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 Post subject: Refs fixing games
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2007 10:34 am 
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I have said for years that there simply are too many strange things that go on in NBA games with referee calls that decide point spreads. It's always nice when the truth begins to come out.

From the NY Post:

THE FBI is investigating an NBA referee who allegedly was betting on basketball games - including ones he was officiating during the past two seasons - as part of an organized-crime probe in the Big Apple, The Post has learned.

The investigation, which began more than a year ago, is zeroing in on blockbuster allegations that the referee was making calls that affected the point spread to guarantee that he - and the hoods who had their hooks in him - cashed in on large bets. Federal agents are set to arrest the referee and a cadre of mobsters and their associates who lined their pockets, sources said. "These are dangerous people [the referee] was involved with," a source said.

One source close to the probe counted the number of games on which the ref and his wiseguy buddies scored windfalls in the "double digits."
NBA Commissioner David Stern is aware of the investigation and has a report about the referee on his desk, another source said. The official, whose name was withheld, allegedly wagered on games during the 2005-06 and 2006-07 NBA seasons.

James Margolin, an FBI spokesman, declined comment on the latest black eye for professional sports. The sources indicated the referee apparently had a gambling problem, slipped into debt and fell prey to mob thugs.

"That's how he got himself into this predicament" by wagering with mob-connected bookies, one source said. Professional basketball has remained largely unscathed by allegations of game-fixing, although college basketball has been rocked by several scandals involving point-shaving by players, but not officials.

One of the most recent was a Boston College point-shaving scam arranged in the 1980s by mobster Henry Hill, who bribed several players. Hill later became a government informant, and his life was depicted in the movie "GoodFellas." Having a referee in their pockets provides a two-fold bonanza to game fixers. Gamblers would be able to directly cash in by betting on games where they knew the point spread was compromised.

But having a ref in their pocket could prove even more lucrative to crooks in a bookmaking syndicate. Bookmakers hope to encourage an equal amount of betting on each team and make their money on the "vigorish," which is typically 10 percent of a losing bet.

But armed with the inside information, the bookmaking syndicate could set an artificial point spread that would encourage large "layoff" bets from other bookies carrying too much action on one team, that were likely now to lose.

An FBI organized-crime squad in the bureau's flagship New York office is handling the case, but the referee traveled the country officiating various games on which he allegedly bet. It was not determined which games were allegedly affected by the referee's actions, or how much money may have been won by him and his cohorts. The FBI got wind of the scheme while conducting a separate mob investigation.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2007 10:37 am 
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I think is a lesson to all amateur gamblers. The odds are stacked heavily against you because the professionals always have more information than you, sometimes illegally.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2007 11:34 am 
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Who is the one ref who everyone hates and was suspended last year? Joey Crawford? (I don't really follow basketball, so forgive the ignorance.) Could it be him?

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2007 11:48 am 
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Anything is possible at this point. As for Crawford, specifically, indications were that he was suspended for abuse of authority. The Duncan incident apparently was not an isolated one, but merely the straw that broke the camel’s back.

I’m not ruling him out, but not jumping to conclusions either. As I mentioned in the NBA thread, my biggest concern here is that this was driven by bookmakers as opposed to bettors, meaning the amount of cash involved here is probably going to be startling if and when dollar amounts are published.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2007 1:46 pm 
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Las Vegas, Nevada (July 20,2007) – The sports world is abuzz with talk of NBA referee Tim Donaghy, who is accused of betting on NBA games, and making calls to manipulate the final score of at least 10 games.

Sports Gambling expert RJ Bell, President of Pregame.com has uncovered these remarkable facts:

Over the last two seasons (reportedly the focus of the FBI’s investigation into this matter), the games refereed by Tim Donaghy scored more points than Las Vegas expected over 57 percent of the time (79 of 138 games). The odds of that happening randomly are 19 to 1.

Premise #1: The more fouls a referee calls, the more he affects the game.

Premise #2: There is an absolute correlation between the number of fouls a referee calls in an NBA game and the number of points scored by the teams. (The logic being that fouls result in free throws, which stop the clock and add points).

Conclusion: An NBA ref who intended to illicitly influence a game would do so by calling more fouls, and thus his games would be higher scoring than average.

