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PostPosted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:55 am 
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Jose Quintana was 9-7, had a 3.51 ERA with almost a full 3:1 K/BB ratio on a team that won 63 games in 2013.

Why would that be an indictment of fWAR?

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Last edited by Frank Coztansa on Mon Oct 21, 2013 10:30 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 10:09 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:

Why would that be an indictment of fWAR?

Because it fits his narrative.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 11:30 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Jose Quintana was 9-7, had a 3.51 ERA with almost a full 3:1 K/BB ratio on a team that won 63 games in 2013.

Why would that be an indictment of fWAR?


and his development over three years has been pretty astounding. I am not at the point with him where I'd say "this is who he is" and who he is right now is pretty good.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 3:59 pm 
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Apologist wrote:
WAR is a counting stat, much like your precious W.


Not really. Someone is making subjective decisions on how to weight each component.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:00 pm 
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Apologist wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:

Why would that be an indictment of fWAR?

Because it fits his narrative.


Because he was nowhere close to as good as Madison Bumgarner was in 2013.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:02 pm 
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I would suggest that if Quintana was making ~15 starts in ATT Park, his numbers wouldn't be all that different than Bumgarner's. And conversely, Bumgarner would likely be less effective if his home park was at 35th and Shields.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:06 pm 
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Apologist wrote:
I would suggest that if Quintana was making ~15 starts in ATT Park, his numbers wouldn't be all that different than Bumgarner's. And conversely, Bumgarner would likely be less effective if his home park was at 35th and Shields.


Perhaps. But that's pure speculation. In any case, if the dollars were equal I doubt you could find one person in baseball who would take Quintana over Bumgarner.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:19 pm 
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Hyperbole aside, I think you are correct in that assesment, but that's the beauty of a Quintana. If Moneyball has instructed us on anything, it's the value in retaining undervalued assets. If Quintana nets you ~90% of Bumgarner's value through his arb years, at possibly 50%-75% of his marquee value, you have a nice chip. Which Hahn does. My greater point is that Quintana is part of the solution going forward... he has surprised me, like found money. More worrisome is probably the Danks contract, but it's not the type of elephant that's going to cripple the franchise.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:45 pm 
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Apologist wrote:
Hyperbole aside, I think you are correct in that assesment, but that's the beauty of a Quintana. If Moneyball has instructed us on anything, it's the value in retaining undervalued assets. If Quintana nets you ~90% of Bumgarner's value through his arb years, at possibly 50%-75% of his marquee value, you have a nice chip. Which Hahn does. My greater point is that Quintana is part of the solution going forward... he has surprised me, like found money. More worrisome is probably the Danks contract, but it's not the type of elephant that's going to cripple the franchise.


Yeah, it doesn't always go your way all the time. You sign Danks and it looks like a bad deal, but then you come up with Quintana and it kind of evens it out. My biggest issue with Danks is that they gave him what could have been Buehrle's money. And I understand why they did. He was younger and ostensibly had better "stuff". He seemed to be the one to keep.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 11:42 am 
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Contract details for Abreu:

Abreu will receive a $10M signing bonus and be paid $7M in 2014 and 2015, $10M in 2016, $10.5M in 2017, $11.5M in 2018 and $12M in 2019.

Interesting. Hahn used the savings from the trades of Peavy and Rios to give Abreu a big signing bonus and a lower annual salary for the first couple years. This will free up some payroll space to sign another free agent or two.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 1:37 pm 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
Contract details for Abreu:

Abreu will receive a $10M signing bonus and be paid $7M in 2014 and 2015, $10M in 2016, $10.5M in 2017, $11.5M in 2018 and $12M in 2019.

Interesting. Hahn used the savings from the trades of Peavy and Rios to give Abreu a big signing bonus and a lower annual salary for the first couple years. This will free up some payroll space to sign another free agent or two.



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PostPosted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 3:08 pm 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
Contract details for Abreu:

Abreu will receive a $10M signing bonus and be paid $7M in 2014 and 2015, $10M in 2016, $10.5M in 2017, $11.5M in 2018 and $12M in 2019.

Interesting. Hahn used the savings from the trades of Peavy and Rios to give Abreu a big signing bonus and a lower annual salary for the first couple years. This will free up some payroll space to sign another free agent or two.


I assume the signing bonus money gets assigned to this year's budget. If so, this contract ends up being minimal in terms of negative impact on next year's budget and should leave room to sign FA talent.

I don't think JR would agree with you on the move being smooth. His perspective is that payment delayed is payment denied. Signing bonuses are not his preferred method.

One note not included is that I think there is an opt out clause in 2018. It is a little irrelevant as he would still be under Sox control, but the value of the contract goes up if he is good.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 3:27 pm 
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I'm not sure if the money saved automatically gets assigned to next years payroll budget. They could allocate it where they want. Some will go to next years draft and international spending pool. Here they decided to pay a big bonus up front and put a lower number on the payroll. I think there is a reason why they structured the contract that way.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2013 3:12 pm 
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Blue Jays are interested in Beckham and perhaps Santiago or Danks.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2013 3:14 pm 
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Hawkeye Vince wrote:
Blue Jays are interested in Beckham and perhaps Santiago or Danks.


I love the Jays year in and year out plan of just throwing shit against the wall and hoping it sticks. I mean they dont really have any other choice in that division.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2013 3:17 pm 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:
Hawkeye Vince wrote:
Blue Jays are interested in Beckham and perhaps Santiago or Danks.


I love the Jays year in and year out plan of just throwing shit against the wall and hoping it sticks. I mean they dont really have any other choice in that division.

