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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:16 am 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
The argument was that he is who he is and you can't expect a guy to get better at this point in his career.

Yes and that is valid. None of the guys you listed changed drastically. They were all awesome and got a little awesomer.


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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:16 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
This is an open invitation to anyone. Predict what Jay Cutler will do next year. Yards, touchdowns, interceptions, records, injuries, playoff performances, Super Bowl victories. Will he outperform Stafford? Will he outperform Romo? Will he outperform Ryan?


Here's my invitation to you or anyone. Tell me what he needs to do next year for you or anyone to approve of this signing and I'll tell you if I think he will do it.

I predict I think the Bears have a better chance at success in the next 3 years with Jay Cutler at QB than any FA that they could sign this offseason or any rookie they draft.

It is impossible to say if this is correct or not so prediction on stats are meaningless.

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:17 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Now here we go again putting Cutler in the same conversation as Brees, Brady, and Manning but if I say he isn't anything close to them and never will be I'm just a hater.


I love Cutler and I don't think he is in that grouping. He's not in their league.


Nobody thinks that at this time.

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:18 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
The argument was that he is who he is and you can't expect a guy to get better at this point in his career.
Tell us what we should expect for Cutler next year.


Predictions are a waste of everyone's time. But I hope his QBR and QB rating go up, as they did this year.


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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:19 am 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
This is an open invitation to anyone. Predict what Jay Cutler will do next year. Yards, touchdowns, interceptions, records, injuries, playoff performances, Super Bowl victories. Will he outperform Stafford? Will he outperform Romo? Will he outperform Ryan?


Here's my invitation to you or anyone. Tell me what he needs to do next year for you or anyone to approve of this signing and I'll tell you if I think he will do it.

I predict I think the Bears have a better chance at success in the next 3 years with Jay Cutler at QB than any FA that they could sign this offseason or any rookie they draft.

It is impossible to say if this is correct or not so prediction on stats are meaningless.

How about he gives us 3 300 yard games? 30 touchdowns? I'd set that as a bare minimum.

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:19 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
The argument was that he is who he is and you can't expect a guy to get better at this point in his career.

Yes and that is valid. None of the guys you listed changed drastically. They were all awesome and got a little awesomer.


They were all very good and became Hall of Famers.

The changes were more drastic than you might think. Manning bested his career best QB rating by 22%.

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:20 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Now here we go again putting Cutler in the same conversation as Brees, Brady, and Manning but if I say he isn't anything close to them and never will be I'm just a hater.


I love Cutler and I don't think he is in that grouping. He's not in their league.
So why did Dr. K bring them up?

Also, you guys seem to think it was the right move to pay him similarly to them.

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:21 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
The argument was that he is who he is and you can't expect a guy to get better at this point in his career.
Tell us what we should expect for Cutler next year.


Predictions are a waste of everyone's time.

What about Nate Silver?


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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:21 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Now here we go again putting Cutler in the same conversation as Brees, Brady, and Manning but if I say he isn't anything close to them and never will be I'm just a hater.


I love Cutler and I don't think he is in that grouping. He's not in their league.
So why did Dr. K bring them up?

Also, you guys seem to think it was the right move to pay him similarly to them.


If there was no salary cap, the other guys would be making a lot more money. I don't think Joe Johnson is as good as Lebron James.


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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:22 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Now here we go again putting Cutler in the same conversation as Brees, Brady, and Manning but if I say he isn't anything close to them and never will be I'm just a hater.


I love Cutler and I don't think he is in that grouping. He's not in their league.
So why did Dr. K bring them up?

Also, you guys seem to think it was the right move to pay him similarly to them.


I already explained why I brought them up.

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:22 am 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I predict I think the Bears have a better chance at success in the next 3 years with Jay Cutler at QB than any FA that they could sign this offseason or any rookie they draft.


That may well be. I'm sure that was the Bears' thinking. But that isn't exactly "wanting" a guy. It's making the best of a difficult situation. I just don't think it was the best decision when you had the franchise tag available and didn't need to tie up your money. Cutler probably wasn't going to turn down your cash in another year and that gave you time to see what was what. If the idea is that they are paying a guy not to pout, is that really the guy you want as your quarterback?