Not only have Tim Donaghy’s games the last two seasons been higher scoring than average, they have been so to a degree that would happen naturally only quite rarely. Which means it can be stated fairly that Tim Donaghy’s on-court behavior the last two seasons has an over 95% probability of being abnormal!

Maybe Tim Donaghy has always called lots of fouls, some may suggest. In the two years prior to the two years the FBI is investigating, Tim Donaghy’s games scored more points than Las Vegas expected only 44% of the time!


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2007 1:52 pm 
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This does nothing to detour gamblers. Beleive me. Even if they think it's fixed it's still picking one team or the other. Who knows? You might be on the side of the fix by luck.

I've always knew this takes place. It probably happens alot more in college basketball with refs and players.

They caught one. That's all. No other ref is any more suspicious in my mind becasue this happened.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2007 2:12 pm 
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It may not deter amateurs, but many pro gamblers have stayed away from the NBA for years. I am not a pro by any means, but I have not bet NBA games (except very occasionally or playoff games) for more than ten years. Too many strange things gave me the belief that it was not a sport I should bet.

There may be college refs doing it, but I am more suspicious about college players than I am college refs. Some players and teams in the MAC (along with MAC refs) have been suspicious in recent years. The arrests at Toledo for point shaving (football) were no surprise to many. And it won't be a surprise if and when some Mac football refs are relieved of their duties or arrested. Big Ten football was very suspicious too about 5-8 years ago, but it's been much better the last few years after Joe Paterno raised holy hell. That finally forced a hard look at the refs, made Delaney realize they needed to clean house, fire those refs that had been involved in several questionable games, and install instant replay.

Pac Ten football and WAC football and basketball refs are also very suspicious. They may not be gambling though, just favoring their home teams (remember the blatant mistakes made in Oregon vs. Oklahoma football last year, Nevada vs. Kansas hoops a few years ago, and any number of Hawaii football and hoops games that have blatantly decided outcomes and point spreads).


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2007 2:20 pm 
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You're right.

Plus, while I don't think that pro players fix or tank games with gambling, I do think that they bet on their teams.

They can never get caught. Just have a buddy in Vegas put the money down for you. Most are smart enough not to do it through illegal outlets.

Pro players don't fix games. They make enough where it's not advantageous when you consider the penalty.

I've said before it's at least 10% of all pro players gambling on their own teams.

Some gamble more games then others. Some higher bets then others but there is no doubt in my mind it happens.

It's a vice. Players are highly competitve and have money. Of course some of them bet.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2007 2:27 pm 
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Jordan and Barkley have been known to place a few wagers.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2007 2:36 pm 
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I have no doubt that MJ bet a few shekels on himself, on many occasions over the years.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2007 2:37 pm 
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Barkley admits betting on sports now that he's retired. He'd never admit to betting on his teams while he played. I'm sure he did however.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2007 2:38 pm 
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Quote:
any number of Hawaii football and hoops games that have blatantly decided outcomes and point spreads


Hawaii is the most dangerous of them all. For as much hell as people raise about sporting events taking place in Las Vegas, Hawaii home games are always the last event on the day's ticket and draw a ton of uninfomed action.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2007 2:41 pm 
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You're right about that. One time, when I was in Vegas, Hawaii was my catch up game. I was boozed up and looking to get even. Luckily it worked that night.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 8:36 am 
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The only reason I dont think Jordan bet on his own games is that he would need to wager so much for his interest to be peaked that it would be a VERY Noticeable thing. yes even if he had some lacky or bimbo do it.

I have seen MJ at the tables in vegas bettng $10,000 a hand, I have heard 1st hand stories from some people very close to him, but I really dont think he ever did.

he might have told others to bet on some games, as I think he was very close with some refs! to the point where he hooked some of them up with certain things and certain ....uhhmmm females. (Alleged)

Please dont take this to mean Jordan wouldn't bet on a game of Rock Papers Scissors, but the guy did one thing as focused as well as anyone ever and that was play hoop and I honestly dont think he cared to bet on those games he played in., but as I said the guy would bet on how quickly the pizza gets to his house.

