Dave In Champaign wrote:
If your passing offense is as putrid as the Bears', you most certainly do have to be excellent in all other facets of the game, and sometimes even that's not enough (see: last season). A poor passing offense also makes it far more likely that the Bears (who, offensively speaking, have been a high-variance team since Cutler arrived) will be the victims of randomness than the beneficiaries of it.
I don't get the Ravens comparison at all. If we use Cutler's arrival as the comparison point, the Bears have gone 7-9, 11-5, 8-8, 10-6, with one division title (1-1 playoff record). In that same span, the Ravens have gone 9-7, 12-4, 12-4, 10-6, with two division titles, four total playoff appearances (7-3 playoff record) and a Super Bowl win. I'll spare us a comparison of the passing numbers, but suffice it to say, if you see these two teams as similar, you must think Trestman is some kind of sorcerer.
I used the Ravens as an example of a team with rather unremarkable personnel (outside of specific stars like Rice and Suggs) being able to go deep into the playoffs as a result of good coaching and taking advantage of random schedule and game quirks. The Ravens have been better record-wise over the time span you mentioned, but I don't believe there's a great talent disparity between the two teams despite the disparate records. Also, and this doesn't mean much, but the 8-8 season should have an asterisk affixed to it since they were something like 7-3 before Hanie replaced the injured Cutler and went 1-5.
This is admittedly simplistic of me, but if the 2012 Ravens can go deep into the playoffs, so can the 2013 Bears. I guess where we differ is where you seem to be pessimistic about the offense and its passing attack, I am slightly optimistic. In addition to a new TE and Jeffery's expected emergence as a solid possession WR, I am encouraged by Trestman and Emery's goal to get Forte involved as a receiver as well. I think 21-23 ppg is the ceiling for this team in its first year of Trestman's offense, and if the defense remains more or less consistent with last year's performance (3rd overall in points given up), the Bears are in the playoffs.