Orb

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Sounds good! I also think a lot of chalks instantly become an all time horse these days if they win because it is foolish to keep racing them when you can breed for guaranteed money.

I'd give the edge to Verrzano because I like the run style better. To pick a horse to finish top three, I'd go for one that likes to stalk just off the pace... coming from the back of the field often causes problems in the Derby because there are too many lame ass horses in the way. They never will, but I would love to see the field reduced to at most 16 horses.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

My father bought me a ticket to accompany him to the Derby Party area which I think are some tents over at AP... but they have four hours of open bar, so at least I'll be able to drown my sorrows as I miss all the AP races earlier in the day.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

Having no idea about horse betting except from movies/tv there looks to be some rain in Louisville.

Any of these horses mudders?

Brisnet PP

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... 2013-05-04


Irish Boy, when will you write your preview?

I am not sure I will have time to do a "from a novice perspective", as I just moved and my new place does not have internet yet and I won't have time to do it at work.

From what I can tell you now though, is that Revolutionary getting 10-1 is excellent. Itsmyluckyday is even better at 15-1.

I'm still laughing at IB's and WWN's Black Onyx and his 50-1 odds. Sorry.


Unless something changes, I still like my tri of 3-8-20.

edit: tri-box of 3(Revolutionary), 8(Goldencents), 20(Vyjack).

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Didn't a 50-1 long shot win a few years back?

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Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

There have been a few big longshots recently, Mine That Bird, Giacomo.

I think Orb is the best horse in this field. Verrazano and It'smyluckyday would be next. I have questions about It'smyluckyday going ten panels but he's a gutsy animal. Verrazano appears as if his form may be tailing off. I read an interesting article about Pletcher's lack of success in the Triple Crown series. His horses have a huge winning percentage off 90 days. The grind of the Derby chase may be something he simply hasn't figured out. Especially this year with the new points system where you actually had to race your way in rather than using the preps to set your horse up.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

And while I am laughing at Black Onyx and his 50-1 odds, I should also say that with the new points system, a 50-1 horse winning wouldn't be that much of a surprise. If you look at the Derby prep races of 2013, you'll notice that a few horses with high odds at the time won.....Will Take Charge (#17) comes to mind, as he won the Rebel Stakes at 28-1 back in March. Of course, who could forget I've Struck A Nerve, who won the Risen Stakes at 135-1 a few months back and would have been in this Derby except for an ankle injury.....so don't just look at 30-1 or 50-1 horse and immediately discount him, not this year anyway......so I guess I should say "Camps, who you crappin?"

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Well, it would make sense that the new points system might lead to shorter-priced horses winning the Derby. Trainers are forced to show their hand. Where in the past a guy might not be concerned with winning Florida Derby or the Wood. Now it's imperative that they do. I think it will be a little easier to know who the best horses are. You can't just lie in the weeds and point for a peak on the first Saturday in May anymore. You've really got to race your way in.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Ya think? I could see that in Goldencents. Don't see it in Orb. He's a Gulfstream horse.

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I just think there will be less hidden form. I expect most of the logical horses to race well. Of course, the large field and the distance are still the wild cards.

Man, I think Orb is a dominating motherfucker. He's mature and versatile. I think very highly of It'smyluckyday and Orb toyed with him in Florida.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Here's the Brisnet PP's for last year's Derby....

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYDerby12.pdf

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They way you feel about Orb is the way I feel about Revolutionary. He's fearless.

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Does anyone every read the people who leave comments on DRF.com before a big race?


http://www.drf.com/news/2013-kentucky-derby-field-odds

It's a bunch of yelling from people about how right they are, with maybe one or two people that predict something correctly.....kinda like this place, in a way.



A few people are high on Black Onyx. I've stopped laughing.

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That's my nickname for certain body parts.

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Kid Cairo's Boers & Bernstein YouTube Channel

Kid Cairo: 2013 March Madness Tournament Winner!

"Cowabunga? Cowa fucking piece of dog shit! This game is diarrhea coming out of my dick!"

So, this is what I'm thinking of doing as of right now.

$2 to win each, $12 total:
1, 3, 4, 5, 10, 13.

$2 tri-box, $12 each, $60 total:
3, 8, 20
12, 14, 16
3, 8, 16
3, 12, 16
3, 5, 12

$72

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@audioidkid

Spmack asswipes like Batagallia make the morning lines.Was at Churchill early april and Black Onyx has been there a month...this horse is a huge underlay...the final odds are determined by dickheads like me

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Black Onyx, WWN and IB's long shot horse, has been scratched.

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Early betting so far: Orb at 5-1, Normandy Invasion 8-1, Itsmyluckyday and Verrazano at 11-1. If Verrazano stays at 10 or over, I will have to lay a few on him.

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J.J. Hysell ‏@trifectabox 1m
Early #KyDerby bettors steering clear of No. 20 Vyjack, who is 47-1 off 15-1 M/L

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

That was a tweet, WWN. Not my thoughts.

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You posted it...so you sorta of agreed with it? or will you just post tweets?

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

My point was to tell people that Orb ain't all of that. I just posted in the other thread that Verrazano's odds keep going up and up, which is making me like him.

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The win odds after the 1st Day of Wagering


2) Oxbow - 25-1
3) Revolutionary -  5-1
4) Golden Soul - 31-1
5) Normandy Invasion - 8-1
6) Mylute 14-1
7) Giant Finish - 44-1
Goldencents - 5-1
9) Overanalyze - 14-1
10) Palace Malice - 25-1
11) Lines of Battle - 42-1
12) Itsmyluckyday - 11-1
13) Falling Sky - 48-1
14) Verrazano - 11-1
15) Charming Kitten - 32-1
16) Orb - 6-1
17) Will Take Charge - 31-1
18) Frac Daddy - 15-1
19) Java's War - 22-1
20) Vyjack - 43-1

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I can't imagine #14 Verrazano not getting bet back down by the populace tomorrow, but I could still see a 7-1 or 8-1 which I still think has quite a bit of value. If it remains 10-1 or north of that, it's really good. An undefeated horse will catch some eyeballs. Also not surprised to see #8 Goldencents or #3 Revolutionary bet down to where they are due to the Kentucky connections. One horse I will probably have some money on tomorrow is the #9 Overanalyze -- went five wide into the second turn in the AR Derby, and rallied... also had a similar wide trip but on both turns in the Gotham, although didn't come back. #15 Charming Kitten worries me a bit as a trifecta killer because the horse has only run on polytrack so far, and did have a pretty good run in the Bluegrass.

Edit: Watched the Wood -- #5 Normandy Invasion had a lot of horse left at the end of that one... and watching the Risen Star, also got out of the gate really bad... hmmm have to put him in there I think.

Edit2: Watched the Bluegrass -- #19 Java's War makes a hell of a comeback.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

What they tweeting now

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Had SP Mack throw down a $5 across on 16, with my $25 across on 14. Should have switched that up!

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"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

Did not win.

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@audioidkid

Also did not win. But won on some other races at Arlington earlier in the day, and my dad hit the 12th with that British horse so as a group we walked out a winner. But alone, newper walked out about 50 bucks down. Racing Party area was weird.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas