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 Post subject: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 5:58 am 
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I want one Horse!

Not the usual 3 horses that all have a chance

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 8:43 am 
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Verrazano.

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 8:59 am 
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Verrazano is going to be the favorite, so I don't think you should go there.


I really like Revolutionary, it's proven that he can fight thru traffic.


My 2nd favorite will be Goldencents.

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 10:20 am 
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spmack wrote:
Verrazano is going to be the favorite, so I don't think you should go there.


I really like Revolutionary, it's proven that he can fight thru traffic.


My 2nd favorite will be Goldencents.

He only wanted one horse!

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 10:39 am 
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newper wrote:
spmack wrote:
Verrazano is going to be the favorite, so I don't think you should go there.


I really like Revolutionary, it's proven that he can fight thru traffic.


My 2nd favorite will be Goldencents.

He only wanted one horse!

So why did you give him the chalk? When was the last time a chalk won?

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 10:54 am 
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Last 10 Winners, only 3 chalks.....



2012 - I'll Have Another
Odds - 15-1

2011 - Animal Kingdom
Odds - 21-1

2010 - Super Saver
Odds - 8-1

2009 - Mine That Bird
Odds - 50-1

2008 - Big Brown (chalk)
Odds - 5-2

2007 - Street Sense (chalk)
Odds - 5-1

2006 - Barbaro
Odds - 6-1

2005 - Giacomo
Odds - 50-1

2004 - Smarty Jones (chalk)
Odds - 4-1

2003 - Funny Cide
Odds - 13-1

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 12:39 pm 
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Black Onyx

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 1:06 pm 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Black Onyx

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 1:17 pm 
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Unofficial PP's...Code West and Gov Charlie are both out, Baffert will have no horses this year.


Speed Last Race
106Goldencents
105 Mylute
105Revolutionary
101 Will Take Charge
100Golden Soul
100 Verrazano
99Govenor Charlie
99Normandy Invasion
99 Vyjack
97Code West
97Orb
96 Black Onyx
96Charming Kitten
96Java's War
96Overanalyze
96 Palace Malice
94Itsmyluckyday
92 Frac Daddy
92 Tiz a Minister
91 Falling Sky
90Oxbow
90 Power Broker
86 Winning Cause
NA Lines of Battle


Back Speed
106Goldencents
105 Mylute
105Revolutionary
104Normandy Invasion
104Overanalyze
100Golden Soul
100 Verrazano
99Govenor Charlie
99 Vyjack
97Code West
97Orb
97 Palace Malice
96 Black Onyx
96Charming Kitten
96Java's War
94Itsmyluckyday
92 Frac Daddy
92 Tiz a Minister
91 Falling Sky
90Oxbow
90 Power Broker


Avg Class Last 3 Races
122.5 Verrazano
122.0Itsmyluckyday
121.1Orb
120.9Goldencents
120.7Normandy Invasion
120.4Overanalyze
120.2 Vyjack
119.8Revolutionary
119.7Java's War
119.6Oxbow
119.4 Mylute
119.4 Palace Malice
119.3 Falling Sky
119.3 Tiz a Minister
118.8 Will Take Charge
118.6Code West
118.5Charming Kitten
118.5 Power Broker
118.2Lines of Battle
118.0Golden Soul
117.5Govenor Charlie
117.2 Frac Daddy
116.9 Black Onyx
116.4 Winning Cause


Prime Power
153.4 Verrazano
151.2Revolutionary
149.2Goldencents
149.1Itsmyluckyday
148.8 Palace Malice
147.8Overanalyze
147.3 Mylute
147.2Code West
146.9Orb
145.9 Power Broker
144.8 Vyjack
144.5Oxbow
143.5Normandy Invasion
143.1Charming Kitten
142.9 Falling Sky
141.6Govenor Charlie
140.8Java's War
139.6 Frac Daddy
138.8Golden Soul
138.8 Will Take Charge
138.6 Black Onyx
136.6 Tiz a Minister
135.2Lines of Battle
134.4 Winning Cause



Early Pace last race
114Code West
101Goldencents
97 Falling Sky
97 Mylute
97 Power Broker
95Revolutionary
94 Frac Daddy
92 Will Take Charge
90Overanalyze
89Govenor Charlie
86 Black Onyx
86 Palace Malice
84Oxbow
83Golden Soul
82Charming Kitten
80Itsmyluckyday
78 Winning Cause
77 Tiz a Minister
76Orb
73Java's War
73 Verrazano
71Normandy Invasion
70 Vyjack
NA Lines of Battle



