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The last two Stanley Cup winners out of the West will meet in the Conference Finals, and despite the lack of playoff history—they last met in 1974—it already shapes up to be a terrific series. The Kings are the prototypical playoff team—big, strong, and built from the net out—while the Blackhawks are considerably smaller and place more of an emphasis on offensive production.
It's a series that will shape the perception of what matters in a playoff team.
Even strength
Los Angeles Kings close-game Fenwick: 57.4% (Rank: 1st in NHL)
Chicago Blackhawks close-game Fenwick: 55.8% (Rank: 2nd in NHL)
Total: Los Angeles Kings, 1.6%
A common immediate reaction following Chicago's overtime, Game 7 victory over Detroit was that the four teams left in the postseason are the best four teams in the league. In the West, the possession numbers certainly support that; the Kings have the edge here, but both teams are superb.
Interestingly, things have changed significantly in the postseason—Chicago leads the West in Fenwick close (54.3%), but Los Angeles has dropped down to below even in that department (49.7%).
Advantage: Los Angeles Kings, narrowly
Chicago Blackhawks offense vs. Los Angeles Kings defense
Chicago Blackhawks offense: 21.6 GVT (Rank: 2nd in NHL)
Los Angeles Kings defense: 16.2 GVT (Rank: 4th in NHL)
Los Angeles Kings goaltending: -4.2 GVT (Rank: 17th in NHL)
Total: Chicago Blackhawks, 9.6 GVT
No team in the West scored more than the 155 goals (3.23 goals per game) Chicago managed, and while they have dropped to 2.75 goals per game in the playoffs, they have still scored at a higher rate than every team in the West other than Anaheim. The quartet of Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, and Patrick Sharp lead the way—and remarkably, Chicago has won two rounds despite getting very little production from Toews, arguably the most important player on the team.
Chicago is the only Western Conference team in the top eight in terms of shots per game in the postseason.
This is an incredibly dynamic offensive team, with a deep and balanced attack; if any club can pierce the defensive wall the Kings have erected, it will be the Blackhawks.
Jonathan Quick is the single most important player in this matchup. He is getting significant attention as a Conn Smythe candidate, and deservedly so: after a lousy regular season (37 games, .902 save percentage), he has been truly exceptional through two rounds (.948 save percentage). If he maintains the postseason performance that he has managed through his last six playoff rounds, Chicago is going to have a very tough time scoring.
The Kings are also a strong defensive team—they have a solid set of forwards, a good top six and a teamwide commitment to preventing goals. Even so, they allow more shots per game than the Blackhawks do.
Advantage: Chicago Blackhawks
Los Angeles Kings offense vs. Chicago Blackhawks defense
Los Angeles Kings offense: 3.6 GVT (Rank: 10th in NHL)
Chicago Blackhawks defense: 17.1 GVT (Rank: 3rd in NHL)
Chicago Blackhawks goaltending: 10.0 GVT (6th in NHL)
Total: Los Angeles Kings, -23.5 GVT
The funny thing about Los Angeles is that they have a fairly capable group of offensive players. Even ignoring the top line of Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown, and Justin Williams, they have Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Dustin Penner, and a group of defensemen that can move the puck up ice in a hurry. They were third in Western Conference goal scoring in the regular season, behind only Anaheim and Chicago.
They seem to have let all that go in the postseason. Averaging 2.0 goals per game, Los Angeles is tied with Vancouver for 11th in postseason offensive production; not only do all three remaining teams rank much higher, but eight eliminated clubs have scored as much or more on a per-game basis. This isn't a fluke of the percentages, either. No team in the playoffs has generated fewer shots per game than the Kings' 24.8. Even 15th-ranked Minnesota is worlds better, averaging three shots per game more than L.A.
Even more interesting: Los Angeles' third opponent this postseason was the best defensive squad in 2012-13, surrendering a league-low 102 goals.
In net, Corey Crawford is having an excellent playoffs after a brilliant campaign during the regular season. He has had one sub-.900 save percentage game in his last 20. He still catches some criticism for the goals that have been scored on him, but he is making a ridiculous percentage of stops and has all year.
