The bubble watch on espn.com is appointment reading for me, and this latest edition didn't disappoint...

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Iowa State almost did it. With 3:08 left in their 70-64 home win over Texas Tech on Saturday, the Cyclones trailed 62-61. Save Iowa State die-hards, no one was more riveted than the Watch: After locking in Iowa State slightly early, a home loss to Texas Tech would have forced us to seriously consider removing Fred Hoiberg's team from locks, which is like our equivalent to Batman's whole "don't kill dudes" thing. It's our one rule. And the Cyclones were going to make us semi-seriously think about breaking our one rule. Fortunately, Melvin Ejim made a go-ahead bucket at 3:01, Jaye Crockett turned it over, the Red Raiders scored just one field goal in the final three minutes, and all was once again safe in Gotham City. That was too close.

If a team suffering its first bad loss of the year (well, the game at WVU was bad, but I'm just using ESPN's criteria) would remove it from lock status, you really shouldn't have had it in lock status to begin with...but alas, I'd say the win against Texas last night has to make the whole thing pretty moot at this point.

As for non-ISU bubble stuff, I find it a bit surprising that Ohio State wouldn't be in lock status yet, considering they are already at 20 wins, have some good road wins to hang their hat on, and their strength of schedule is very impressive.

There is no way Iowa State is on the bubble.....

RPI is 10
8-4 vs RPI top 50
No losses to teams RPI 100 and greater.

At this point, they are probably a 4 or 5 seed is my guess.


When I think bubble, I think Providence, Tennessee, Nebraska, Missouri.

Lunardi has them a 4...I'm getting greedy and hope they can get up to a 2 or 3 and *possibly* get a spot in Milwaukee or St. Louis in the first two rounds...wishful thinking I know...figure Michigan St/Wisconsin/Michigan will fill out Milwaukee and Kansas/Wichita St have St. Louis on lock at this point...but a guy can dream.

I think they'd have to win the Big 12 tourney to move up. Palm has them a 3 but headed to San Antonio since he has Creighton/MSU going to Milwaukee.

I'd say they have to run the table the rest of the way to even sniff Milwaukee...I think St. Louis is out of the question regardless of what they do...would take a complete meltdown by Kansas or Wichita St for that to free up.

I'm guessing they go 3-2 the rest of the regular season (4 or 5 wins possible for sure, but the road games at KSU and Baylor scare me a bit, and who knows what OkSt team shows up in Ames) and make a valiant run to the Big XII title game, where that intolerable cocksucker Bill Self wins yet another conference tournament title. I'm thinking that would get them one of the more difficult 4 seed draws.

So after all that, watch them choke against TCU tomorrow...

Paging Mr. Hawg Ass...

Arkansas [19-9 (8-7), RPI: 57, SOS: 74] Hey, look who made it back on the page! A warm and full-throated Woo Pig Sooie to the Arkansas Razorbacks, whose 71-67 overtime win at Kentucky on Thursday got them back into the bubble discussion in a major way. The win -- besides just being a huge victory in and of itself, and a regular-season sweep of the Wildcats -- will also provide a nice boost to the Razorbacks' flagging computer numbers. Or, at the very least, a counterpoint to them. With other quality wins: Home against SMU and a neutral-court victory over fellow bubbler Minnesota, Mike Anderson's team has officially made a solid case. Now they need to handle business in their last three vs. Georgia, Ole Miss, and at Alabama.

Paging Mr. Hawkeye Vince

Iowa [19-9 (8-7), RPI: 41, SOS: 53] Iowa, on the other hand, continues to stubbornly refuse lockdom, mostly because it is playing awful defense: After spending most of the season among the nation's best per-possession defensive teams, the Hawkeyes have dropped to eighth in the Big Ten in points-per-trip allowed. Three straight losses tell the tale. Last week, we were lamenting how underseeded Iowa might end up if it didn't beat Wisconsin at home. Now we're worried that the Hawkeyes could go 0-3 the rest of the way and end up 19-12 overall, 8-10 in the Big Ten, with merely OK RPI and schedule numbers and an albatross of a nonconference schedule. Suddenly, things don't feel so safe.

This blows my mind...that team has looked so good at times, but played so shitty lately.

I still don't see them going 0-3 the rest of the way.

_________________
2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

They will be in....but they are absolutely shitting all over their seed. They can't close games and really need to get their defense working again.

