly underrated and should be a HOFer. Wilson was fun to watch and a great fielder but couldn't draw a walk if given a sharp pencil and a clean pad of paper.

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:09 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
The problem with statistics is, they don't lie. Stolen bases just aren't as valuable as most people think they are.


Exactly, statistics do not lie. 1400 is far and away the best.

The small difference in success rate just does not make up the huge difference in actual number of SBs. If Raines or Wilson were even somewhat close to Henderson in total numbers then I could see your case. But they aren't. Anyone successful in over 80% of steal attempts is pretty successful. The more SB attempts you have the more impressive over 80% success rate is. There is no way of knowing if Raines or Wilson had that many more attempts would they still be at 85 and 83%?

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:17 am 
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Although I was never a fan of Henderson per se I also really appreciated his ability to hi lead off homers.

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:24 am 
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Gloopan Kuratz wrote:
Great story. Too bad all the douchebags ruined your thread.


Quite ironic coming from the guy who retardedly interjected "KILL DEB" over and over and repeatedly expressed a creepy obsession with the spicy senorita in the Dexter thread.

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If I'm talking to myself it's because I'm the only one who knows what the fuck he's talking about.


:lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:25 am 
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Regular Reader wrote:
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66 steals would have led the league or been right near the top in almost every year since then.

You pick and choose stats, physical traits, physical growth and say they don't indicate steroids. Yet, if you apply the same ideas to Sosa and McGwire they indicate steroid use. Could they gain 25-30 lbs of muscle between ages 20 and 34? Sure. Could they still hit 40 HR's but only hit .240? Sure.

In my opinion, looking at Rickey's physical stature only, I do not think a guy in his later years has a body like his. Not even football players that age looked like him. And as far as his late 80's years, I can't help but feel that around the same time his body started resembling a tank was about the same time as his legendary roider teammate McGwire and Canseco.

I think you could say he is like Jeff Bagwell in his physique and career arc as well. And many people believe Bagwell was on the juice.


He played for 8 teams in his last 10 years. He was largely a journeyman OF living off of his reputation and unlike the steroid monsters. There was nothing outstanding, nor particularly implying steroid use. He topped out at 28 HRs and 33 2Bs for any single season output ('90 :salut: ), hardly indicative of steroid use...or really great (steroid induced) power. "Tank" is a bit much. He had large legs, but he had those as a 20 yr. old rookie.

He was/appears to still be cut, but he still wasn't small as a rookie. He was a HS football player who had spent long hours in the weight room & should have been/was cut.

As for Bagwell, I never really had the occasion to follow his career, but I know he had a helluva lot more power and retired under a cloud of allegations, unlike Rickey.


I believe Ricky was a legit football prospect coming out of high school so he had to be pretty powerful even as a yout.

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:26 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
RFDC wrote:
By JORR's logic Jim Thome is a better HR hitter than Hank Aaron.


Do you find that idea to be preposterous? I don't believe it's as crazy as you seem to be suggesting.

Anyway, back to Henderson, I have no problem with those who say that he is the best base stealer of all time. I don't agree, but I can understand the argument. He is far and away the most prolific base stealer ever. Obviously that counts for something. What I take issue with is those who act as if the idea that Willie Wilson and Tim Raines who stole more than their fair share of bases at an extremely high rate of success might have been better at it than Henderson is an absurd concept from out of left field. That isn't that case by a longshot.


willie wilson on average stole 2 more bases per hundred than henderson. raines stole 4 more per hundred. henderson stole 750 more bases than wilson and 600 more than raines over their careers. to say that the slight percentage advantage they have on henderson more than offsets the HUNDREDS and HUNDREDS of additional stolen bases henderson had over his career is preposterous.


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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:46 am 
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RFDC wrote:
Raines was good. Henderson was great.
Correction; Raines was great, Henderson was legendary.

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:50 am 
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Raines was never the same once he stopped using cocaine.

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 3:47 pm 
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As a youth I remember reading an article that said Ryne Sandberg was a better base stealer than Vince Coleman. Largely because of percentage and knowing when to run.


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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 5:25 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
The problem with statistics is, they don't lie. Stolen bases just aren't as valuable as most people think they are.


Exactly, statistics do not lie. 1400 is far and away the best.

The small difference in success rate just does not make up the huge difference in actual number of SBs. If Raines or Wilson were even somewhat close to Henderson in total numbers then I could see your case. But they aren't. Anyone successful in over 80% of steal attempts is pretty successful. The more SB attempts you have the more impressive over 80% success rate is. There is no way of knowing if Raines or Wilson had that many more attempts would they still be at 85 and 83%?


We only know what they did. Not what they might have done. Yeah, Henderson is the most prolific base stealer ever. That's a fact. It is not arguable. Just like 85% is better than 81%. That also is not arguable. But the difference in percentage is more significant than you're suggesting. And it isn't as if Raines and Wilson didn't steal plenty of bases. They stole about 800 and 700 respectively. They were prolific in their own right. A knock on Henderson throughout his career was that he ran on many occasions when it was not appropriate to do so. The ultimate result is incidental. Without running in non-running situations he certainly would not have amassed so many steals.

This feels similar to my argument with Favre Fan when I was attempting to put Dennis Rodman in his proper historic place. I always thought Henderson was a great player. I am not now suggesting he was anything less. But there are guys who were better base stealers.

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 Post subject: Re: Rickey Henderson
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 5:28 pm 
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I agree with you JORR, we only know what they did. Henderson stole almost 2 times as many bases as Wilson and Raines. That is enough for me. We will have to agree to disagree. IMO, Henderson is the best base stealer of all time.

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