FWIW, from
http://www.danonymousracing.com/free-br ... ovember-1/Quote:
Friday, November 1, 2013
Breeder’s Cup Marathon
Race 6: 6-9-4-8
While the Marathon has produced more long shot winners and bigger bombs than just about any Breeder’s Cup race, this year’s edition feels like it’s one of the easiest races to handicap on the two-day card. Our top selection is #6 Indian Jones. Six year old gelding has run extremely well in four races going back to June, which includes a near score in a G3 at Parx, where he nearly nailed former Marathon winner, Eldaafer. He’s also a sharp horse who can be taken way off the pace or sit just behind it. For the purposes of this race, which appears loaded with a surprising number of need-the-lead types, Indian Jones’ tactical ability should serve him very well. Only drawback is that he didn’t run well in his two tries at Santa Anita but those races were way back over the poly.
We’re going to slip #9 Pool Play into the two-hole. He’s easily the most accomplished horse in the field and he’ll be a really nice price, considering how off his form is. However, deep closers like this have owned this race over the years and you can bet that Pool Play will be passing horses late. How many horses will he pass? That remains to be seen but for the price we’ll get, I’m willing to take a chance. Besides, he’d probably make for the best storyline if he won.
You’ll also want to include #4 Ever Rider in your exotics. Argentinian is a bit of a wildcard but has a lot of appeal, having won the same G2 prep that last year’s Marathon winner, Caleidiscopio, came out of. Like to see Stevens, who could’ve presumably rode #1 Old Time Hockey, jump on Ever Rider for this race. Concern with this horse is that he appears to consistently run on or near the lead and if he does that here, he’ll be pressed from the break by at least two others and perhaps three, if #7 London Bridge gets sent.
Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf
Race 7: 9-13-3-5-7
This is another race which has historically produced some nice priced winners. I can’t imagine the favorite in here, whomever that might be, going off at any less than 4-1. So, this race really comes down to projecting pace and trying to figure out which of the Euros will factor. While the reports on #4 Outstrip have been overwhelmingly positive, I can’t say that I would use him with great confidence. His G2 score two-back came in a field of 4. This deep closer, along with #2 Giovanni Baldini will have plenty of traffic to weave through and will likely be dodging fading horses on or near the rail. I think #9 Wilshire Boulevard will be better positioned to make a move late. He’s got tactical speed and could rate off the pace in the second tier of horses, get first run and pull away late. This horse is always moving late and should enjoy the extra furlong. He finished just a few off a runaway winner who finished in a pretty fast time for 7f at Longchamp. Prior to that, he’d scored a G3 win and a missed a G2 win by a neck. A lot of positive signs, not to mention you get Aiden O’Brien with one of his top guys, Buick, aboard.
I initially had #13 Bashart as the pick in this race but the 13 post scared me away. Still, I think this horse will be the controlling speed – it’s just that he might have to work a little harder than backers might want him to. Would definitely use this horse on all tickets, given his extraordinary effort in the Bourbon, where he took up repeatedly while running up on heels and then turned into the stretch 4-wide, yielding only to #11 Poker Player late. I don’t think the deep closers will enjoy the way the pace sets up here, which is why I tossed Poker Player. Last note on Bashart is that he held off several well regarded horses two-back in the With Anticipation at Saratoga, including Base Case Scenario who broke his maiden just a month earlier by defeating, among others, likely race favorite, #5 Bobby’s Kitten. That horse needs to be respected. His last out BSF is easily tops in this field and could dictate the pace if Bashart has any trouble clearing from the wide post.
Price play in here is #3 Got Shades (20-1 ML). He’s the only horse with two wins at this distance and he’s been training very well over this surface. He might be overlooked because he finished behind top contender, #7 Aotearoa, but he also encountered a bit of trouble while trying to make a move late near the rail. He ran a much better race than what’s reflected on paper, plus he gets Stevens up for the first time. I won’t call that a jock upgrade because I love Joe Talamo but there aren’t many jockeys who’ve been hotter on the California circuit than Stevens.