Late Pace Last Race
114Normandy Invasion
110Java's War
109 Vyjack
108 Verrazano
104Charming Kitten
103Orb
100Golden Soul
99Govenor Charlie
97Goldencents
96Itsmyluckyday
96 Mylute
96 Palace Malice
96 Tiz a Minister
94 Black Onyx
94Revolutionary
94 Will Take Charge
92Overanalyze
91 Winning Cause
85Oxbow
81 Frac Daddy
76Code West
76 Falling Sky
72 Power Broker
NA Lines of Battle

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 2:08 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 2:13 pm 
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dumb question: can you bet on the Derby at Arlington Park?

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 2:21 pm 
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doug - evergreen park wrote:
dumb question: can you bet on the Derby at Arlington Park?

Most definitely. They may charge you a few bucks for general admission, but I'm not sure. Hawthorne and Maywood Park charge 3 bucks.

All of the OTB's outside of the City of Chicago are free. The two OTB's in the city charge $2.

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 5:50 pm 
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spmack wrote:
Verrazano is going to be the favorite, so I don't think you should go there.


I really like Revolutionary, it's proven that he can fight thru traffic.


My 2nd favorite will be Goldencents.

Beg to differ spmack Orb will be favorite after his workouts a wise guy horse...remember 1 winner and 18 losers!

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:59 pm 
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spmack wrote:
Last 10 Winners, only 3 chalks.....


What other position yields 30% winners?? The 10-1's always win 40% of the derbys?

Plus if you are winning 30% of the time, then you only need to be 3-1 to be a positive payout, which I would imagine will be the case.

If you are more confident of another horse, I'd be willing to bet you heads up on who finishes better.

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 9:19 am 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
spmack wrote:
Verrazano is going to be the favorite, so I don't think you should go there.


I really like Revolutionary, it's proven that he can fight thru traffic.


My 2nd favorite will be Goldencents.

Beg to differ spmack Orb will be favorite after his workouts a wise guy horse...remember 1 winner and 18 losers!




Andy Serling ‏@andyserling 7m
As my friend @DougieSal just pointed out, this year's likely Derby favorite, Orb, ran 11 lengths slower than Dreaming of Julia, same day.......and same distance, at the same track. Good thing Fear the Kitten was able to prove his Derby worthiness over Dreaming of Julia.

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 9:22 am 
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Just discovered there is a Trackside OTB in Waukegan and McHenry. Still might have to try and make it to the park. OTB at Arlington is free. Admission is $12 on Saturday.

Think I may have to bet some ponies!

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 9:24 am 
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newper wrote:
spmack wrote:
Last 10 Winners, only 3 chalks.....


What other position yields 30% winners?? The 10-1's always win 40% of the derbys?

Plus if you are winning 30% of the time, then you only need to be 3-1 to be a positive payout, which I would imagine will be the case.

If you are more confident of another horse, I'd be willing to bet you heads up on who finishes better.

I was just saying that chalks lose more than they win, and the only time chalks win is when it is considered an all time horse. From what I can gather, there are no "all time" horses in this derby from what handicappers are saying.

Revolutionary finishes better than Verrazano in my opinion. $5 bet?

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 10:47 am 
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spmack wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
spmack wrote:
Verrazano is going to be the favorite, so I don't think you should go there.


I really like Revolutionary, it's proven that he can fight thru traffic.


My 2nd favorite will be Goldencents.

Beg to differ spmack Orb will be favorite after his workouts a wise guy horse...remember 1 winner and 18 losers!




Andy Serling ‏@andyserling 7m
As my friend @DougieSal just pointed out, this year's likely Derby favorite, Orb, ran 11 lengths slower than Dreaming of Julia, same day.......and same distance, at the same track. Good thing Fear the Kitten was able to prove his Derby worthiness over Dreaming of Julia.

Spmack longshots don't have the best beyers or comparisions races like the top horses. What did these to twatters like last year probably said the same shit about I'll have another!

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 12:18 pm 
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Eddie Olczyz like Revolutionary.

