After listening to Mac sweating out last weeks Indy victory vs Oakland ( bet $1000 to win $200) while his wagering is generally pretty awful I think his logic is pretty sound. If youre that confident that a team is going to win, fuck those point spreads and just put the cash on the money line. I guess the drawback is being able to absorb those rare occasions where number 16 beats number 1 but shouldnt you in the long run come out ahead if you were to isolate 1 or 2 games a week that are generally locks? Need some of the more degenerate gamblers to explain why that would be a bad strategy. Too much risk to reward im assuming will be the answer but interested in hearing thoughts.

_________________
Proud member of the white guy grievance committee

It aint the six minutes. Its what happens in those six minutes.

If it was that easy, there wouldn't be more hotels going up in Vegas.

The NFL is the hardest sport to beat, and the casinos will tell you that, by their limits. Most casinos will limit college basketball totals to $500 or $1000. They will take five and six figure bets on the NFL.

If you want to say screw the points, take the ML, you look to underdogs.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Mac broke it down to people who are in confidence pools. I have no research to back this up but generally dont the top confidence picks win almost every time? I dont bet but taking that Colts Raiders game as a for instance , that seemed like a good play and theres always a couple games a week where there are prohibitive favorites. If an underdog is getting 14 points or something like that, isnt it easier just to say, I'll take the favorite in that game by playing the money line. They have to win those games the majority of the time dont they? I wonder how often double digit dogs actually win the game outright.

_________________
Proud member of the white guy grievance committee

It aint the six minutes. Its what happens in those six minutes.

Interesting article about this weekends sporting activities.


http://espn.go.com/espn/story/_/id/9669 ... ing-public

_________________
2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

More often than it's worth to take huge money lines.

Last week, only four favorites lost straight up, with the Steelers being the biggest. If you played every favorite on the money line, you came out ahead. That won't be the case most weeks. Some weeks will be an absolute bloodbath.

In this thread, I will track every money line each week, and we can see how it plays out for the entire season.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

That'll be cool to watch Chus, thanks.

_________________
Proud member of the white guy grievance committee

It aint the six minutes. Its what happens in those six minutes.

Every bet will be to win $100. All lines are from scoresandodds.com. I will use closing lines from 5dimes going forward. That is the best book available to U.S. customers, or U.S. Americans, as the former Miss South Carolina calls us.

week 1
Denver -300 W (+100)
New England -430 W (+100)
Pittsburgh -240 L (-240)
New Orleans -175 W (+100)
Tampa Bay -220 L (-220)
Kansas City -200 W (+100)
Bears -160 W (+100)
Cleveland -140 L (-140)
Seattle -155 W (+100)
Detroit -210 W (+100)
Indianapolis -550 W (+100)
St. Louis -180 W (+100)
San Francisco -205 W (+100)
Dallas -175 W (+100)
Washington -185 L (-185)
Houston -260 W (+100)

week 1: 12-4 (+$415)

Houston, New England, and Indy were close, and would have been disastrous.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

2013: 12-4 (+$415)

week 2
New England -575 W (+100)

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

I bet a lot of money lines with dogs, not favorites. I've seen people absolutely wreck putting all their money on favorites. They thought there was no chance of an upset and they were wrong. I do like ML for dogs, though.

_________________

I know it cant be that simplistic ( and Im sure the numbers will bear it out) but it seems that if you took the 2 biggest money lines and bet the favorites each week you'd win most of the time. I mean, do the favorites in those games actually lose most of the time straight up?

_________________
Proud member of the white guy grievance committee

It aint the six minutes. Its what happens in those six minutes.

Well, you have to bet a lot to win much of anything if its a decent favorite. And since you'd have to do that, the one time you lose (say 1 in 5), you'd probably lose everything you won. I'm sure if you did it 1,000 times, you'd wind up roughly even. I'm curious to see how it goes with Chus's test study.

_________________

Seems like a lot of capital to front for not much return. Hi Leash.

_________________
Elections have consequences.

Hey buddy.

_________________

No, they win most of the time, but it's the amounts that make this work or not. Say a team won 9 times out of 10 and was a -1500 moneyline. 90% of the time you would risk your $1500 to win $100, but one out of the ten times, you'd lose that $1500. That would net out to a -$600 total. You simply aren't making enough to cover the one time it doesn't work. I'll run the money line for the NCAA this week and report results via a google doc link later today.

So i ran it with scores so far, and today you would be up $630 betting to win $100 for each favorite. Of course, it would also take you $447,590 to make these bets. Temple losing to Fordham cost 1375, and South Florida cost 450. Assuming some of the other in progress games go the direction they are going (UNLV loses, ASU loses, etc.) You also were somewhat close to losing 5k on NIU (they won by 10) as well as 45k on Michigan (they won by 4.)

_________________
"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

2013: 12-4 (+$415)

week 2
New England -575 W (+100)
Philadelphia -310 L (-310)
Baltimore -250 W (+100)
Houston -330 W (+100)
Indianapolis -115 L (-115)
Carolina -178 L (-178)
Atlanta -205 W (+100)
Green Bay -345 W (+100)
Kansas City -168 W (+100)
Bears -250 W (+100)
New Orleans -164 W (+100)
Detroit -115 L (-115)
Oakland -190 W (+100)
Denver -185 W (+100)
Seattle -153 W (+100)
Cincinnati -280 W (+100)

week 2: 12-4 (+$482)
2013: 24-8 (+$897)

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

So in 2 weeks we've out earned Macs show pot?

_________________
Proud member of the white guy grievance committee

It aint the six minutes. Its what happens in those six minutes.