Lastly, as for Aoteara – he’s totally playable and will likely be a major overlay. I know that the Zuma Beach isn’t the Shadwell Mile but for this horse to be listed at 12-1 on the ML off of that impressive win seems to be a bit unfair. Horse should be well positioned mid-pack and make one big run. I’ve learned over the years that Nakatani only strikes when you’ve overlooked the horse that he’s on. If you have the means, spread to Aoteara in the multis and definitely use him on all exotic tickets.
Breeder’s Cup Dirt Mile
Race 8: 10-4-2-11-8
If you followed our analysis through Triple Crown season, then you know that I haven’t always been the biggest fan of #10 Verrazano. But here’s the deal: Look at his pp’s, there’s no mystery about who this horse is, what he likes and what he doesn’t like. Anything beyond a mile and 1/8th is out of his reach – point blank. A mile an 1/8th or less? He’s 6 for 6 in those races! I would call him a stone cold lock in this spot, except there’s so much speed to his inside that he’ll have to avoid getting caught wide. I’ve got the utmost confidence in Johnny V to make a prudent decision on where to place him right after the horses break. And, the reality is, he’s won while traveling 2 to 3 wide throughout the first half of a race and I don’t see why he wouldn’t be able to here.
I’m also liking the signs I see from #4 Brujo de Olleros. Honestly, my only concern with this horse is that he seems to be developing into something of a wise guy horse. Heck, he’s even installed as one of the morning line favorites at 5-1! Really? That aside, his form is improving, he posted a career best performance last out in the Kelso, finishing just behind Graydar, who set an uncontested pace that was at least a second slower than what we’ll se unfold in this race. The projected pace should totally play in Brujo’s hands, or feet, as a horse who generally settles wells and stalks.
Another horse who should factor late from just off of the pace is #2 Golden Ticket. He cuts back off of flat-looking effort in a G1 ver this course last out. But I like the fact that he’s won in his only try at this distance and retains the services of Rosario. Again, this is another one who figures to benefit from the hot pace and, amazingly, he’s done some of his best running in his biggest races, including the Travers last year and the Stephen Foster back in June.
#11 Pants on Fire has run consecutive bang-up races, the last of which was a career-best figure in a G3 score at Churchill. We know he loves this mile distance (4-1-1 in 7 starts) but has to avoid mixing it up too much early. If he can settle and rate in the second pack without getting caught wide, he could score a nice slice.
Value plays in here are #8 Holy Lute (20-1 ML) and #9 Centralintelligence (30-1 ML). Holy Lute fired a spectacular :59 flat bullet over this track 10 says ago and comes in off of a game G2 try, in which he had lots of excuses. Lightly raced horse by Midnight Lute has a ton of upside and Smith is up first time. Central Intelligence has a G1 score (Hollywood in June) but still has a lot to prove over conventional dirt. He’s also eligible to improve off of a bumpy trip last out and I’d use him on deeper tickets.
As for #12 Goldencents, the combination of the stretch out against his toughest company to date and the wide post make it really hard t use Goldencents. There’s no denying he loves Santa Anita but you’ve got to draw the line on your ticket somewhere and, for me, it’s with Goldencents.
Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Race 9: 1-4-6-13-14
Several of these fillies had posted huge races in their young careers and appear capable of winning this race. Ultimately, I went with #1 Nesso in the top spot for one reason – she’s the lone speed in the race. She’s 15-1 on the morning line and will likely go off at much higher odds. Barring something totally unexpected, she’ll likely be gunned from the gate and should be able to sit a comfortable pace on the lead. Two-back, in a stakes race over this turf course, she fired the first quarter in :22 flat, the half in :45/4 and three quarters in 1:10/2. Those are splits that no one in this field has even come close to and if Martin Garcia can slow her down just a bit, she should have plenty in reserve to hold off the chasers – especially considering that some of her most accomplished foes draw extremely wide in here, including #14 My Conquetadory. That’s a horse who I respect, especially after what she overcame to win the G1 Alcibiades last out at Keeneland but it’s really asking a lot of her to repeat that performance, which is what she’ll have to do to win this race from the 14 post.