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 6:21 pm 
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doug - evergreen park wrote:
Just discovered there is a Trackside OTB in Waukegan and McHenry. Still might have to try and make it to the park. OTB at Arlington is free. Admission is $12 on Saturday.

Think I may have to bet some ponies!


I typically do my derby wagers at the Arlington OTB the morning of the derby. Easy in--easy out. However the track opens on friday with free admission and 3pm post time so this time I will go after work for the last 4 or 5 races and just place my derby wagers then.

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 7:00 pm 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Black Onyx

I like Black Onyx too.

I'm rolling with Normandy Invasion.

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 8:40 pm 
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Irish Boy wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Black Onyx

I like Black Onyx too.

I'm rolling with Normandy Invasion.

I was reading your 6000 word report last year :D , and you were pretty spot on. While of course you didn't say "bet the house on I'll Have Another", you didn't necessarily say no to him either. Hoping you do one this year, too. I will write one, but it will be from a very novice standpoint.

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 8:47 pm 
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Unless something changes, my top 3 are Revolutionary-Goldencents-Vyjack.


Itsmyluckyday will by mid-shot horse.


Palace Malice will be my long shot (20 and over) horse.

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 9:05 pm 
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spmack wrote:
Irish Boy wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Black Onyx

I like Black Onyx too.

I'm rolling with Normandy Invasion.

I was reading your 6000 word report last year :D , and you were pretty spot on. While of course you didn't say "bet the house on I'll Have Another", you didn't necessarily say no to him either. Hoping you do one this year, too. I will write one, but it will be from a very novice standpoint.

I was pretty neutral on I'll Have Another, but I thought the combination of the gate and the young jockey would doom him. He was given a masterful ride and proved much the best. I also thought the California races were being overrated, which I was dead wrong about.

The Derby prep is coming.

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2013 8:16 am 
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It's looking like shit weather for Saturday, so I think I may just do the OTB Saturday morning.

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2013 8:25 am 
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doug - evergreen park wrote:
It's looking like shit weather for Saturday, so I think I may just do the OTB Saturday morning.


I'm not sure exactly where you are, but Nicolino's in McHenry is in the middle of nowhere way the hell out off Bull Valley Road. Trackside Waukegan may be your best bet, but there's also an OTB at River and Milwaukee called Player's.

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2013 8:39 am 
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You mean 2500 feet west of Highway 31 near the massive Medical Center? :lol:

Arlington and Waukegan are about the same distance.

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2013 8:46 am 
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doug - evergreen park wrote:
You mean 2500 feet west of Highway 31 near the massive Medical Center? :lol:



I guess it's convenient for somebody. :lol: I used to eat lunch there a couple times a week when I was on the road selling. Our HQ was near Randall and Algonquin. I'd meet guys from the office up there. I like Nicolino's but it was a haul from Algonquin. It was a haul from Mundelein. It was a haul from Libertyville. But I'm a guy who thinks anything west of Cicero Avenue is the boonies.

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2013 4:38 pm 
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Revolutionary gets the 3rd post.

Verrazano is on the 14th.

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 Post subject: Re: Derby Winner
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2013 4:46 pm 
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1 -- Black Onyx / K. Breen / J. Bravo
2 -- Oxbow / D. Lukas / G. Stevens
3 -- Revolutionary / T. Pletcher / C. Borel
4 -- Golden Soul / D. Stewart / R. Albarado
5 -- Normandy Invasion / C. Brown / J . Castellano
6 -- Mylute / T. Amoss / R. Napravnik
7 -- Giant Finish / T. Dutrow / J. Espinoza
8 -- Goldencents / D. O'Neil / K. Krigger
9 -- Overanalyze / T. Pletcher / R. Bejarano
10 -- Palace Malice / T. Pletcher / M. Smith
11 -- Lines of Battle / A. O'Brien / R. Moore
12 -- Itsmyluckyday / E. Plesa / E. Trujillo
13 -- Falling Sky / J. Terranova II / L. Saez
14 -- Verrazano / T. Pletcher / J. Velazquez
15 -- Charming Kitten / T. Pletcher / E. Prado
16 -- Orb / S. McGaughey / J. Rosario
17 -- Will Take Charge / D. Lukas / J. Court
18 -- Frac Daddy / K. McPeek / V. Lebron
19 -- Java's War / K. McPeek / J. Leparoux
20 -- Vyjack / R. Rodriguez / G. Gomez

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