DeLeon's last five years were worse than McDowell's.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Just for reference, if you just take BlackJack's first 6 years his ERA is about half a run lower and his whip is lower

both lower than DeLeon's career.

Now we're just talking about when they did something. And that's right. In baseball the "when" is critical. Most guys spouting "advanced" statistics are completely ignoring the "when". The assumption is that over time it will all spread out. It doesn't always happen that way.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Who ever said Joel Horlen was better than Catfish Hunter?

Nobody!

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

And the Sox already had their All Star in Crain. Yet Leyland felt that Sale deserved to be on the AS team. So he took him, and the Sox haven't even played the Tigers yet this season.

Freddy Garcia threw a one hitter in 2005 and lost 1-0. So I guess he sucked that day huh?

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All his numbers are better save his W/L record. Or are you switching to bad baseball thoughts now?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I wouldn't say he sucked. He just wasn't as good as the guy he faced. Who was that guy, huh? Do you remember? I don't think he was a bum.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

You are looking at bad numbers. Horlen pitched in one of the easiest parks in history. he didn't pitch that many innings. look at WAR, which at least accounts for park factors.

DeLeon WAS better than McDowell when he had a bad arm.

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

Can you post each pitcher's WAR? Thanks

WAR is just an aggregate of everything a guy did. Or it is attempting to be. Who are the guys with losing records and great WAR?

And yeah, park factors count. They count more than the stats reflect. Was Horlen's park "easier" than Felix Hernandez'?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

No. Pretend there isn't a tidy number that Nate Sliver or Bill James created for you. You're on your own here. Anyway, those W/L records show you which guy has the higher career WAR.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Why answer a question with 3 variables, when you have access to a lot more? Seems really silly. Useless, even.

Especially when the other available information paints a much better, more accurate picture.

I was always a big DeLeon fan as he was a Strat O Matic god on the hill because of his WHIP. Looking at the stats, didn't realize how good McDowell's numbers were early in his career as well.

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Proud member of the white guy grievance committee

It aint the six minutes. Its what happens in those six minutes.

Why let someone else come up with a number you barely understand so they can tell you how to think? And don't take that personally. Maybe you know WAR inside and out. Maybe you helped invent it. I don't know. But I do know most guys using it have no clue. The guys who are good are the guys you think are good. You're not going to look at stats one day and say "Man, check this out! Augie Ojeda was actually better than Cal Ripken!" Unless Nate Silver tells you to, of course.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I definitely understand it, and how it's put together. I obviously haven't memorized the precise formula, but I understand what the number is telling me.


And to answer your question.


I trust WAR, because it's measurably better than I am. Just looking at those numbers you posted, they actually seem like similar pitchers. However, they are not. One is a lot better. And by using the other available data, including the formula that aggregates them on my behalf, I come to a much better conclusion than I would have on my own.

And I gave you the number you needed to tell you that. It didn't need to be any more complicated.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Judging pitchers solely on wins is asinine.

That is all.

_________________

W-L is not all you need.

There are several examples but you would dismiss them as outliers.


Chris Sale is not the 45th best pitcher in baseball.

Bingo

From Wikipedia:

In 2009, Dave Cameron stated that fWAR does an "impressive job of projecting wins and losses".[15] He found that a team's projected record based on fWAR and that team's actual record has a strong correlation (correlation coefficient of 0.83), and that every team was within two standard deviations (σ=6.4 wins).[15]

In 2012, Glenn DuPaul conducted a regression analysis comparing the cumulative rWAR of five randomly selected teams per season (from 1996 to 2011) against those teams' realized win totals for those seasons. He found that the two were highly correlated, with a correlation coefficient of 0.91, and that 83% of the variance in wins was explained by fWAR (R2=0.83).[5] The standard deviation was 2.91 wins. The regression equation was:


which was close to the expected equation:


in which a team of replacement-level players is expected to have a .320 winning percentage, or 52 wins in a 162 game season.

To test fWAR as a predictive tool, DuPaul executed a regression between a team's cumulative player WAR from the previous year to the team's realized wins for that year. The resultant regression equation was:[5]


which has a statistically significant correlation of 0.59, meaning that 35% of the variance in team wins could be accounted for by the cumulative fWAR of its players from the previous season.[5]

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

WAR

Pitcher A: 2.3

Pitcher B: 1.3

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Well, that would have saved a lot of time

Pitcher A is Javy Vazquez. Pitcher B is John Danks.

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I like A better.

That was reflected in the W/L record. If citing WAR makes you feel smarter, be my guest.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Correlation is my God.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

It doesn't make me feel smarter. It saves me time, and generally makes me more right.


Just look at the sports genius NAS. He said B!!! Can you believe that?!?!?! But credit to him, he was wrong all by himself without any external factors.

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What's so hard to understand? E.r.a. and whip are more important than a win /loss %.

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