In the place spot, I love #4 Kitten Kaboodle at an incredible 20-1 on the ML, in spite of the fact that she took the G3 Jessamine at Keeneland last out by nearly 5 lengths! You’ve got to like the fact that she’s shown tactical speed in all of her starts and was only compromised by super slow fractions that were set by an uncontested pacesetter in her two losses. Oh, and where did she finish in those races? Second. Also has excuses two-back when she looked like she was going to face-plant coming out of the gate.
The Euros do scare in this spot but they all appear to be mid-pack to deep closers and I’m not sure any of them can win from that far off given the likely pace setup in this race. The best of the lot appears to be #6 Vorda. If you haven’t watched the replays of her races, check them out. She comes out of several sprints but has the look of a horse who can run all day and I think she should enjoy the stretch out to a mile here. Her only loss was to undefeated phenom, No Nay Never, two races back. Vorda then bounced back to capture a G1 last out at Newmarket. Very scary looking horse but, again, not sure there will be enough pace to close into for her. The same goes for #8 Chrisellium, an improving horse who will offer a much more potential value that Vorda. I included Chrisellium underneath and she’s definitely worth inclusion in your exotics and multis, if you can afford it.
Lastly, don’t overlook #13 Sky Painter. The post draw isn’t ideal but she seems to be evolving into an explosive late runner, so I wouldn’t expect to see her mixing it up early anyway. Her closing kick in the Ms. Grillo at Belmont is something to see, if you haven’t already. To say that she was flying late would be an understatement… and the race was run in a very fast final time of 1:41/3 going a mile and a 16th. Sky Painter lost by a nose hair to #12 Testa Rossi, who is another horse who merits fringe consideration.
Breeder’s Cup Distaff
Race 10: 3-6-4
There might be as much hype, if not more, for this race than any other on the two-day Breeder’s Cup program. It would be too easy to simply choose #6 Princess of Sylmar on the basis of her four consecutive G1′s, three of them at this distance, including the defeat of #4 Royal Delta last out in the Beldame. But at some point, these efforts have to take a little something out of the Princess. Much like her win in the Oaks, she benefitted from a solid pace up front last out and from the fact that Royal Delta never got to sit her preferred trip on the lead. That said, I don’t see Royal Delta getting things all her way on the front either here in the Distaff, with #5 Beholder likely to set the pace. Before I get to my top selection, let me just say that I do respect Beholder, after all she’s won five of six over this surface and ran her heart out in the Oaks, when she yielded to POS late. However, I don’t think she’s going to be able to set as soft a pace as she needs to in order to win, with Royal Delta likely to press her all the way around. I also don’t think that a mile and 1/8th distance benefits her in any way – even in her wins at a mile and 1/16th, she’s had horses gaining on her late (although she has been eased down in several of those).
That brings us to our top selection, #3 Close Hatches. I’ve been leery of jumping on this bandwagon for a while but it just seems like she’s sitting on a huge effort and should have just enough pace to run into here. While her Oaks was a bit of a disaster, she had excuses in that race and, prior to that, she crushed a field which included POS in her only other try at the distance. I think she can run all day and should be loaded second off the layoff for Mott. Only question for me is how she takes to this surface first time out. Fairly confident in this selection but wouldn’t leave POS or RD off your multis.
Saturday, November 2, 2013
Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies
Race 4: 7-9-2-10
#7 Untapable might be my BEST BET on Breeder’s Cup weekend and if we can stay around the 5-1 listed on the ML, this could be a spot to make a big play. While this group of fillies prepped over various surfaces and it’s often hard to compare splits from one track to another or from one day to another, it’s quite obvious that #7 Tapable did some of the best running late in her Pocahontas win than any of these others have. Rosie might generally side with an Asmussen mount in a situation like this anyone but consider it another positive sign that she jumps off of a really nice looking horse in #4 Secret Compass to ride Untapable. She’s all but guaranteed a strong pace to run into thanks to #10 She’s A Tiger, who has set some ridiculous early splits and has proven game, even in defeat. While I think She’s A Tiger is going to have a lot on her plate trying to clear and then dispatching of the Florida speedster, #8 Scandalous Act, it was tough for me to toss She’s A Tiger completely because she ran such a huge race over this surface last out.
