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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2014 12:05 pm 
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bigfan wrote:
Trying to finsh my day by 12 and then get in on a Pick 4, key WISE DAN in the 9th race I think it is. Gotta check the notes

In the tenth, and Wise Dan is a hell of a horse. Hard to imagine him not winning, but the 7 horse Boisterous in that race has a shot too.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2014 1:16 pm 
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Exacta box 1-4-5-10. Good luck to all

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2014 1:33 pm 
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3,6,9,10,11
4,10
1
1,4,5,6,12,16-20----->Derby
Paul Loducs Pick 4 special!

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2014 2:59 pm 
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Love Danza
4-5-19 tri

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2014 2:59 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Prior to the scratch, I was leaning toward Hoppertunity depending on the odds. With him out I'm going this way:

$200 Win 4

$1 Super Partial 4/1, 5, 10, 12, 19, 20

$2 Tri Partial 4/1, 5, 10, 12, 19, 20

$20 Ex Partial 4/5, 12, 20


I went with these bets since I don’t know shit about horses. Also had a couple more my wife picked. Thanks JORR.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2014 4:24 pm 
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spmack wrote:
Peoria Matt wrote:
Olczyk said this morning he likes the 1 horse. And a 1-2 horse combo.

I liked Vicar's in Trouble originally too, but that 1 post means that more than likely he is going to get pinched. The only way Vicar would win is if he runs out to the lead right away and avoids the rush....even then Rosie Napravnik would probably have burned all of his energy getting him to the front.

I might be wrong ...but the one hole has won the most Derby's

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2014 4:33 pm 
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DD $20
1
4,5,18,19,20

or it's a $150 loser day

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2014 5:01 pm 
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bigfan wrote:
DD $20
1
4,5,18,19,20

or it's a $150 loser day


?? What is this lingo

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2014 5:24 pm 
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I would go 100 on Intense Holiday. Boer's horse why not. Smaller play on Uncle Sigh to show. Would not be able to resist that.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2014 11:06 pm 
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Does this horse have a shot at the triple crown?

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Sun May 04, 2014 1:21 am 
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RFDC wrote:
Does this horse have a shot at the triple crown?


It's so hard to do, but he looked awfully good today. He'll be the heavy favorite for the Preakness. I'm sure he can be beaten, I just couldn't tell you who could do it right now. Maybe Danza, who was reasonably close at the end after being hipchecked into the rail after the break today. But who knows if he's even going to Baltimore? And the tighter turns and shorter distant seem to be to the advantage of California Chrome. Getting the mile and a half at Belmont is a real unknown, but if he gets that far, he'll probably have a short field to face.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Sun May 04, 2014 6:58 am 
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Peoria Matt wrote:
Olczyk said this morning he likes the 1 horse. And a 1-2 horse combo.

Stop it right there

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Sun May 04, 2014 7:01 am 
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RFDC wrote:
Does this horse have a shot at the triple crown?

Duh.....he's the only one that does

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Sun May 04, 2014 10:30 am 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Does this horse have a shot at the triple crown?

Duh.....he's the only one that does


:lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2014 7:36 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Does this horse have a shot at the triple crown?


It's so hard to do, but he looked awfully good today. He'll be the heavy favorite for the Preakness. I'm sure he can be beaten, I just couldn't tell you who could do it right now. Maybe Danza, who was reasonably close at the end after being hipchecked into the rail after the break today. But who knows if he's even going to Baltimore? And the tighter turns and shorter distant seem to be to the advantage of California Chrome. Getting the mile and a half at Belmont is a real unknown, but if he gets that far, he'll probably have a short field to face.


He looked good til the last 1/8 of a mile. Re-watch it JORR - that horse's strides were shortening and he was starting to run out of gas which was interesting against a soft pace and slow finishing time. I think if Untapable decided to run in the Preakness that horse might be better but in the Belmont, that Commanding Curve is a fast improving horse. That horse is nothing like Golden Soul that everyone is comparing him to -> he ran that big of a race against soft fractions, on a dry track. Golden Soul did it on a sloppy track that plenty of horses did not like.


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2014 7:43 am 
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Hawkeye Vince wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Does this horse have a shot at the triple crown?


It's so hard to do, but he looked awfully good today. He'll be the heavy favorite for the Preakness. I'm sure he can be beaten, I just couldn't tell you who could do it right now. Maybe Danza, who was reasonably close at the end after being hipchecked into the rail after the break today. But who knows if he's even going to Baltimore? And the tighter turns and shorter distant seem to be to the advantage of California Chrome. Getting the mile and a half at Belmont is a real unknown, but if he gets that far, he'll probably have a short field to face.