With that lineup, they have a chance but they have to pitch much better. RA Dickey didn't exactly light up the AL.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2013 7:03 pm 
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Hawkeye Vince wrote:
Blue Jays are interested in Beckham and perhaps Santiago or Danks.



Do it!

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2013 9:43 pm 
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Why the fuck would anyone want Danks??

Hahn must be offering to eat 70% of that deal.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 6:00 am 
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Wouldn't that be ironic to have both Danks AND Buerhle on a staff together again considering the Sox dumped Mark to pay Danks.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 6:23 am 
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cpguy wrote:
Why the fuck would anyone want Danks??

Hahn must be offering to eat 70% of that deal.



I think you're badly underestimating the market rate for a middle of the rotation starter. I just think he's the logical guy for the Sox to get rid of if they can. There are plenty of teams that don't have the surplus of left-handed starters the Sox do.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:23 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
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I think Pauly is going to retire. Getting rid of De Aza, Alexei and Keppinger are musts. They need to sign the Cuban 1st baseman, Granderson to play right, a left handed hitting back up catcher and a loogy.


What makes you think the Cuban first baseman is that good? He's going to break the bank. I can't see him being better than Cespedes who is really not anything special. Granderson is going to be a player in decline and taking him away from his friendly wall in Yankee Stadium isn't going to help his power numbers. Terrible idea. Who do you think the starting catcher is?


Ah, finally getting to brass tacks...

This White Sox team is going to be pretty hobbled for the foreseeable future.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:25 am 
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SomeGuy wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
I think Pauly is going to retire. Getting rid of De Aza, Alexei and Keppinger are musts. They need to sign the Cuban 1st baseman, Granderson to play right, a left handed hitting back up catcher and a loogy.


What makes you think the Cuban first baseman is that good? He's going to break the bank. I can't see him being better than Cespedes who is really not anything special. Granderson is going to be a player in decline and taking him away from his friendly wall in Yankee Stadium isn't going to help his power numbers. Terrible idea. Who do you think the starting catcher is?


Ah, finally getting to brass tacks...

This White Sox team is going to be pretty hobbled for the foreseeable future.


I'm guardedly optimistic regarding Abreu. The Sox had to make a radical move to upgrade the offense. I hope this one works out and that they aren't done yet.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:28 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
SomeGuy wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
I think Pauly is going to retire. Getting rid of De Aza, Alexei and Keppinger are musts. They need to sign the Cuban 1st baseman, Granderson to play right, a left handed hitting back up catcher and a loogy.


What makes you think the Cuban first baseman is that good? He's going to break the bank. I can't see him being better than Cespedes who is really not anything special. Granderson is going to be a player in decline and taking him away from his friendly wall in Yankee Stadium isn't going to help his power numbers. Terrible idea. Who do you think the starting catcher is?


Ah, finally getting to brass tacks...

This White Sox team is going to be pretty hobbled for the foreseeable future.


I'm guardedly optimistic regarding Abreu. The Sox had to make a radical move to upgrade the offense. I hope this one works out and that they aren't done yet.


Well, I'm hopeful too, they need to either shit or get off the pot. The last vestiges of 2005 and the moves made after a gone or close to it. I am looking forward to this offseason.

I plan on going to more games this year so we'll have plenty of time to chat about it.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:35 am 
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SomeGuy wrote:

Well, I'm hopeful too, they need to either shit or get off the pot. The last vestiges of 2005 and the moves made after a gone or close to it. I am looking forward to this offseason.

I plan on going to more games this year so we'll have plenty of time to chat about it.


You always know where to find me out there.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:37 am 
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unlike the Cubs,the Sox have a shit minor league system to throw guys into a trade or bring up. So enjoy another season in the shitter.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 10:19 am 
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The Chicago White Sox have named Todd Steverson as the team's new hitting coach.

Steverson, 41, has spent the last 10 seasons in the Oakland Athletics organization, including 2012-13 as the organization's minor-league roving hitting instructor. He was the Athletics' first-base coach from 2009-10.

Also today, the White Sox have exercised the 2014 club option on the contract of right-handed pitcher Matt Lindstrom.

Lindstrom, 33, went 2-4 with a 3.12 ERA (21 ER/60.2 IP), 20 holds and 46 strikeouts over 76 relief appearances with the White Sox in 2013 after signing as a free agent on January 25. He ranked among the American League relief leaders in opponent GIDP (2nd,15) and appearances (3rd).
Lindstrom sucked.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 10:32 am 
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This was a no brainer. Lindstrom was good before he got overused because of the Jesse Crain injury. The Sox should have a good bullpen again next year. They need to sign a late inning left hander. The 7th spot could go to a long-man like Andre Rienzo or 2nd left hander like Santos Rodriguez or Donnie Veal.

Reed
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Rienzo or Rodriguez


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 10:38 am 
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That pen looks terrible to me, but I have faith in Coop. :lol: Unless their lineup gets better, it doesn't matter what the bullpen does.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 10:45 am 
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Good bullpen "again"? What the hell were you watching, Keyser? The Sox pen was brutal last year. Guys like Troncoso, Veal, Purcey, have no business being anything other than mop up guys if they are pitching at the big league level. The bullpen walked way way way too many guys last year.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 10:51 am 
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The bullpen was very good at the top and losing Crain was a big blow. Troncoso and Purcey have been released and will be replaced by Petricka and Webb who are far better pitchers. They should be good 1-7 next year but the key is signing a lefty to take Thornton's role.


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