That brings us to the likely favorite, #9 Sweet Reason. She’s obviously a horse that a lot of people will be singling in multis and using on top in exotics. Wouldn’t say that she can’t win but to it might be a but misguided to automatically assume that she can get a mile and 1/16th just because she broke poorly in the Frizette. There’s no question that she ran on impressively in that one and that her Spinaway win was spectacular. I’m just not sure I want to take too short of a price on an unproven commodity over course and distance, when we already know that our top choice will make this distance at a fatter price. Also, the winner of the Frizette, #1 Artemis Agrotera just misses the cut for me. She’s definitely a nice looking horse but I don’t like the 1 post for her. She’ll be sitting right behind three other speedsters and will have to either make an early move or risk having to dart around the pacesetters when they start to drop back. Also needs to make an extra sixteenth here, which isn’t impossible. I just don’t like her in the top two spots.
Lastly, give #2 Rosalind some consideration. She might get a bit overlooked (realistically could see this horse at 15-1) but in her sole start over conventional dirt at the distance, she ran extremely well. In fact, she was the only one making up ground late in the Pocahontas on our top choice, Untapable.
Breeder’s Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Race 5: 2-5-3-9-1
There could be a lot of money to be made in this race. #1 Dank will get a lot of play because of her explosive move late in the Beverly D and a 107 BSF that just jumps off of the page. But if you take a closer look at the race, she wasn’t the only one who moved late. The race set up nicely for both her and #6 Marketing Mix, who could finish no better than fourth. Not discounted her late run as much as I’m projecting she won’t have the same pace setup, she’ll likely be pinned down on the rail and she’s going to have to work for it against a much better group of horses than what she faced last out. Rather than taking 3-1 or less on that one, we’ll look elsewhere.
If you like Dank, you’ve got to like #2 Romantica. The Euro-shipper’s credentials overseas are just as good, if not better, and we’re going to get a much nicer price. I like that she was fairly close to the pace when she took the G1 Jean Romanet because we know that Lezcano is going to try and crawl with #7 Laughing. So, I think Romantica should be well positioned to get the jump on the others, plus she’s 3 for 4 at mile and 1/4 distance! No stamina questions here. If she gets a clean trip and finds an opening, she’s gone.
I also think #5 Lady of Shamrock is phenomenal play at 20-1 on the ML. She’ll likely go off at 30-1 or higher but this girl can make the distance, has won more than half of her seven starts at Santa Anita and had trip trouble in her last two tries routing on this surface (steadying in each race). In the last race, she ran the final half and quarter in ridiculously fast time and figures to have her flying late with #3 Tiz Flirtatious. As for Tiz Flirtatious, she’s all class and always runs an honest race. Her biggest challenge will be the same that a lot of these face, the pace will likely be extremely slow. I don’t think Laughing will be able to hold a placing because she’s tired going shorter (while crawling) and if the pace is any faster than what she pulled off in the Diana and Flower Bowl, she’ll be passed late. I just don’t know that Tiz Flirtatious will be positioned close enough to actually rally for the win. Needs to be included on all tickets though and find it encouraging that Leparoux jumps off of Kitten’s Dumpling to retain this mount.
Lastly, I’ll use #9 Quschi on larger tickets. Looks like she can run all day and hasn’t really run a poor race since shipping over. She’s won at a mile and a half so I think the distance suits and we’re going to get another huge price. Love Motion in spots like these. It’s a bit of a hunch play and a win might be out of the question but getting into the trifecta seems possible.