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 Post subject: Hawaii
PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 11:02 am 
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Well we have heard Mac and Harry talk about the Hawaii game is usually called the chaser, for people that are down, to try and catch up that game, so I would say that's why there is a lot of money put on that game, like one poster said, that he caught up with the Hawaii game, now I haven't watched enough Hawaii football, if there is intresting calls to change games or not.

I will say Hawaii is supposed to have a good year, so they will be the favorite in most games.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 11:58 am 
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There are many MANY coaches who have complained and there have been many columns and articles questioning the officiating in papers of the teams that lost at Hawaii. As I suggested, it may not have as much to do with gambling as it does WAC refs favoring the home team. The WAC has always insisted on having their refs do their own games. Until other conferences refuse to play there under those conditions, this kind of lousy officiating will likely continue. I have watched many Hawaii games and it seems like the same officiating crew does their games quite often. But many coaches see the trip to Hawaii as something special for their team so they are willing to pay the price. Until they lose a game they shouldn't. A few come to mind: The Cincinnati game in 02 and the Mich. State game in 04. Purdue last year was pretty bad. In the Cincinnati game in 02, the Hawaii players started a brawl and the Cincy guys got penalized big time. In both the Cincy and Michigan State games, both teams recieved absurd penalties at key moments and each team had a few TDs called back for phantom calls. Then, who can forget the Michigan State basketball game a few years ago in which 4 MSU players mysteriously got food poisoning at their hotel the night before the game. The officiating was so bad that Tom Izzo nearly went after the refs and then had to be restrained. Didn't Joe Tiller say after last year's game at Hawaii "never again?" It has now become so bad that many teams have now recognized that playing Hawaii at Hawaii is not a fair contest and refuse to go to Hawaii to play. Hawaii has a weak schedule this year and June Jones thinks it's because teams are afraid of them. Riiiiiiiiiight....

Michigan State was scheduled to play Hawaii this year as part of a multi-year agreement, but after those debacles with the refs, MSU decided a year ago to get out of that contract. When they couldn't find another team to take their place, they agreed to pay Hawaii $250,000 not to play the game. Until the officiating rules are changed as to who can officiate Wac and Hawaii games, any coach who takes his team to Hawaii needs his head examined. Washington is this year's dumbass, playing Hawaii there on Dec. 1.

The lesson for gamblers is simple: Bet on Hawaii at home or don't bet the game.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 12:12 pm 
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Purdue will never play at Hawaii again. They didn't get screwed as bad as MSU or Northwestern did but no good comes from playing at Hawaii. I believe they actually used different refs for the Hawaii/Purdue game(possibly Pac-10). They also are the dirtiest program in the country. Purdue had two offensive lineman get knocked out of the game.

Purdue got it easy after hearing the stories of what MSU and Northwestern went through, but if any Big Ten team schedules them again, they will regret it.

Hawaii had 4 open dates on their schedule and couldn't find any takers. They are trying to say it is because they are too good and that people are afraid to lose to them but the reputation of official blunders, cheap shots, injuries, and bad fan experiences(Hawaii fans are very in your face) and no one wants to go.

My advice for betting on/against Hawaii is to avoid it all costs.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 4:41 pm 
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from eog.com

Tim Donaghy: OVER-whelming Evidence That The Fix Was In
August 1, 2007

How could an NBA referee this get away with allegedly betting on basketball games for two years? Well, one thing’s for certain. Basketball is probably the easiest major sport in which a fix can be made. You have a lot less players on the court (only 10) than in football or baseball. And one player in basketball has a lot more influence on the outcome than one player in the other two major sports. Just ask Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Lebron James, or Dwayne Wade. They can literally lift an entire team on their shoulders. It’s also a sport that is so dependent on the referee’s whistle.

