30 TD's a bare minimum? He's never had 30 in a season yet in his career. He only had 19, in each of the past 2 seasons. He's not like Manning or Brady (each with 50 or more in a season). In the year with his high total of 27 TD's he also had 26 INT's. He may have a stronger arm than either Manning or Brady, but he makes too many mistakes that wind up as interceptions, to get high TD totals. 19/12 is a horrible TD/INT ratio. If Jay had a 2/1 TD to INT ratio (which he has NEVER achieved) it would be a great improvement. forget the 55/10 manning amassed this season, or the 49/10 he had in 2004. Forget the 50/8 that Brady accumulated in 2007. The 25/11 Brady had this past season (for him an off year) would be the kind of target to aim for. It's not the # of TD's alone that should be focused on. It's the TD's VS INT's . If he can minimize the mistakes and have a good ratio, it would be a major improvement. I don't expect it.

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No, I simply want you to stand by your thoughts. For too many years, people like you have stood behind Cutler and thought it was "hating" to think he wouldn't perform. Then, the cycle repeats again.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

FWIW, I would expect that the way you think we support Cutler too much is similar to how much we think you hate him.

For the record, I'd be happy with 4,000/30. But, if healthy, I'd hope he'd improve some over this year's averages.

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You know me like that.

Cutler and McCown combined for 4450 passing yards this year. Cutler had 19 TDs and 12 picks, McCown has 13 TD's and 1 pick. I'm pretty sure Cutler would have hit 4000 and 30 TDs if he didn't get hurt.

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That isn't really the point. It just gets tiring to be called a Cutler hater by those who refuse to put expectations on him. If I hate Jay Cutler at least I'm pretty open on my expectations for him. Too many on this board seem to accept whatever Cutler does as good enough.

That's why I respect Dr. K for finally putting some actual expectations down. Then, if he fails next year, we'll see if he's still quite as happy with him as he seems to be today.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

4450 yards, 32 TD, 13 INT from the quarterback position, but its wrong to point the finger at the defense for the Bears missing the playoffs this season.

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You're correct, but your example of Brady isn't that great. He didn't really become "great" (more than 30 TD's better than 2/1 td to int ratio) until he was 30, which was his 8th year. He won titles; that's why Brady was great. 2007 and after have all been better than his first 7 years... until this year of course. Manning is in another world.

I guess I set the bar too low.

Still going to be tough to outperform two of these three: Romo, Stafford, and Ryan though.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

None of whom are playing in the postseason.

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We ALL want the same thing at the end of the day for crissake

No, it's fair to point to the defense. The problem here is that the backup QB played better than the starter, yet people are arguing that the starter is worth $54M guaranteed based on the offense's production.

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You can't see me because of internet.

The landowner effectively owns part shares in millions of part-time slaves called, "taxpayers." -Roy L
A Personal Relationship with Jesus?

No, I wanted a shitload of money allocated to an obviously-horrible defense. Management decided $22M should go to Cutty.

Edit: I can see it now. Defense will be Cutler's excuse going forward, never minding the fact that Cutler's contract is what hampers the defense (of course Cutler will still fail to stand out, like always).

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You can't see me because of internet.

The landowner effectively owns part shares in millions of part-time slaves called, "taxpayers." -Roy L
A Personal Relationship with Jesus?

You want the Bears to win the Super Bowl

Exactly. I'd love for Cutler to throw for 4000+ yards and 28+ TDs. But if that doesn't happen, and the Bears go 11-5 and make it to the Super Bowl, that doesn't make Cutler's deal a bad one.

Before Rick jumps all over me, I'll say Cutler goes for 3800 yards, 28 TDs, 12 INT in 2014. That, with a healthy Matt Forte and even just an average defense should be able at least get a wild card birth.

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With the defense as poor as it was, it put extra pressure on Cutler to make plays. Cutler&Pressure=disaster. If the defense is bad, you can look for him to throw 20 or more interceptions again and of course his excuse makers will blame it on the defense. A smarter QB takes what the defense gives, avoids mistakes and executes the offense. Jay is more apt to force big plays and wind up with big mistakes.

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Have you seen his fourth quarter stats and comeback stats?

An intercption in the 1st quarter, 2nd quarter or 3rd quarter is still an interception. His mistakes early in games are often a big reason why a comeback is attempted. A 19/12 TD/INT ratio sucks.

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Sure does, and it's better than the TD/INT ratio for Matt Stafford and Matt Ryan. So they must suck too, right?

That's the amusing thing. Those three players are hated on for lack of postseason success/appearances even with gaudy regular season numbers. Cutler doesn't even have the gaudy regular season numbers to stand on.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Spiegel just reported that the cap hits are -

Year 1 - $11MM
Year 2 - $15MM
Year 3 - $16MM

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The numbers he was claiming are strikingly similar to the speculation I found on twitter yesterday:



Edit: I think those are the exact numbers he claimed, fwiw.

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The landowner effectively owns part shares in millions of part-time slaves called, "taxpayers." -Roy L
A Personal Relationship with Jesus?

If you look at the numbers for this year alone, but that is not the case over their careers. Cutler (as I pointed out in an earlier post) has never even had a 2/1 TD/INT ratio in a single season, nor has he ever had more than 27 TD's in a season and he only did that once and had 26 INT's to go along with them. Ryan had TD/INT ratios of 28/9 in 2010, 29/12 in 2011 and 32/14 in 2012. Stafford had a ratio of 41/16 in 2011 and his off year this season resulted in a 29/19 ratio. Do you wish to compare their career ratios?

Ryan 153 TD's/ 77INT's
Stafford 109 TD's/ 73 INT's
Cutler 155 TD's/112 INT's

Cutler is inferior to Stafford in career ratio narrowly, but FAR inferior to Ryan in career ratio.

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Go Cubs!!!!

Funny how we don't know whether the cap hit this year is 11m or 22.5m. Do the Bears know?

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Even funnier that we arguing both scenarios just in case

So did Meatpants find that chart and pretend he has a source, or what?

Spiegel said it was a very reliable source.

And we already know that Matt in the Crown is the King. So, it seems legit.

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You know me like that.

I added the carrer ratios for your consideration...

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Go Cubs!!!!

Compare whatever you'd like. You didn't mention career stats, you brought up Cutler's stats from this year and said they sucked. Statistical analysis in football isn't an absolute indicator of good and bad or more importantly winning and losing. Tom Brady had 18/12 TD/INT ratio, won a super bowl and went to the pro bowl. The first 7 years of his career he never had more than 28 TDs, never had better than a 2/1 td/int ratio, only threw for 4,000 yards once, had a qb rating of greater than 87.9 only twice yet he was considered a top five qb.

The real issue with Cutler at this point in his career is injuries. If he can stay healthy, then the Bears can win with him.

You are right, I brought up his 19/12 ratio for this season initially. You then chose to compare those stats to Ryan and Stafford's stats for this past seasom, when each had poor seasons. I brought up the career numbers to show that each has superior seasons to those Jay has ever had. I'll take a Brett favre -like career that includes a 20/29 Td/INT ratio in one season, if it also has season where it's 33/7, 36/16, 39/13, 38/13 and 33/14 and 9 seasons of 30 or more TD's. Jay doesn't have exceptional seasons great/awful. He has varrying degrees of mediocrity.

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