Breeder’s Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Race 6: 8-6-2-11-7
Found this race to be one of the tougher race to handicap. It is loaded with speed but not nearly as much speed as we’ve seen in this race in past years. Looks like the fastest horse out of the gate here will be #6 Ismene. She comes off of several solid tries on turf and poly but she’s no stranger to the Santa Anita dirt. Not only has she won 2 of 3 races on the surface, speed, as usual, appears to be holding up well at Santa. If Smith can find some daylight and give this horse any sort of breather, there’s no doubt in my mind that she can hit the board at a huge price (20-1 ML) and could even win. Series of spectacular works, including the :58/4 bullet a few days ago, doesn’t hurt the case for her. That said, I think she will face just enough pressure to set it up for a horse rating midpack, like #8 Dance to Bristol. She’s an incredibly gutsy girl who hadn’t gotten much respect until the G1 score two-back. She then lost to Cluster of Stars, who ran an impossibly good race when she went fast early and still had enough to put away Dance to Bristol. Now, once again, it seems like DTB is coasting under the radar and that’s fine with me. She returns to 7f here, which is arguably her best distance. Not only has she won consecutive graded stakes races at the distance, she also posted her highest BSF (107) at the distance, earlier this year at Charles Town – yes, Charles Town! She’s also got a ton of tactical speed and can sit close to the pace if she needs to or drop several lengths back if it does happen to get too hot up front.
#2 Book Review is another steady horse who loves this distance and has the added benefit of having run and won over this track. She nearly nailed DTB in the Ballerina and had the added excuse of having to rally wide in that race on a Saratoga surface that was hell on horses coming from off of the pace. This one is another potential win candidate and I’d have a hard time leaving off her off the multis.
Get the feeling, the defending champ, #11 Groupie Doll just isn’t the same horse as she was last year but you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who can toss her without apprehension. Perhaps she just didn’t have the same punch over the poly last out… maybe she’ll find a way to settle in a nice spot from way out in the 11 post… perhaps, maybe… or maybe not. There are enough questions going in that I wouldn’t take Groupie Doll at too short of a price and we know that the price will be short based on her credentials.
Lastly, #7 Summer Applause is an interesting wild card play in here. Brown cuts this router back to 7f and the question is, why? Well perhaps because he knows something that we don’t. He hits at a staggering 31% route to sprint and while this isn’t a maiden claiming race at Belmont, good trainers know how to pick these spots. This one has got plenty of class and I’d expect her to make a late move with plenty in the tank. Wouldn’t leave her off your tickets.
Breeder’s Cup Turf Sprint
Race 7: 6-12-5-14-3
Per usual, a ton of speed signed up for this race, perhaps none faster than #7 Tightend Touchdown. He should get position on the speedsters outside of him and have the lead past the first quarter. I don’t think he has the ability to hold it in this company, while stretching out to 6 1/2 furlongs for the first time. There will probably be a point in deep stretch when #12 Mizdirection grabs the lead but we’re going to try to beat the defending champ (who is also 6 for 6 and 5 for 5 over course and distance, respectively) and score a nicer price with #6 Boat Trip. This horse closed from the clouds in the Eddie D, making up about 5 lengths in the final 50 yards. Had he made his move just a second earlier, he would’ve won the race by a clear length. In an event, he has shown a preference for this distance, which he broke his maiden at (over this course) back in March. Has all the looks of an improving horse and should once again find plenty of pace to close into. Even if he doesn’t win, he’s a sure bet to make a significant move late, at likely odds of 10-1 or better. Therefore, this horse is a worth a strong WPS play.
Another horse flying late in the Eddie D was #5 Caracortado. Not sure what happened but he seemed to hesitate for just a moment and ended up getting passed by both Boat Trip and #14 Unbridled’s Note. Still, this horse has all the class in the world and is worth giving another shot, especially with Stevens jumping aboard for the first time.