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:23 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
The argument was that he is who he is and you can't expect a guy to get better at this point in his career.
Tell us what we should expect for Cutler next year.


Predictions are a waste of everyone's time.

What about Nate Silver?


:lol: :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:23 am 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Here's my invitation to you or anyone. Tell me what he needs to do next year for you or anyone to approve of this signing and I'll tell you if I think he will do it.
Outperform 2 of these 3 players: Stafford, Romo, Ryan. Throw at least 30 touchdowns with a td/int ratio of 2 to 1. Throw for over 4,000 yards. Lead the team to a winning record. Stay healthy enough to do so.

You know, be a poor mans Philip Rivers.

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:24 am 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Now here we go again putting Cutler in the same conversation as Brees, Brady, and Manning but if I say he isn't anything close to them and never will be I'm just a hater.


I love Cutler and I don't think he is in that grouping. He's not in their league.
So why did Dr. K bring them up?

Also, you guys seem to think it was the right move to pay him similarly to them.


I already explained why I brought them up.
Except you are now saying that they aren't relevant to Jay Cutler since Cutler isn't anything close to them.

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:24 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
If Jay Cutler performs the next three seasons exactly at the level he has the last three seasons, is this a good deal?


No. As I said when the Bears signed Peppers...signing 1 player to a big money contract helps the team less than spreading that money around to fill more positional needs. You can find QB's who do what Jay does for a hell of a lot less money that the Bears gave Jay. Tier 3 QB's don't get the contract that Jay got.

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:25 am 
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Were just repeating ourselves now.


No more posts in this thread til week one of next year.

Thank you in advance


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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:25 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I predict I think the Bears have a better chance at success in the next 3 years with Jay Cutler at QB than any FA that they could sign this offseason or any rookie they draft.


That may well be. I'm sure that was the Bears' thinking. But that isn't exactly "wanting" a guy. It's making the best of a difficult situation. I just don't think it was the best decision when you had the franchise tag available and didn't need to tie up your money. Cutler probably wasn't going to turn down your cash in another year and that gave you time to see what was what. If the idea is that they are paying a guy not to pout, is that really the guy you want as your quarterback?


I think the idea is if you know you want that guy for the next 3 years, then why not structure a deal to cover you for that time that is favorable for the team in the long-term.

I don't see why this is a difficult concept to grasp. They want him for the next 3 years. I don't think they look at it as a difficult situation at all.

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:27 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:

I already explained why I brought them up.
Except you are now saying that they aren't relevant to Jay Cutler since Cutler isn't anything close to them.


I said nothing like that.

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:29 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Here's my invitation to you or anyone. Tell me what he needs to do next year for you or anyone to approve of this signing and I'll tell you if I think he will do it.
Outperform 2 of these 3 players: Stafford, Romo, Ryan. Throw at least 30 touchdowns with a td/int ratio of 2 to 1. Throw for over 4,000 yards. Lead the team to a winning record. Stay healthy enough to do so.

You know, be a poor mans Philip Rivers.


I don't believe you.

If he did that, you would still not be in favor of this contract. What if he did all that and they missed the playoffs at 10-6? There will always be some other factor unless he wins a Super Bowl next year.

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:33 am 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Here's my invitation to you or anyone. Tell me what he needs to do next year for you or anyone to approve of this signing and I'll tell you if I think he will do it.
Outperform 2 of these 3 players: Stafford, Romo, Ryan. Throw at least 30 touchdowns with a td/int ratio of 2 to 1. Throw for over 4,000 yards. Lead the team to a winning record. Stay healthy enough to do so.

You know, be a poor mans Philip Rivers.


I don't believe you.

If he did that, you would still not be in favor of this contract. What if he did all that and they missed the playoffs at 10-6? There will always be some other factor unless he wins a Super Bowl next year.
Are you going to say if you think he will do it?

I set that bar to what I would consider to be "near elite". I don't see how I could really complain if he did that. That's a pretty good season especially if he outperforms two of those three guys.

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:34 am 
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If you project his numbers this year over 16 games, he would have been at 3840, 27 and 17, fwiw.


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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:37 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
If you project his numbers this year over 16 games, he would have been at 3840, 27 and 17, fwiw.
Should be easy then for him to do that next year right? He should clear it with room to spare.