Now, would it be easiest for a referee to control which team covers the spread (side) or the number of points scored in the game (total)? That depends on who you ask, but as an O/U “connoisseur”, I would definitely think that a Total would be easier to fix. A referee simply needs to start calling a lot more fouls (for an Over)…. Or a lot less fouls (for an Under). It’s a lot more difficult to dictate a Side. If someone gets injured or doesn’t show up or is having a terrible night or whatever, you can’t do it. Although some are claiming that you can favor the visiting team in a Side Play if you simply do this: Put the home team’s STAR player in early foul trouble. We’ll check how the visiting team did in Donaghy’s games in a minute. But let’s first take a look at the Totals. Donaghy's over/under record during the time in question (depending on your line) was 79-51-2 (60.7 % “Over”). That breaks down to 35-25-1 O/U in the 2005/2006 season (59% “Over”)… and a more blatant 44-26-1 O/U in the 2006/20-07 season (63% “Over”). He must have been in dire straights late in the year as he finished the recently-concluded 2007 season on a 14-4 O/U run (78% “Over”!) including 4-1 O/U in the NBA playoffs (80% “Over).

In the 2006/2007 season, here’s the OU breakdown by month:

OCT/NOV: 6-5 O/U
DECEMBER: 8-4 O/U (67%)
JANUARY: 6-5 O/U (54%)
FEBRUARY: 8-4 O/U (67%)
MARCH: 7-4 O/U (64%)
APRIL: 5-3 O/U (63%)
PLAYOFFS: 4-1 O/U (80%)

Any more revealing numbers in the 2006/2007 season? Perhaps from an ATS standpoint?

Check this out: Donaghy also went 41-28-2 ATS for ALL visiting teams in the 2006/2007 season. That’s an ATS winning percentage of almost 60% for the road team. The most notable instance of such an event was the Feb. 26 game between the New York Knicks and Miami Heat. In that game the Knicks were favored by 4 1/2 points and ended winning by six after New York went to the foul line 39 times to Miami’s eight. Shaquille O’Neal played only 23 minutes in that game and had five fouls. Remember what we said earlier about putting a star player in early foul trouble. Chances are if you played a PARLAY of the Visitor and the Over in all of his games, you also turned a very generous profit.

Now let’s take a look at some game time line adjustments. Oddsmakers will adjust the line if a large number of wagers or a large amount of money comes in on one side (or total) of a given game. If someone was fixing games, you’d likely see some significant line movement at the sportsbook. Interestingly, in games that Donaghy officiated last season which had adjustment in the pointspread before tip-off, the majority of these were covered by the team receiving the heavy betting action. Tim Donaghy was the ONLY referee to finish in the top six for point differential between the average closing total and average actual total in both of the last two seasons. Here are the numbers in a couple of charts for the top six refs in each of the last two seasons:


2006-07 Season
Referee Over/Under Closing Total Actual Total Differential
Joe Crawford 15-27-1 197.05 191.1 5.95
Jim Clark 28-26 195.66 201.6 5.94
Bennett Salvatore 41-32 196.37 201.2 5.23
Tim Donaghy 44-26-2 196.26 201.2 4.94
Tommy Nunez Jr. 37-24 197.98 202.4 4.92
Olandis Poole 37-20 196.53 201.4 4.87


2005-06 Season
Referee Over/Under Closing Total Actual Total Differential
Derrick Stafford 50-23-1 194.24 200.9 6.66
Bennie Adams 25-43 192.35 186.9 5.45
David Guthrie 31-19 193.58 198.9 5.32
Pat Fraher 36-22-1 193.6 198.8 5.20
Eli Roe 33-17 192.72 197.7 4.98
Tim Donaghy 36-30 192.14 196.8 4.66


Let’s do some more Over / Under breakdowns from last season. First off is a review of his OU and ATS results based on the day of the week:

MONDAYS: Home teams went 5-6-1 ATS / OU: 7-5 (58% “Over”)
TUESDAYS: Home teams went 6-2 ATS / OU: 3-5 (38% “Over”)
WEDNESDAYS: Home teams went 3-11 ATS! / OU: 12-3 (80% “Over”!)
THURSDAYS: Home teams went 1-0 ATS / OU: 0-0-1
FRIDAYS: Home teams went 8-6 ATS / OU: 8-6 (57% “Over”)
SATURDAYS: Home teams went 5-7 ATS / OU: 7-5 (58% “Over”)
SUNDAYS: Home team went 0-9 ATS! / OU: 7-2 O/U (78% “Over”!)

Looks like Wednesdays and Sundays were the two days of the week in which you could really unload on a Donaghy game as Visiting teams went an amazing 20-3 ATS (87%) and the Over went 19-5 O/U (79%)!


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