Breeder’s Cup Juvenile
Race 8: 6-5-1-3-12
Have a hard time believing the speed is going to hold up in this race, especially the wide speed of #13 Havana. He may go off at 3-1 or less and he boasts the best race on paper but if you watch the replay of the Champagne, he was swishing his tail every time he felt the whip, while slowing down in the last quarter of a mile. Now, he’ll need to make an extra 1/16th in a larger field with several horses who could make him work for it.
Regardless of how much pace there is, #6 Tap It Rich just jumps off the page to me as a potential standout. He broke poorly/ran greenly in his debut and still won by nearly five lengths without even trying. Looks like he can run all day and if Smith can get him to settle, he should be able to pull away late.
#5 Bond Holder is another one who will be tough to leave off your tickets.His form is rock solid and he’s been closing very strongly from way out of it. He’s been working extremely well too. However, he’ll have a lot more traffic to weave through here, otherwise I might’ve placed him in the top spot.
Price play in here will be #1 Smarty’s Echo (20-1 ML). Don’t love the rail draw but this horse showed his grit in the Breeder’s Futurity at Keeneland, where he encountered a ton of trip trouble and ran wide almost the whole way around. If the pace is brisk enough, have a feeling this horse might fly late for a big slice.
#3 Mexikoma rounds out our super. The horse might’ve just freaked against a weak field at Delaware when he crushed six maidens by nearly 15-lengths but the performance was dominating enough that we’d kick ourselves if we didn’t use him and he shows up with another bug effort here. I like that he also settled well in that race, rated wide early on and then just turned it on when asked. He’ll need to do the same here and if he does there’s no reason to think he won’t be a factor.
Lastly, I’d include #12 Diamond Bachelor. He tries the dirt after some really sharp looking efforts on the turf. Aoteara slip through and got by late last out but I like how he continued battling all the way to the wire. By the time this race goes off, we should have some added perspective on that race because Aoteara and Got Shades will have already run in the Juvenile Turf (Friday, Race 7).
On larger tickets, I’d also recommend using #14 Strong Mandate. Not sure what was wrong with him in the Champagne but he looked uncomfortable from the break and might’ve simply bounced off of his monster win in the Hopeful. That race might’ve been 7f on an off track but I’m not ready to count this horse out, especially with Rosario taking the mount. Note the strong work 10 days after the Champagne.
Breeder’s Cup Turf
Race 9: 7-1-4-10-3
The Euros have traditionally done very well in this race and #7 The Fugue looks like a beast, shipping in off of an easy win in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes. Filly has been racing with the boys over in Europe and, watching the replays, has hardly been asked in the last few. She had some trip trouble in the BC F&M Turf last year but if she can get out in the clear, expect her to cruise by these late.
Going to go with a bomb in the place spot in #1 Vagabond Shoes (20-1 ML). He’s yet to find the winner’s circle in 3 starts at Santa Anita but really looks to be in improving form and seemed to have a lot left after the mile and 1/4 Turf Classic last out. Not sure he would’ve caught Indy Point with another quarter mile but he would’ve made it very close. Doesn’t appear to be too much pace in this race, so I think the 1 hole could tactically work to his advantage if Espinoza keeps him close to the lead and gets the jump on some of these late.
Speaking of speed, it remains to be seen what approach Smith takes with the winner of this race last year, #4 Little Mike. He, of course, has the ability to go straight to the lead and could try to walk the dog. However, his best efforts have been run from slightly off of the pace. In any scenario, can’t envision him being too far off the lead and given his class, would be ridiculous to leave him off your exotics and multis.
Lots of respect for #10 Big Blue Kitten. This horse is always flying late and has even managed to overcome some rough trips/traffic up the rail to win a couple of nice G1′s. However, unlike the horses listed in the place and show spots, this is his first try over the Santa lawn and I am really concerned about the kind of traffic he’ll have to weave through, in addition to the lack of speed which should make for further congestion. He’s a fighter though and is definitely usable on larger tickets.
Lastly, listed #3 Twilight Eclipse at a nice price (20-1 ML). He seems to always be there late but isn’t ever able to seal the deal. Might’ve peaked at this distance back at Gulfstream in March, a race which likely took a lot out of him, given the 3-month break that ensued. Still, seems capable, especially if he can sit close. He’s got 2 wins and another placing in 4 attempts at a mile and 1/2, plus Leparoux aboard first time. Should give you some bang for your buck.
