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Rod
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 7:57 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
I don't think it would be crazy to say that he would have ended up at 296 or something.


That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard. If he had gotten to 296 they would have rolled him out to the mound in a wheelchair to strike out Dayan Viciedo so he could vulture four wins and get to 300.

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rogers park bryan
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:01 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
I don't think it would be crazy to say that he would have ended up at 296 or something.


That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard. If he had gotten to 296 they would have rolled him out to the mound in a wheelchair to strike out Dayan Viciedo so he could vulture four wins and get to 300.

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Rod
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:01 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
How many times do I have to say it's silly to look at a 16 game sample? Sale was a guy brought up by Frank in one of his many ad hominem attacks. The fact remains 5-8 is bad. if he contines to go 5-8 over every 16 games he pitches he will have a terrible career regardless of any other number you want to suggest is more important. But of course that won't happen.

Colorado pitchers are very pertinent to this discussion. ERA numbers and other peripherals were not going to be "good". But there is a win and a loss awarded in every game. The thing is, pitching in that park crushed some guys mentally. They went on the road and were just as bad.


You're not addressing the fact that his W/L record is entirely incomplete, and avoiding a lot of pertinent info to the question of "is he pitching well?"

And the "of course it won't happen" is because he's really good. Which is the opposite of what his record says.



I'm looking at his results- what happened. You're looking at his peripherals- the way it happened- and drawing a logical conclusion about what is going to happen in the future.

But I'm not involved in any transactions regarding Chris Sale. I'm not trying to predict his future. I'm a White Sox fan and I just hope he doesn't pitch so fucking great he goes 5-8 the rest of the season.

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Hatchetman
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:03 am 
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So far defense has been ignored. That's gotta be 15% of runs saved/scored. So we have pitching, defense, offense and their combined efforts earn a team a win or loss.

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Rod
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:03 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
I don't think it would be crazy to say that he would have ended up at 296 or something.


That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard. If he had gotten to 296 they would have rolled him out to the mound in a wheelchair to strike out Dayan Viciedo so he could vulture four wins and get to 300.

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297 W's :(

Inventor of the spitter /\


Nobody cared about milestones back then. Al Kaline finished with 399 homers. Maybe the Tigers can put him on the 40 man roster and let him bat against Matt Thornton later this season.

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Rod
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:04 am 
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Hatchetman wrote:
So far defense has been ignored. That's gotta be 15% of runs saved/scored. So we have pitching, defense, offense and their combined efforts earn a team a win or loss.


I think 15% is overstating it. Even the worst fielders in history make most of the plays.

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rogers park bryan
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:08 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
I don't think it would be crazy to say that he would have ended up at 296 or something.


That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard. If he had gotten to 296 they would have rolled him out to the mound in a wheelchair to strike out Dayan Viciedo so he could vulture four wins and get to 300.

Image

297 W's :(

Inventor of the spitter /\


Nobody cared about milestones back then. Al Kaline finished with 399 homers. Maybe the Tigers can put him on the 40 man roster and let him bat against Matt Thornton later this season.

You know im not actually arguing the point.

Of course they didnt care in 1880. Did humans even speak back then?
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Bucky Chris
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:11 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
How many times do I have to say it's silly to look at a 16 game sample? Sale was a guy brought up by Frank in one of his many ad hominem attacks. The fact remains 5-8 is bad. if he contines to go 5-8 over every 16 games he pitches he will have a terrible career regardless of any other number you want to suggest is more important. But of course that won't happen.

Colorado pitchers are very pertinent to this discussion. ERA numbers and other peripherals were not going to be "good". But there is a win and a loss awarded in every game. The thing is, pitching in that park crushed some guys mentally. They went on the road and were just as bad.


You're not addressing the fact that his W/L record is entirely incomplete, and avoiding a lot of pertinent info to the question of "is he pitching well?"

And the "of course it won't happen" is because he's really good. Which is the opposite of what his record says.



I'm looking at his results- what happened. You're looking at his peripherals- the way it happened- and drawing a logical conclusion about what is going to happen in the future.

But I'm not involved in any transactions regarding Chris Sale. I'm not trying to predict his future. I'm a White Sox fan and I just hope he doesn't pitch so fucking great he goes 5-8 the rest of the season.


My point is, you're not even looking at what happened. You're ignoring 3 starts out of 16.
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Rod
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:13 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

Nobody cared about milestones back then. Al Kaline finished with 399 homers. Maybe the Tigers can put him on the 40 man roster and let him bat against Matt Thornton later this season.

You know im not actually arguing the point.

Of course they didnt care in 1880. Did humans even speak back then?


I don't know, but they were slow, tiny, and white.

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Rod
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:16 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
How many times do I have to say it's silly to look at a 16 game sample? Sale was a guy brought up by Frank in one of his many ad hominem attacks. The fact remains 5-8 is bad. if he contines to go 5-8 over every 16 games he pitches he will have a terrible career regardless of any other number you want to suggest is more important. But of course that won't happen.

Colorado pitchers are very pertinent to this discussion. ERA numbers and other peripherals were not going to be "good". But there is a win and a loss awarded in every game. The thing is, pitching in that park crushed some guys mentally. They went on the road and were just as bad.


You're not addressing the fact that his W/L record is entirely incomplete, and avoiding a lot of pertinent info to the question of "is he pitching well?"

And the "of course it won't happen" is because he's really good. Which is the opposite of what his record says.



I'm looking at his results- what happened. You're looking at his peripherals- the way it happened- and drawing a logical conclusion about what is going to happen in the future.

But I'm not involved in any transactions regarding Chris Sale. I'm not trying to predict his future. I'm a White Sox fan and I just hope he doesn't pitch so fucking great he goes 5-8 the rest of the season.