Welcome to Lockdom Hawkeyes!

Sometimes, the inexorable march of time really is a college basketball team's best friend. Relative to its skill and general performance on the floor, Iowa's resume -- marked as it was by a bad nonconference schedule and a whole host of close losses against top-25 RPI teams -- has always been worse than it could be. Since Feb. 8's blowout win over Michigan, Iowa beat Penn State and Purdue and lost to Wisconsin (at home), Indiana and Minnesota. All of the above may end up costing Fran McCaffery's team a much higher single-digit seed than it now seems likely to get, but it won't cost it a bid entirely.

And for Hawg Ass...well, the second to last line is particularly funny.

Arkansas [20-9 (9-7), RPI: 53, SOS: 79] The Watch is always quick to warn against reductive bubble watching. It always happens this time of year: Suddenly, teams are either in or out with one win or one loss. Suddenly, people start ignoring the relative strength of a resume built over a four-month sample size in favor of dramatic do-or-die scenarios. Most of the time, the bubble isn't that dramatic. It's almost never that simple. But there are exceptions, and Arkansas is one of them. In one fell swoop -- last week's win at Kentucky -- the previously discarded Razorbacks managed to vault over Tennessee and Missouri and a host of other teams back onto the right side of the at-large cut line. Of course, some decent all-around work (especially in nonconference play) put them in the position first. But a sweep over Kentucky, even a Kentucky team that just lost at South Carolina, is something most of the teams with Arkansas-level resumes don't have. And so here the Razorbacks are, like a phoenix rising from the ashes, only if instead of a bird, the animal in question was a feral bush pig. Majestic, isn't it?

_________________
2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

As a 6 seed and face the 3 Cyclones in the round of 32 with a Sweet 16 bid at stake - I LOVE IT!

That would be a crazy matchup...but I hope they end up on separate ends of the bracket...both teams have the talent to go a ways...

Iowa St, Ohio St, and Iowa are in, and probably early exits.

Arkansas is on the bubble.

_________________
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<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Pitino thinks Louisville is a 1 seed... ...I mean, I know that's what he's supposed to say, but I think he believes it.

If they get anything higher than a 3 today he should be doing cartwheels up and down his favorite Italian restaurant.

edit: updated thread title to encompass more than just bubble teams.

Also, Jay Bilas (who I normally like) saying there isn't a single metric that would have Wichita St. as a 1 seed...

RPI: 4 BPI: 3

I guess that Duke education isn't all it's cracked up to be.

Duke/Virginia just tipped...I'm a Duke fan but this is probably only the third game I've watched all year...interested to see if Virginia is actually as good as their ranking indicates.

How about that zero to the right of the hyphen?

_________________
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Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Yeah there is that too...but I wanted to stick to the "metrics" since that was his argument.

Coach K T'd up...for throwing a marker...apparently.

Jabari starting to take this game over...that steal, coast-to coast drive and dunk was a thing of beauty...

"They've been waiting in Charlottesville for 20...a long time...not since 1976"

Go home Dickie V, you're drunk.

I'm looking forward to seeing where the Illini will be seeded.

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http://www.nycbuckets.com/2014/03/nit-bracketology-march-15/
So I just learned 3 things...

1) Illinois is projected to be a 3 in the NIT
2) Illinois can't host the first round game

and the most shocking

3) Someone actually does projections for the NIT

Just go the JORR route and convince yourself that a NIT bid is a good ending to the year.

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

Committee chair says the field of 68 is set, as well as 3 of the 4 No. 1 seeds...

Translation: they are waiting to see what Michigan does...so if the current MSU lead holds, I'd have to think it's Villanova, no?

Unless they get crazy and decide to go with Virginia...can't see it being anyone else after that.

I would have to believe it will be Virginia.

_________________
2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

Jason Williams just said it's good to see someone respect the ACC (with regards to making Virginia a 1)

Oh that's so fucking rich...

And Jay Bilas getting back into my good graces..."Iowa State should be AT LEAST a 2"...

...oh, and they just dropped the knowledge bomb that Wichita St and Virginia combined don't have as many Top 50 RPI victories as ISU.

Fuck a 2 seed...I WANT A 1!!!

Couldn't take any more of ESPNs coverage...turn to CBS...and it's Bill Self...

...they really should warn people before they put a giant throbbing erection on the screen.