Honorable mentions: #8 Point of Entry — a warrior who might burn us if he’s at his best off of surgery this summer. Can’t use with confidence jumping into a mile and 1/2 test off of that kind of issue, although he is 4 for 5 at this distance. Also, #11 Magician — Euro who can disrupt a lot of tickets with a late run. Appears to be a bit of a stalker and has a G1 at the Curragh to his name. He’s kind of flown under the radar, perhaps because he’s a smallish horse and because The Fugue has overshadowed him. His last race was a mess but if you can overlook that one, he might be worth some exotics consideration.
Breeder’s Cup Sprint
Race 10: 4-1-7-9-12-8
Breeder’s Cup is only once a year and if we’re ever going to take a major shot, let this be it. #4 Majestic Stride might appear to be in way over his head coming out of a $57K Alw race and perhaps he doesn’t really belong with some of these proven sprinters. That’s why he’s 20-1 on the morning line and why he may even go off at even longer odds. But watch the replays of this horse’s races. He can flat run and the splits he’s posted put him right in the middle of contention for this race. If the candyman can get him to rate just a little, at least for the first quarter, I have no doubt that he’ll fire on this surface, which he’s 1 for 1 on. He also boasts 3 wins and another placing from 4 starts at the distance. Posted a :46/3 (best of 65!) bullet two weeks ago. Reason to believe he’s sitting on a monster effort, positioned in an ideal post too.
#1 Justin Phillip will make a very strong move late and could very well win this race. Fairly confident that he’ll turn the tables on #7 Private Zone, who is sure to face more pace pressure than he got when they let him run uncontested in the Vosburgh. Private Zone worked an ungodly :45/4 a few weeks ago, as well. Can’t toss this guy but gotta believe he’ll be softened up by multiple speedsters and I expect both Majestic Strike and Justin Phillip to edge past him late.
Going to go with #12 Laugh Track to round out the super at giant odds (20-1 ML). Wide post shouldn’t totally kill this late runner and I’d expect to see him surfacing on the scene late. Note that Smith takes the mount after the breakdown of the horse who would’ve probably been the favorite here, Points Offthebench. This is just one of those situations in horse racing where you look for a potential storyline and if Laugh Track were to win or grab a large slice, it would definitely make for a nice story.
Breeder’s Cup Mile
Race 11: 8-1-6-7-10
Another highly anticipated race, the Mile sets up as a speedfest with #3 Obviously and #4 Silver Maxx likely to duel each other into submission. Mitchell and Talamo experimented with rating Obviously off of the pacesetter early in the City of Hope and it didn’t work out well. Can’t imagine them not gunning it from the gate here. The wild card is #6 Bright Thought. This is a horse who won a trio of consecutive races, banging heads on the front and pulling away late – most recently winning by 3+ lengths in G2 company. While those races are incredibly impressive, they clearly took something out of him because he’s been away since that G2 score in March! You’ve got to believe the connections know something about this horse’s condition and abilities that we don’t know. He’s 3 for 3 at this distance and I also like that Leparoux takes this mount, as a turf specialist who is known for restraining a lot of his horses. The question is, does this horse want to be restrained? It’ll be interesting to see what kind of ride he gets and how it changes the pace dynamics of this race.
In any event, it’s hard to imagine a situation where Silver Maxx gets to coast on the type of lead that enabled him to hold off #8 Wise Dan last out. Any way you might want to spin it, the reigning Horse of the Year is the best horse in this field and stands to benefit most from an early pace that will likely be fast.
Two price plays in here will be #1 No Jet Lag and #7 He Be Fire and Ice. They both flew past Obviously late in the City of Hope and barring something unexpected, it seems likely that they’ll be making late charges. Note the final time in that last race was very fast and both of these horses are in improving form, having done some of their best running over course and distance.