He looked good til the last 1/8 of a mile. Re-watch it JORR - that horse's strides were shortening and he was starting to run out of gas which was interesting against a soft pace and slow finishing time. I think if Untapable decided to run in the Preakness that horse might be better but in the Belmont, that Commanding Curve is a fast improving horse. That horse is nothing like Golden Soul that everyone is comparing him to -> he ran that big of a race against soft fractions, on a dry track. Golden Soul did it on a sloppy track that plenty of horses did not like.


You may be right about California Chrome. He's been on top of his form for awhile now. He certainly could be tailing off. And he had a dream trip in the Derby. And yeah, Commanding Curve was giant and he's still green. But I think he'll have a tougher time at Pimlico. I could easily see him winning the Belmont. And Danza is so lightly raced and got banged around and still kept coming. He may have fought off Commanding Curve for second if he had seen him sooner.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2014 7:53 am 
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I think the connections of Commanding Curve should play this one smart. The horse has one big move. The Preakness with the shorter distance and tighter curves is not a good place for him to run.

Danza with a nice trip might give some run at California Chrome. I think he should take the shot. Same for Wicked Strong who had a troubled trip from the way outside.


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2014 9:01 am 
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first communion party during the derby. I have a relative who is a great horse player. He, of course, didn't come to the party because of the derby. Instead he sends his medicated wife. I ask the Caller Bob of a wife what his picks are. She said she didn't know. I asked if she could give him a quick call or text. She said she would not. A few minutes after the race she calls him to find out he won $1,200 on an exacta. I told her I would consider the money she took from my pocket to be her gift.

I could hear her on the phone bitching at him not to spend it on the guys he was out with. I laughed knowing the guy probably won at least double the amount he was telling he won. She told me she thought he was spending too much time on horses and at OTB. I told her I didn't blame him.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 6:32 am 
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:lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 7:25 am 
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I bet 10 on Danza to win and 20 to show.

Won $28 which I told my guy to spend on himself, since he's a friend who is always generous.


The win felt good though. Danza closed hard. That was damn exciting.


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 9:39 am 
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I am becoming less and less impressed with the race run by California Chrome. He was impressive from the mile marker to the mile and eighth but slowed down considerably after that. His closing 1/4 was 26 and 1/5. The early fractions were really soft which could have led to a quicker last quarter. He had no trouble whatsoever.

Commanding Curve closed in roughly 25 against a soft pace. Any more pace on the front end, I think we are talking about a 38-1 winner. The horse with the most trouble and if he runs, my bet for the Preakness will be Wicked Strong - he had all sorts of issues leaving from the 20 hole, banged into Candy Boy then ran into more trouble yet tried his hardest until the end. An easier trip puts him right there.

By comparison:
Orb last year over a sloppy track closed in 25 and one fifth and had a troubled trip in the early going.

I'm not trying to discount the effort but thinking this horse can win the triple crown is very premature.


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 9:41 am 
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How often do horses bump?

I never usually notice that, but it happened to the horse I bet on, so I saw it. Is that a common occurance?

I mean they didnt brush up, they body checked each other


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 9:43 am 
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In the Derby, it happens all the time.

In a normal race of 6-8 horses, you might some steadying by horses with pace and cant get out and you might see a horse bump into a slowing horse, but the Derby is an all out war because you have 20 horses trying to get into the same spots and the horses are very young.


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 9:44 am 
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Hawkeye Vince wrote:
In the Derby, it happens all the time.

In a normal race of 6-8 horses, you might some steadying by horses with pace and cant get out and you might see a horse bump into a slowing horse, but the Derby is an all out war because you have 20 horses trying to get into the same spots and the horses are very young.

Thanks.


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 9:47 am 
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CCurve is not running in Preakness.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 9:48 am 
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spmack wrote:
CCurve is not running in Preakness.

Which is the right move. That horse is a one run horse who can eat up a lot of ground and run all day. The tight turns and shorter distance did not help him.


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 9:49 am 
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spmack wrote:
CCurve is not running in Preakness.


Is that for sure? How about Danza and Wicked Strong? Any news on them?

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 9:52 am 
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The rumor is all the New York based horses (Samaraat, Wicked Strong, Uncle Sigh, Commanding Curve) will not run. Danza is also goi ng back to New York so we might be lumping him into this discussion though Pletcher will want someone there.


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 9:52 am 
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http://www.westpointtb.com/news-and-blo ... ucky-derby

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Dallas Stewart and WPT president Terry Finley have been working together for over 20 years and know how special it is to have a horse like this in the barn. After careful consideration the duo has decided to point Commanding Curve for the June 7 Belmont Stakes, the final jewel of the Triple Crown.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby 2014
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 5:49 am 
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From http://www.drf.com/events/preakness-stakes

Image

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