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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 8:28 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
They put the guy on base on purpose, because they feel it increases the chances of them getting more outs and giving up less runs. The goal is always give up the least amount of runs as possible, IMO. Yea, everything else is running through his head. Like, not letting a guy on base. But that's because he doesn't want to give up runs.


Sometimes, yes. Sometimes they put a guy on because they'd rather allow a likely one run than a potential three runs. Ultimately the goal is to score one more run than the opponent. That's really all that matters. Talking about run differential is another relatively new thing. And yeah, I know it generally correlates. But it isn't that the extra runs are causing the teams to have the better records, It's that a team that scores a lot more than it allows is pretty good. That isn't really some revelation.


No, that's the ultimate goal of the TEAM. Not the pitcher. The pitcher is not responsible for the runs their own team scores. The pitcher's ultimate goal is to allow the fewest number of runs possible. Period.


We've already agreed that isn't his goal by acknowledging that he sometimes concedes runs.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 8:28 am 
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Jim McMahon was the greatest QB ever.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:02 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
They put the guy on base on purpose, because they feel it increases the chances of them getting more outs and giving up less runs. The goal is always give up the least amount of runs as possible, IMO. Yea, everything else is running through his head. Like, not letting a guy on base. But that's because he doesn't want to give up runs.


Sometimes, yes. Sometimes they put a guy on because they'd rather allow a likely one run than a potential three runs. Ultimately the goal is to score one more run than the opponent. That's really all that matters. Talking about run differential is another relatively new thing. And yeah, I know it generally correlates. But it isn't that the extra runs are causing the teams to have the better records, It's that a team that scores a lot more than it allows is pretty good. That isn't really some revelation.


No, that's the ultimate goal of the TEAM. Not the pitcher. The pitcher is not responsible for the runs their own team scores. The pitcher's ultimate goal is to allow the fewest number of runs possible. Period.


We've already agreed that isn't his goal by acknowledging that he sometimes concedes runs.


1 - You're not addressing the key aspect of the pitcher not being responsible for the team scoring 1 more run.

2 - we agreed they concede runs to hedge against allowing MORE runs. The goal is still to prevent as many runs as possible.


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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:05 am 
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I think JORR is starting to convince me.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:09 am 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:
I think JORR is starting to convince me.

How could you read all of this?

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:10 am 
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Hawg Ass wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
I think JORR is starting to convince me.

How could you read all of this?


I have problems...

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:14 am 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:
Hawg Ass wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
I think JORR is starting to convince me.

How could you read all of this?


I have problems...

I see

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:31 am 
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Hawg Ass wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
I think JORR is starting to convince me.

How could you read all of this?

Thread is slightly easier to decipher than the Old Testament

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:31 am 
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Hawg Ass wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
I think JORR is starting to convince me.

How could you read all of this?

"Hank Scorpio is reading The Fielding Bible"


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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:34 am 
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I need to get back to the bible reading perhaps today on the train home.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:34 am 
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He actually was/is reading the Bible though.

He'll have to read it again after this thread.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:38 am 
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Ryan is interesting in that if strikeouts are the best result for a pitcher why isn't the best strikeout pitcher in history even in the conversation for best pitcher in history.


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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:39 am 
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War and Peace is a shorter read than this thread.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:42 am 
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KDdidit wrote:
Ryan is interesting in that if strikeouts are the best result for a pitcher why isn't the best strikeout pitcher in history even in the conversation for best pitcher in history.


Because he walked almost as many as he struck out. BB = ultimate sin for a pitcher.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:47 am 
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Apologist wrote:
Hawg Ass wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
I think JORR is starting to convince me.

How could you read all of this?

Thread is slightly easier to decipher than the Old Testament

Old Testament at least has different stories. Bucky, RPB and JORR have stated their opinions 100 different times and ways. The climax/twist of this thread is Hank Scorpio emerges to state he is thinking about changing his mind.

:lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:49 am 
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It makes sense. Run support will even out over a pitchers career. If you are a good pitcher you will have a good win %.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:51 am 
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Some pitchers just don't have TWTW. Luckily for them Hawk hasn't quantified that stat yet.


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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:56 am 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:
It makes sense. Run support will even out over a pitchers career. If you are a good pitcher you will have a good win %.