Lastly, I know I’ll be kicking myself for not listing #10 Za Approval higher. This is just a very honest horse who has taken several graded stakes at this distance and seems pretty content finishing second in G1′s, most recently right behind Wise Dan in the Woodbine Mile. This closer should also benefit from the pace up front. Don’t think he has what will be required to win but will be tough to leave out of the exotics.
As for likely second-choice, #5 Olympic Glory, he’s shown an explosive kick in notching one G1 and finishing second in two others at this distance. However, I don’t like the fact that he ran a really demanding race less than two weeks ago, tries a new surface with turns and simply won’t be worth playing at 4-1 or less. Use on deep tickets but I have a hard time envisioning him finishing in the top two spots.
Breeder’s Cup Classic
Race 12: 6-12-4-10-9
There are so many ways to go in the race and it really does shape up to be one of the more interesting Classic fields ever assembled. There are so many potential stories that could emerge. Imagine if #2 Paynter were to win this race just a few months after returning to racing, overcoming a deadly illness and then winning the Breeder’s Cup? No matter who you’re rooting for, Paynter winning would absolutely be an absolutely amazing outcome. There are so many other questions in here: Can a 3-year-old win it? Are the Euros, headlined by #5 Declaration of War, for real? Can #7 Fort Larned make it two Classics in a row? And lastly, can #9 Game on Dude once and for all silence his doubters or will he be forced out of his comfort zone and have to rate off a fast pace set by #4 Moreno, Fort Larned and, potentially, #3 Planteur?
We can all project answers to those questions but, as we all know, much of it will be determined by the way the horses break, how clean their trips are and how severe any potential biases (like the current route speed bias) might be. I actually think the bias is significant enough to toss the handful of horses in here who generally close from way off the pace. The bias also impacted my decision to place #4 Moreno pretty high. It would be hard to envision him winning on the lead but he used a speed favoring track at Saratoga on Travers day to his advantage, nearly winning at 31-1! Only Will Take Charge passed him in that race but certainly the competition will be stiffer here.
We’re going to go with #6 Mucho Macho Man as our top selection in the classic. If there’s one thing that’s clear about this horse, it’s that he really likes Santa Anita. His two highest BSF’s and arguably his two best races have come over this surface. We all know that he almost won this race last year and the case can be made that he’s coming into this year’s classic in form that not only looks solid but also projects to improve. The cherry on top is having Stevens aboard. The year has really belonged to him and Joel Rosario (who is aboard our second choice, #12 Flat Out) and if you listen to Stevens speak you know how much a win here would mean to him and, therefore, how ready he’ll be.
#12 Flat Out is a horse, who I thought, was coasting under the radar but then suddenly this week, there’s been a bunch of buzz about how well he’s working up to this race. There’s so much to like about him, especially the fact that he has the right kind of speed for a race like this. He’ll be sitting just off of them and if they go as fast as it appears they will, he’ll certainly have a shot if good enough. He has a couple of wins and a few other placings in a handful of tries at this distance. He’s also had excuses in his recent misses. With a clean trip, he’s dangerous and I’d be hesitant to leave him off of your multis.
Lastly, we can’t wrap up all of this analysis without some discussion about Game on Dude. I absolutely love the horse and barring Princess of Sylmar winning the Distaff by 5+ lengths, GOD is my pick for horse of the year. He’s 5-0 on the year, including 3 G1′s and a combined win margin of more than 25 lengths. I don’t care who he was running against or not running against – that’s pretty impressive. But there’s simply no escaping the fact that he not only prefers running on the lead but that he’s struggled most in big races like this when he’s been denied the lead. That said, I simply don’t see any way GOD is allowed to clear and sit an uncontested lead. He could, and should, stick around for a small slice but I wouldn’t at all be surprised if he finishes off the board.
Here’s to hoping that you enjoyed this write-up and that it helps you in some form this weekend. Best of luck and thank you all for your continued support!
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in my opinion having this at the same venue 2 years in a row is a farce!