My kids could probably make better plays than Mac, and his crew of experts. This is a very small sample size. I suspect these numbers will not continue, especially later in the season. One of these weeks will be an absolute blood bath. I will be shocked if the balance isn't negative at season's end.

Mac and I had an exchange on twitter, where I laughed at him laying -700 on Indy ML. He claimed it was "more like -500". Why not give me the actual number? Because it was -700. He said, "if you bet every highest confidence pool pick last year, you went 14-3 $$$".

Some simple math shows that if you win $100 fourteen times, and lose $500 or more, three times, you lose money. No wonder why he gets his ass handed to him, year after year.

The idea that one should tie their bets to picks in confidence pools is ludicrous.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

It's incredible that a life-long gambler doesn't understand that.

_________________

2013: 24-8 (+$897)

Philadelphia -168 L -168
New Orleans -345
NY Giants -118
Dallas -162
Detroit -115
Minnesota -270
New England -320
Baltimore -120
Tennessee -147
Green Bay -145

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

2013: 24-8 (+$897)

Philadelphia -168 L -168
New Orleans -345 W +100
NY Giants -118 L
Dallas -162 W +100
Detroit -115 W +100
Minnesota -270 L -270
New England -320 W +100
Baltimore -120 W +100
Tennessee -147 W +100
Green Bay -145 L -145
Miami -143 W +100
NY Jets -132 W +100
San Fran -425 L -425
Seattle -2800 W +100
Bears -128 W +100

10-5 -$126

Broncos

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Yeah, it's similar to a "can't lose" horse. Every once in awhile you'll see some person (or perhaps syndicate) make a huge show bet on some dominating animal. The thinking is that he could never lose, and even if he does, he can still finish second or third and we cash our five cents on every buck. But there's a reason they actually race them. And one fourth place finish is devastating. It's just not a philosophy for long term success.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

2013: 24-8 (+$897)

Philadelphia -168 L -168
New Orleans -345 W +100
NY Giants -118 L
Dallas -162 W +100
Detroit -115 W +100
Minnesota -270 L -270
New England -320 W +100
Baltimore -120 W +100
Tennessee -147 W +100
Green Bay -145 L -145
Miami -143 W +100
NY Jets -132 W +100
San Fran -425 L -425
Seattle -2800 W +100
Bears -128 W +100
Broncos -1750 W +100

week 3: 11-5 -$26
2013: 35-13 (+$871)

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

this doesnt look too bad so far. Waiting for the one week for the wheels to come flying off.

_________________

Going 11-5 and losing money is brutal though.

_________________

2013: 35-13 (+$871)

San Fran -200 W (+100)
Pittsburgh -155 L (-155)
Baltimore -200 L (-200)
Cincinnati -185 L (-185)
Indianapolis -355 W (+100)
Seattle -113 W (+100)
Tampa Bay -133 L (-133)
Detroit -147 W (+100)
Kansas City -170 W (+100)
Tennessee -172 W (+100)
Dallas -107 L (-107)
Washington -175 W (+100)
Denver -455 W (+100)
Atlanta -154 L (-154)
New Orleans -330 W (+100)

week 4: 9-6 (-$34)
2013: 44-19 (+$837)

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

2013: 44-19 (+$837)

week 5
Cleveland -205 W +100
Kansas City -140 W +100
Miami -140 L -140
St. Louis -560 W +100
New England -137 L -137
Seattle -148 L -148
Green Bay -450 W +100
Bears -115 L -115
Philadelphia -118 W +100
Carolina -154 L -154
San Diego -245 L -245
Denver -325 W +100
San Francisco -205 W +100
Atlanta

7-6 (-$239)

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

2013: 44-19 (+$837)

week 5
Cleveland -205 W +100
Kansas City -140 W +100
Miami -140 L -140
St. Louis -560 W +100
New England -137 L -137
Seattle -148 L -148
Green Bay -450 W +100
Bears -115 L -115
Philadelphia -118 W +100
Carolina -154 L -154
San Diego -245 L -245
Denver -325 W +100
San Francisco -205 W +100
Atlanta -525 L -525

week 5: 7-7 (-$764)
2013: 51-26 (+$73)

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

And there it is. Thanks for keeping this up Chus. It is cool to see how it has progressed. One bad Monday night game from a shitty injured team and you're fucked.

_________________

66% and your head is barely above water. Last week was rough, but I believe there will be one in December that will be a complete disaster.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Not in modern NFL

In the 80's and 90's, yes. Now not so much.

Look at next week


NEXT GAME
8:25
PM
ET
SEAHAWKSATCARDINALS




ET
BUCCANEERSATFALCONS

1:00
PM
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BEARSATREDSKINS

1:00
PM
ET
COWBOYSATEAGLES

1:00
PM
ET
PATRIOTSATJETS

1:00
PM
ET
BILLSATDOLPHINS

1:00
PM
ET
CHARGERSATJAGUARS

1:00
PM
ET
RAMSATPANTHERS

1:00
PM
ET
BENGALSATLIONS

4:05
PM
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49ERSATTITANS

4:25
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TEXANSATCHIEFS

4:25
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RAVENSATSTEELERS

4:25
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BROWNSATPACKERS

8:30
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BRONCOSATCOLTS

MONDAY, OCTOBER 21ST
8:40
PM
ET
VIKINGSATGIANTS






Which is a lock? Seattle? on the road? Pats on road? Chargers at Jax?


The locks arent there anymore (Other than Jax on the road vs a good team which is like 4 or 5 times a year)