Don't listen to me.

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Kentucky Derby Beyer Speed Figures Since 1987, courtesy of TurfnSport.com

1987 Alysheba 104
1988 Winning Colors 113
1989 Sunday Silence 101
1990 Unbridled 116
1991 Strike the Gold 107
1992 Lil E. Tee 107
1993 Sea Hero 105
1994 Go for Gin 112
1995 Thunder Gulch 108
1996 Grindstone 112
1997 Silver Charm 115
1998 Real Quiet 107
1999 Charismatic 108
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 108
2001 Monarchos 116
2002 War Emblem 114
2003 Funny Cide 109
2004 Smarty Jones 107
2005 Giacomo 100
2006 Barbaro 111
2007 Street Sense 110
2008 Big Brown 109
2009 Mine That Bird 105
2010 Super Saver 104
2011 Animal Kingdom 103
2012 I'll Have Another 101
2013 Orb 104

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No I listen to you...pay attention another thing.JOR good handicapper...I have been betting 42 years and have never thrown a 2C bet.You have to bet with your head not
over it.You see how Joe bet the one he liked and bet exactas and tri's with other horses he liked.You'll learn spmack..I like you

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Who the hell was that palace horse that ran his ass in the lead for 3/4 and ran out of gas? Are the Preakness and Belmont shorter races?

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Elections have consequences.

Preakness yes, Belmont no.


Has anybody heard from Kirkwood? I am curious if he drowned or the southerners kidnapped his ass.

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2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

Alive. The rain made the infield an absolute shit show. Slip and slides, mud wrestling and mud dancing were prevalent. Met quite of few people walking to the gate entrances already shithoused even though Derby was 6 hours away.

Now I understand why the old farts love horse racing. Really fucking cool even with only getting to see the horses rip past you for a turn. Amateur handicappers, how did you learn to bet horses? Are there books or is just going to the track the best way to learn?

One of my favorite images of the '05 or '06 Derby (forget which year but there was this flash storm that flooded a lot of the infield) was watching people puking into thigh deep water and thinking that I should be much more careful where I am walking. Hope you enjoyed the trip Kirkwood!

The main thing to learn is that there is more to picking a winner than seeing who finished first the last time they raced. The Derby is much more of a crapshoot than most races (still, congrats to JORR.) Class is a huge thing to look at. A horse that wins a maiden 15k claimer by 5 lengths vs a horse that wins a optional claiming 80k by 2 are very different horses. Also, running style can be important to look at... if you have only one horse that is an early speed horse, they can often run off with the race, but if you have three or four horses that are early speed, they'll often pit themselves against each other too much and you'll see a closer take it. Then there's the breeding, workouts, etc. Lots of different things to look at. Experience is really a good thing there.

Might be fun to do a CSFMB handicapping contest sometime.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

Count me out!!!!!

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Yeah, we've all lost money and learned lessons. There are lots of different angles. And it depends on what you want to achieve. I have certain systems that absolutely will grind a profit. Some people say, "well, why not stop working and just bet then?" Because it is work and it's fucking drudgery to do all that work to squeeze out a small percentage. I'd rather make more phone calls.

I think in the era of the speed figure most handicappers have come to put too much of a premium on raw speed. And there is rarely any value in betting the fastest horse. Which leads to the most important thing- money management. There are lots of great handicappers. There are very few great money managers. If you're new to the game, I would advise you do everything you can to avoid falling into the trap of trying to "pick winners". You can't really pick winners. Nobody can. But you can evaluate the chances of each horse in a given race and make smart wagers.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Very well said

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I hear ya JORR.

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I like it!

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"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

My follow up would be how did you guys build knowledge of horse racing to develop your betting tendecies. For example, Newper, I don't even know what you mean by "maiden 15k claimer by 5 lengths vs a horse that wins a optional claiming 80k by 2". Is there a book or website that could help understand the lingo/background of horse racing?

I'm sure there's plently of resources that publish "running style, breeding, workouts, etc." but I don't even know the basics to even begin weighing those variables.

I read Andrew Beyer's first book to learn new tendencies. I wouldn't put a ton of stock in it but the examples showed things I never thought of and gave me opportunities to find some pricy winners.

I think all in all reviewing what you saw on a day will help you find new items that help you look at a race.

http://www.amazon.com/Picking-Winners-A ... 0395701325

That's a good one. Here's one of the first handicapping books I ever read:

http://www.amazon.com/Ainslies-complete ... pd_sim_b_1

It covers all the basics. After that you're ready for Davidowitz and Brohamer.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Fantasycapping.com is something I did last year, and it was pretty cool. You pick 1 race each week, though I don't think it starts until later in the year, as it's tied to the Breeder's Cup. I'll keep an eye open and post a link when it opens. We can set up a CSFMB league.

Is it much easier or more reliable to handicap harness? Just by sheer luck I seem to do ok with that?

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Elections have consequences.

No clue, but 20+ years later, I can tell you the names of the harness horses I won money on in the summer of 1990: Fox Valley Clipper, Zester Jester, and Lil Pol.

Button 48 please.

JORR, WWN, (and others..)

http://wnst.net/horse-racing/2013-kyder ... ico-day18/

This guy Gary Quill didn't get the order right, but he picked the Top 3 horses, so if you were smart enough to do a tri box based on his picks, you became a rich man Saturday eve....

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Harness to me is a bit easier if you can figure out trip handicapping. For example, look at a race and determine who is going to the front end and who will be the likely first over horse, or the horse coming second over.....and how the pace is going to be. To me, I had a knack for looking at a race and maybe my horse didn't win, but I had his trip figured out to give him a shot to get in the winners circle.

I want a CSFMB trip to Balmoral.

Eaglo should be able to hook up some ruffians like us.

Whose coming with me?

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I would do an Arlington. No reason to slum it up.

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"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

Looks like I need more research. I have been picking the fastest end times and did ok. I also hate the break stride thing.

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Elections have consequences.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

How about an OTB get together for the Preakness and AP later for some big stakes races

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Finish times are important but what is more important at some tracks is the back halves and final quarters. There are many angles in harness racing but the biggest thing is to figure out the race setup.

That's what I meant by finish actually was the final 1/4 of the race. If they are fastest there and have shown last several races I look at them. There has to be more to learn though.

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Elections have consequences.

There is.

For example, you have to see how the race went - if the horse you are looking at ran a last quarter of 29 flat but the winner did 28 - the 29 looks good, but apparently wasn't that fast maybe because they went slow through the first 3/4 of a mile etc.

Bump. Orb is now retiring. He may have won this Derby, but my thoughts were not far off, WWN.

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I was just thinking about this this morning. I overrated Orb . Looking back, I made a bad bet in the Derby. Nice to cash, but in hindsight 5/1 wasn't enough. I was sure he was the best of his crop. Maybe he was. Who else? Palace Malice? Will Take Charge? I woukd guess WTC is 3 year old of the year.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don