My point is, you're not even looking at what happened. You're ignoring 3 starts out of 16.


No, I'm not. He didn't cover all the outs in those games, we know that much. I know that's something that doesn't happen often now. But generally the W/L argument is used for historic pitchers like Whitey Ford vs. Robin Roberts, for example. I've stated that in the era of the 7th, 8th and 9th inning reliever and the short starter game, W/L record is less telling.

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Bucky Chris
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:20 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

No, I'm not. He didn't cover all the outs in those games, we know that much. I know that's something that doesn't happen often now. But generally the W/L argument is used for historic pitchers like Whitey Ford vs. Robin Roberts, for example. I've started that in the era of the 7th, 8th and 9th inning reliever and the short starter game, W/L record is less telling.


I'll agree that it makes more sense to use it historically. You made the point about pitchers actually going 9 innings, which eliminates losses/wins caused by the bullpen, or by events that have happened when a pitcher is completely out of the game. That works better for the old days. That's a good point, and I agree.


But you're using it today, to talk about Chris Sale. It's not just less telling, to me. I just can't see how you can take a snapshot of a pitcher's performance using that, when better stats are available.
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Hatchetman
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:44 am 
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lotta info on defense value, but most stats guys agree on relative magnatude. John Dewan has difference between best and worst at a position is about 30 runs/year. That's a lot of runs. Bill James thought Runs saved/given up was 72% pitching, 28% defense.


Tom Tippett who created the computer baseball simulation used by MLB teams uses these type of weights, and you know what, his simulations come out pretty damn realistic after millions of games played.

Bottom line: if you put out butchers throughout the field, you will get killed.

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Rod
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 9:03 am 
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Hatchetman wrote:
John Dewan has difference between best and worst at a position is about 30 runs/year.


That sounds like a lot on the outfield corners. Anyway, I'll trust Dewan's research. But still, it would be rare for a team to have the worst guys all over. Although Detroit has a bunch of them right now.

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Hatchetman
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 9:08 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
That sounds like a lot on the outfield corners.


That's what I thought for a long time, but then changed my mind. Missed balls out there can be doubles, triples, and you got guys circling the bases at the same time. Puss-armed guys give up a lot of extra bases too. Guys wouldn't run against somebody like Jesse Barfield at all - even when they should have!

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redskingreg
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 9:20 am 
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I like that this discussion invoked a David Nied thought in my head.

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Rod
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 11:26 am 
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Would it be fair to say that Chris Sale is pitching better than almost everyone this season except on the days that he actually faces them?

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Bucky Chris
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 11:27 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Would it be fair to say that Chris Sale is pitching better than almost everyone this season except on the days that he actually faces them?


Clever, but no
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Frank Coztansa
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 11:28 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Would it be fair to say that Chris Sale is pitching better than almost everyone this season?
Yes.

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Apologist
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 1:02 pm 
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You guys are still here? :lol:

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Rod
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 1:04 pm 
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Yes, waiting to find out which inferior pitcher pitches better than Sale today.

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Hank Scorpio
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 1:36 pm 
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I love everything about this thread.

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KDdidit
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 3:01 pm 
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Sale's WHIP sucks today. This win will be tainted
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Rod
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 3:07 pm 
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KDdidit wrote:
Sale's WHIP sucks today. This win will be tainted


I'm not sure what this will look like in fifty years when you see the stats on the page, but anyone following this game today in the here and now knows Sale wasn't very good. But he guts it out and he should get the win (uh oh Thornton is in!). His team scored enough off a guy who had a lower ERA coming in. It happens that way sometimes too.

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Bucky Chris
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 3:31 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
KDdidit wrote:
Sale's WHIP sucks today. This win will be tainted


I'm not sure what this will look like in fifty years when you see the stats on the page, but anyone following this game today in the here and now knows Sale wasn't very good. But he guts it out and he should get the win (uh oh Thornton is in!). His team scored enough off a guy who had a lower ERA coming in. It happens that way sometimes too.


Whatever, JORR. :lol: Seems to be another example on the long list of reasons why W/L doesn't tell you enough about a pitcher.
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redskingreg
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 3:33 pm 
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None of you were actually at the game, so I don't know why you all care so much about W/L. You're fake fans anyway.

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Bucky Chris
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 3:34 pm 
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redskingreg wrote:
None of you were actually at the game, so I don't know why you all care so much about W/L. You're fake fans anyway.


I'm a fan of math and the internet.
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redskingreg
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 3:35 pm 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
redskingreg wrote:
None of you were actually at the game, so I don't know why you all care so much about W/L. You're fake fans anyway.


I'm a fan of math and the internet.


I'm just referencing one of JORR's other absurd thoughts.

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Hank Scorpio
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 3:39 pm 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
redskingreg wrote:
None of you were actually at the game, so I don't know why you all care so much about W/L. You're fake fans anyway.


I'm a fan of math and the internet.


Image

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Frank Coztansa
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 4:00 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I'm not sure what this will look like in fifty years when you see the stats on the page, but anyone following this game today in the here and now knows Sale wasn't very good. But he guts it out and he should get the win (uh oh Thornton is in!). His team scored enough off a guy who had a lower ERA coming in. It happens that way sometimes too.
:lol: :lol: You can't have it both ways. You can't look at his other stats to say he "wasn't very good" today, then look at just W-L to say he "has not had a good year."

He got the Win. That should be all that matters to you. If not, all of your posts in this thread are just bullshit trolling. If thats the case, I can only tip my cap because its now 20 some pages.

If not, I can only laugh at you.

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KDdidit
 Post subject: Re: Help!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 4:02 pm 
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Today Sale pitched like a guy who should have 8 losses.
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