This is more or less true. You're going to need at least 10 years or so though for things to "even out." Even then, you'll have some exceptions. Look at Robin Roberts and the team he was stuck with.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:59 am 
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Razorbacks
Packers
Brewers

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:01 am 
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The Will to Win: TWTW

*all numbers based on a 1-10 scale, 1 being the lowest and 10 being the highest

(Players anger after a loss/players happiness following a win) * (players love of Yaz/players hatred of Joe West)

Current Sox leader in TWTW is Beckham at .613 and Lowest is DeAza at .375.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:08 am 
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Rank Player (yrs, age) Bases on Balls Throws
1. Nolan Ryan+ (27) 2795 R
2. Steve Carlton+ (24) 1833 L
3. Phil Niekro+ (24) 1809 R
4. Early Wynn+ (23) 1775 R
5. Bob Feller+ (18) 1764 R
6. Bobo Newsom (20) 1732 R
7. Amos Rusie+ (10) 1707 R
8. Charlie Hough (25) 1665 R

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 11:02 am 
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Hatchetman wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
It makes sense. Run support will even out over a pitchers career. If you are a good pitcher you will have a good win %.



This is more or less true. You're going to need at least 10 years or so though for things to "even out." Even then, you'll have some exceptions. Look at Robin Roberts and the team he was stuck with.


But he still lead the league in wins four or five times and his career percentage is what? I'm not going to look it up but I'll say around .550.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 11:12 am 
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Roberts was like 285-245 something like that. Much better pitcher than Whitey Ford though.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 11:17 am 
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I agree that ERA is a better predictor of future performance than W/L record. But W/L can also be telling. I'd be careful in counting on ERA as a predictor over W/L record as doing so has been costly for some teams.

There's an old racetrack saying, "Don't bet on a horse to do something he has never done before." Some guys live by that. It's a very conservative philosophy and I'm not a conservative guy. I often bet on a horses to do things they have never done before. I just demand a price I believe makes the risk worthwhile.

If we go back to when the Yankees traded for Javier Vazquez, I don't think you could have found a fan, an expert, a writer, or a baseball exec who didn't think Vazquez was going to put up huge win totals in New York. A Cy Young within the next few seasons was a foregone conclusion. I'm not telling you I didn't believe that myself. I certainly felt like it was a worthwhile risk. But the Yankees were asking Vazquez to do something he had never done before- give them a record significantly better than .500 and they took his ERA and K/BB ratios as evidence he could do it.

Anyway, I'd be careful in emptying out my farm system for a guy like that. With Garza, you're only asking him to give you the rest of the year and he's shown he's capable of that much. But to count on him as a rotation building block the way the Cubs did was probably short-sighted. You better be pretty smart if you think a guy with a 62-62 career record is going to come to your team and go 55-38 over the next four seasons. And when you trade for a guy like that, you aren't getting him so he can put up a 2.00 ERA in losing games. You're getting him to come into a pennant race and outpitch the guys who are starting against you for your divisional opponents. Whoever gets Garza isn't going to say it was a good trade if he goes 5-8 with a 2.78 ERA the rest of the way.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 11:18 am 
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Hatchetman wrote:
Roberts was like 285-245 something like that. Much better pitcher than Whitey Ford though.


:lol: Hah! I'd argue that with you all day long, but there are some very sharp guys who agree with you.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 11:22 am 
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When I look at Garza's stats, I look at ERA+, and IP/year (and age). Not overly impressive. Somebody is going to regret paying him a huge sum, if they do.

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 11:26 am 
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Hatchetman wrote:
When I look at Garza's stats, I look at ERA+, and IP/year (and age). Not overly impressive. Somebody is going to regret paying him a huge sum, if they do.



Oh, somebody is going to pay him because they also believe W/L record is meaningless. If they didn't, they'd find a much cheaper guy to go .500. It's why everyone always wanted Vazquez until they actually had him. Everyone thinks it's going to be different here. And there are plenty of times when it is. I know those guys too, but that isn't my argument so I won't point them out. :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 11:27 am 
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This thread is still alive?

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 11:28 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
Roberts was like 285-245 something like that. Much better pitcher than Whitey Ford though.


:lol: Hah! I'd argue that with you all day long, but there are some very sharp guys who agree with you.


Would any of them argue that Jamie Moyer was?

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 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 11:28 am 
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Terry's Peeps wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
Roberts was like 285-245 something like that. Much better pitcher than Whitey Ford though.


:lol: Hah! I'd argue that with you all day long, but there are some very sharp guys who agree with you.


Would any of them argue that Jamie Moyer was?


No or Nolan Ryan either.

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