The blue line showed some cracks against the Red Wings, but boasts three pairings that should be strengths. Former Norris Trophy winner Duncan Keith anchors the top unit along with Niklas Hjalmarsson, while veterans Johnny Oduya and Michal Rozsival hold down second-pairing duty. The third unit of Brent Seabrook and Nick Leddy has been lit up, but actually haven't been on the ice for that many shots against—they are just the guys with a terrible on-ice save percentage. This is a group that, taken together, was better in the regular season than they have been in the postseason; they have the talent to improve against Los Angeles.
Advantage: Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago Blackhawks power play vs. Los Angeles Kings penalty kill
Chicago Blackhawks power play: -4.4 GVT (Rank: 22nd in NHL)
Los Angeles Kings penalty kill: 1.2 GVT (Rank: 14th in NHL)
Total: Chicago Blackhawks, -5.6 GVT
Chicago's power play hasn't worked all year despite a wealth of talent. That hasn't changed in the playoffs. The Kings aren't particularly stellar penalty killers, but there is little reason to think they need to be.
Advantage: Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles Kings power play vs. Chicago Blackhawks penalty kill
Chicago Blackhawks penalty kill: 10.0 GVT (Rank: 2nd in NHL)
Los Angeles Kings power play: 5.0 GVT (Rank: 7th in NHL)
Total: Los Angeles Kings, -5.0 GVT
The other special teams matchup may be a case of the middling versus the worse-than-middling, but that doesn't extend to this matchup. Chicago had a tremendous penalty kill all year and is clicking at a 97.6% rate in the playoffs (though that has a lot more to do with a ridiculous run in net than it does with stellar shot prevention). The Kings have a solid power play, but they will be tested in this series.
Advantage: Chicago Blackhawks
Season Series
The Kings and Blackhawks met three times during the abbreviated 2013 NHL season, with the Blackhawks winning twice and the Kings once. Shots were even (84-84) and the Blackhawks had a 12-9 goal advantage.
Advantage: Chicago Blackhawks
Faceoffs
Chicago Blackhawks faceoff percentage: 50.8% (Rank: 11th in NHL)
Los Angeles Kings faceoff percentage: 52.0% (Rank: 4th in NHL)
Total: Los Angeles Kings, 1.2%
The playoffs are a testament to the near-irrelevance of faceoffs, at least in the West. The Kings rank 14th in postseason efficiency, at 45.7%, and they beat second-ranked San Jose (55.8%), while the 13th-ranked Blackhawks (47.6%) just defeated number three team Detroit (53.0%).
Advantage: Los Angeles Kings
Injuries and Intangibles
Both of these teams have won a Stanley Cup recently; there is very little to read here in terms of intangibles. There is a long break in the schedule, and both clubs will be rested after grueling seven-game series.
The Kings could use the rest. Jarret Stoll was concussed in their second round series against the Sharks; the news has mostly been good, but there has been no firm date set for his return. Kyle Clifford and Matt Greene both returned from injury in the last round, so the possibility exists that the entire team will be healthy (or at least "playoff healthy") for the opening game of the Western Conference Finals.
Chicago also got a little healthier in the second round, and the return of high-end checking center Dave Bolland was a significant boost to their lineup. Also getting healthy was backup goaltender Ray Emery, though he will only be called on if Crawford struggles.
Advantage: Chicago Blackhawks
Prediction
Chicago Blackhawks: 53.0 GVT (Rank: 1st in NHL)
Los Angeles Kings: 15.0 GVT (Rank: 8th in NHL)
Total: Chicago Blackhawks, 38.0 GVT
This is a series that should probably be seen as decidedly closer in fact than it is on paper based on regular season results. During 2013, the Kings thrived despite an awful performance from Jonathan Quick. With Quick on his game, they are a far more formidable rival.
However, the Kings won't get away with their lack of offensive production forever. Their shot rates are down 20% from where they were when they won the Stanley Cup last year, and their goal scoring is down 30%. They were able to sneak past St. Louis and San Jose with a popgun offense, but they won't be able to beat Chicago the same way.
Prediction: Chicago Blackhawks in six games
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great comparison