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:37 am 
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I can't predict that he'll stay healthy.

But the Bears threw 579 times this year. If Cutler had played the entire year he'd have 4300 yards and 31 TDs this year.

So, he wouldn't even really have to be better to reach your goals, just be healthy.

I'd expect him to be at 4500 yards and 35+ TDs. I'd be happy with that.

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:39 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
If you project his numbers this year over 16 games, he would have been at 3840, 27 and 17, fwiw.
Should be easy then for him to do that next year right? He should clear it with room to spare.


I'm definitely hoping the trend continues, and he improves again next year.


Another thing that may be better to look at is offensive points per game. Bears were 2nd there this year. If they can stay top 5 I'll be thrilled.


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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:41 am 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I'd expect him to be at 4500 yards and 35+ TDs. I'd be happy with that.
Awesome. I'm on record saying this won't happen. I'd be happy with it too.

Now, I think the fact that Cutler can't stay healthy is a problem with this contract too but I understand if he misses half the season he won't get to that number.

Thank you for finally taking a stand instead of others who just snipe about "Cutler hate" because people don't think he'll perform but won't say what they expect of him.

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:42 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
If you project his numbers this year over 16 games, he would have been at 3840, 27 and 17, fwiw.
Should be easy then for him to do that next year right? He should clear it with room to spare.


I'm definitely hoping the trend continues, and he improves again next year.


Another thing that may be better to look at is offensive points per game. Bears were 2nd there this year. If they can stay top 5 I'll be thrilled.
Is that a yes?

What about what Dr. K said? You think he'll reach 4,500 yards and 35+ touchdowns?

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:43 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I'd expect him to be at 4500 yards and 35+ TDs. I'd be happy with that.
Awesome. I'm on record saying this won't happen. I'd be happy with it too.

Now, I think the fact that Cutler can't stay healthy is a problem with this contract too but I understand if he misses half the season he won't get to that number.

Thank you for finally taking a stand instead of others who just snipe about "Cutler hate" because people don't think he'll perform but won't say what they expect of him.


I don't think he will throw for 4500 and 35. Too high, IMO. Beyond thrilled if that happens though.


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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:45 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I'd expect him to be at 4500 yards and 35+ TDs. I'd be happy with that.
Awesome. I'm on record saying this won't happen. I'd be happy with it too.

Now, I think the fact that Cutler can't stay healthy is a problem with this contract too but I understand if he misses half the season he won't get to that number.

Thank you for finally taking a stand instead of others who just snipe about "Cutler hate" because people don't think he'll perform but won't say what they expect of him.


I don't think he will throw for 4500 and 35. Too high, IMO. Beyond thrilled if that happens though.
What about 4,000 yards, 30+ touchdowns, and a winning record, and being better than 2 of those 3? You think he will do that?

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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:49 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I'd expect him to be at 4500 yards and 35+ TDs. I'd be happy with that.
Awesome. I'm on record saying this won't happen. I'd be happy with it too.

Now, I think the fact that Cutler can't stay healthy is a problem with this contract too but I understand if he misses half the season he won't get to that number.

Thank you for finally taking a stand instead of others who just snipe about "Cutler hate" because people don't think he'll perform but won't say what they expect of him.


I don't think he will throw for 4500 and 35. Too high, IMO. Beyond thrilled if that happens though.
What about 4,000 yards, 30+ touchdowns, and a winning record, and being better than 2 of those 3? You think he will do that?


I'm less concerned with hitting yard/TD stats than the offense scoring points. It's hard for me to even make an educated prediction on the other 3 guys. I think Ryan will throw for way more than Cutler. I think Cutler could beat Romo and Stafford, but I wouldn't be upset if he played well and didn't.


I know you're looking for something to hang me by. I will say, I feel confident he will best his QBR and QB rating from this year.


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 Post subject: Re: 7 yr deal for Cutler
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:51 am 
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Typical year on this deal: 4000+ yards, 25-30 TDs, <15 Total turnovers, wins 10+ games, beats the Packers at least once, no 3+ INT games, and plays in at least 90% of the games.

That would earn him most of his money. Playoff wins would earn the rest.


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