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 Post subject: Re: Game 9/16
PostPosted: Sun Nov 10, 2013 9:41 pm 
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Mr. Reason wrote:
Cutler playing was the first of Trestman's mistakes today. He made many. My hope is he will learn from this and not make the same type of mistakes again. He strikes me as the sort who will use this as a teachable moment. My ultimate hope is, upper mgmt uses it as a justification for not wasting anymore money on Cutler. Those millions can be better spent shoring up the many holes on the defensive side if the ball.


Exactly right.

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 Post subject: Re: Game 9/16
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:52 am 
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Douchebag wrote:
Why did Detroit not go for 2 on their last possession? If they go up 9, game is over. If they don't convert, they're still up 7. Even though they won the game, that is terrible coaching.


Huh? No professional coach would go for two in that situation. The success rate on two point conversions is less than 50%. Make your opponent go for two. If the Lions went for two and failed, the Bears just need a kick to tie it.

The terrible coaching was not using any of their three timeouts at the end of the first half. The Bears had first and goal from the seven yard line, 1:12 left in the half, and two timeouts remaining. If the Bears were to not get into the end zone, it wouldn't have been a clock issue. Schwartz should have used the timeouts, and they may have had a shot to get points.

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 Post subject: Re: Game 9/16
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:12 am 
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Chus wrote:
Douchebag wrote:
Why did Detroit not go for 2 on their last possession? If they go up 9, game is over. If they don't convert, they're still up 7. Even though they won the game, that is terrible coaching.


Huh? No professional coach would go for two in that situation. The success rate on two point conversions is less than 50%. Make your opponent go for two. If the Lions went for two and failed, the Bears just need a kick to tie it.


My gut feeling at the time was the same as Douchebag's, but after looking at the latest "Dynamic Model" for determining when to go for 2, it appears Schwarz made the right call. Based on a lead of 7 with less than 6:00 left, the Lions should have gone for 2 only if their success rate was over 58% or so. As Chus said, though, most teams are under 50%.

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 Post subject: Re: Game 9/16
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:17 am 
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Jaw Breaker wrote:
Chus wrote:
Douchebag wrote:
Why did Detroit not go for 2 on their last possession? If they go up 9, game is over. If they don't convert, they're still up 7. Even though they won the game, that is terrible coaching.


Huh? No professional coach would go for two in that situation. The success rate on two point conversions is less than 50%. Make your opponent go for two. If the Lions went for two and failed, the Bears just need a kick to tie it.


My gut feeling at the time was the same as Douchebag's, but after looking at the latest "Dynamic Model" for determining when to go for 2, it appears Schwarz made the right call. Based on a lead of 7 with less than 6:00 left, the Lions should have gone for 2 only if their success rate was over 58% or so. As Chus said, though, most teams are under 50%.

Converting the 2 ends the game right there. Worst case scenario in that situation is that you fail to convert, are still up 7, and then you go to OT if the Bears come back and score. Worst case scenario by kicking the extra point is that you also go to OT. Yes, they ended up winning the game, but they could have had the dagger right there, and the Bears' final drive would not have mattered.

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 Post subject: Re: Game 9/16
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:21 am 
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Douchebag wrote:
Converting the 2 ends the game right there. Worst case scenario in that situation is that you fail to convert, are still up 7, and then you go to OT if the Bears come back and score. Worst case scenario by kicking the extra point is that you also go to OT. Yes, they ended up winning the game, but they could have had the dagger right there, and the Bears' final drive would not have mattered.
One thing doesn't make sense here. If your stance is that going for two is the right move because it wins the game, then if you miss, and are up 7, then the opponent also should go for two to win the game when they score.

Therefore, by going for two, you are opening up the only possibility of losing.

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 Post subject: Re: Game 9/16
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:26 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Douchebag wrote:
Converting the 2 ends the game right there. Worst case scenario in that situation is that you fail to convert, are still up 7, and then you go to OT if the Bears come back and score. Worst case scenario by kicking the extra point is that you also go to OT. Yes, they ended up winning the game, but they could have had the dagger right there, and the Bears' final drive would not have mattered.
One thing doesn't make sense here. If your stance is that going for two is the right move because it wins the game, then if you miss, and are up 7, then the opponent also should go for two to win the game when they score.

Therefore, by going for two, you are opening up the only possibility of losing.

I think a team should always go for 2 in every situation, and I'm also in the camp of never punting unless you are inside your own 20, or if it's 4th and a mile.

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 Post subject: Re: Game 9/16
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:36 am 
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I think Trestman was trying to give Jay Cutler a "hero" moment. A chance to define who he is as a player. An opportunity to overcome adversity and show exactly what kind of player he is. A chance to be "The Man".

We all know how that turned out...

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 Post subject: Re: Game 9/16
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:42 am 
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Quote:
I think Trestman was trying to give Jay Cutler a "hero" moment. A chance to define who he is as a player. An opportunity to overcome adversity and show exactly what kind of player he is.


If Cutler had connected with a streaking Marshall on that pass near the end, he may have succeeded. IF...

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 Post subject: Re: Game 9/16
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 11:02 am 
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Douchebag wrote:
I think a team should always go for 2 in every situation, and I'm also in the camp of never punting unless you are inside your own 20, or if it's 4th and a mile.
You'd score less points going for 2 every time if the numbers are correct.

People do punt too often on 4th and less than 2 but you need to punt on 4th and 8 almost always unless you are desperate.

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 Post subject: Re: Game 9/16
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 1:27 pm 
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It's just a damn shame they lost that one. Cuz that would have put them in a great spot for the division and a home playoff game. Now they have to fight for a wild card.


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