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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 7:37 am 
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RFDC wrote:
If Rizzo was on the Sox and Abreu on the Cubs, suddenly WAR would be more important on the South Side and vice versa.
There is no way I would be making a case that a guy who has 6HR and 16RBI is doing better than a guy with 12HR and 35RBI regardless of what WAR says. Unless that slugger was far and away the worst defense player in the game, there would be no case to be made.

Rizzo is having a good year-- similar to Tiger's year in golf last year. Abreu is having a great year. (to date)

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 7:39 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
RFDC wrote:
If Rizzo was on the Sox and Abreu on the Cubs, suddenly WAR would be more important on the South Side and vice versa.
There is no way I would be making a case that a guy who has 6HR and 16RBI is doing better than a guy with 12HR and 35RBI regardless of what WAR says. Unless that slugger was far and away the worst defense player in the game, there would be no case to be made.

Rizzo is having a good year-- similar to Tiger's year in golf last year. Abreu is having a great year. (to date)

I think you're underestimating how good a .420 obp is


And seriously, the RBI thing is pretty silly. There are a myriad of stats that are much better but tell you the same thing. Even the very simple .BA with RISP


Im just saying, dont penalize a guy because the guys in front of him dont get on base.


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 7:57 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
And seriously, the RBI thing is pretty silly.
Using a stat from the triple crown is not silly.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 7:58 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
And seriously, the RBI thing is pretty silly.
Using a stat from the triple crown is not silly.

Ok, so you prefer a stat without context to one with context. Sounds good.


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:01 am 
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I think Dan actually made a good point about RBI yesterday. It doesnt truly represent how well someone is playing but it is also hard to have a lot of RBIs and still be a bum. As all of the old school/SABR debates go, the truth lies in between.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:17 am 
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Before we go nuts on the Rizzo obp, realize that Sammy Sosa hit 66 home runs, had a higher batting average, and won an MVP and Rizzo has a significantly higher obp than he did that year.

So, maybe it isn't quite as meaningful as we want it to be, unless of course Rizzo is also better than Sosa in his MVP 66 home run year.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:22 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
And seriously, the RBI thing is pretty silly.
Using a stat from the triple crown is not silly.

Ok, so you prefer a stat without context to one with context. Sounds good.
I prefer the 3rd place hitter to drive in runs and hit HRs, not just get on base. There is your context.

Its funny to see Cubs fans scrambling for one number here or there with Rizzo that is higher than Abreu. 6 years ago this wouldn't even be a discussion.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:23 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Before we go nuts on the Rizzo obp, realize that Sammy Sosa hit 66 home runs, had a higher batting average, and won an MVP and Rizzo has a significantly higher obp than he did that year.

So, maybe it isn't quite as meaningful as we want it to be, unless of course Rizzo is also better than Sosa in his MVP 66 home run year.

That's a pretty odd comparison.

Sosa obviously made up for it with the insane slugging.


No matter how you slice it, a .415 OBP is very good.


Rizzo's OPS is .914
Abreu is .920


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:25 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
And seriously, the RBI thing is pretty silly.
Using a stat from the triple crown is not silly.

Ok, so you prefer a stat without context to one with context. Sounds good.
I prefer the 3rd place hitter to drive in runs and hit HRs, not just get on base. There is your context.

Its funny to see Cubs fans scrambling for one number here or there with Rizzo that is higher than Abreu. 6 years ago this wouldn't even be a discussion.

I knew about OBP and OPS 6 years ago. Most baseball fans did.


RBI is not a good stat. That you keep clinging to it speaks to you not wanting to understand the game.


And your example of context is wrong.

Ill make it simple for you.

If a guy has had 40 people on base when he batted and drove in 20, is he better than the guy who batted with 25 people on base and drove in 17?

Of course not.


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:27 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Before we go nuts on the Rizzo obp, realize that Sammy Sosa hit 66 home runs, had a higher batting average, and won an MVP and Rizzo has a significantly higher obp than he did that year.

So, maybe it isn't quite as meaningful as we want it to be, unless of course Rizzo is also better than Sosa in his MVP 66 home run year.

That's a pretty odd comparison.

Sosa obviously made up for it with the insane slugging.
It's simply pointing out that "He has a higher obp" doesn't really tell us a whole lot. He also has a higher obp than Sammy Sosa did when he had one of the best seasons of all time.
rogers park bryan wrote:
No matter how you slice it, a .415 OBP is very good.
I don't think anyone is doubting that Rizzo is doing well too.
rogers park bryan wrote:
Rizzo's OPS is .914
Abreu is .920
This is true.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:27 am 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:
I think Dan actually made a good point about RBI yesterday. It doesnt truly represent how well someone is playing but it is also hard to have a lot of RBIs and still be a bum. As all of the old school/SABR debates go, the truth lies in between.

I dont know anyone other than Frank that would even argue that point.

Well before the SABR stuff we all understood that RBI's are largely dependant on teammates. They were showing BA with RISP in the 80's on baseball telecasts.


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:28 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
And seriously, the RBI thing is pretty silly.
Using a stat from the triple crown is not silly.

Ok, so you prefer a stat without context to one with context. Sounds good.
I prefer the 3rd place hitter to drive in runs and hit HRs, not just get on base. There is your context.

Its funny to see Cubs fans scrambling for one number here or there with Rizzo that is higher than Abreu. 6 years ago this wouldn't even be a discussion.


Who is scrambling?

Pointing out legitimate numbers is not scrambling.

Easy to say you wouldn't be on the other side if the roles were reveresed.

And pretty much everyone here agrees Abreu is having a better year, but it is not a big of a gap as some want to believe.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:28 am 
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RFDC wrote:
And pretty much everyone here agrees Abreu is having a better year, but it is not a big of a gap as some want to believe.
Not everyone...

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:29 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
RFDC wrote:
And pretty much everyone here agrees Abreu is having a better year, but it is not a big of a gap as some want to believe.
Not everyone...

Thus the phrase "pretty much"

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:29 am 
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RFDC wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
RFDC wrote:
And pretty much everyone here agrees Abreu is having a better year, but it is not a big of a gap as some want to believe.
Not everyone...

Thus the phrase "pretty much"
Pretty much...

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:33 am 
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It is possible to get an RBI without having RISP. You do realize that, correct? Abreu has at least 13 of those this season, almost more than Rizzo has total. Rizzo's OPB is so great, yet his OPS is still less than Abreu.

Didn't Bonafacio start out hitting like .450 or something? So its pretty clear Rizzo has had some guys on base in front of him. He's not up there with 2 out nobody on all the time.

Pretty much one of these guys is far superior.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:33 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Before we go nuts on the Rizzo obp, realize that Sammy Sosa hit 66 home runs, had a higher batting average, and won an MVP and Rizzo has a significantly higher obp than he did that year.

So, maybe it isn't quite as meaningful as we want it to be, unless of course Rizzo is also better than Sosa in his MVP 66 home run year.

That's a pretty odd comparison.

Sosa obviously made up for it with the insane slugging.


No matter how you slice it, a .415 OBP is very good.


Rizzo's OPS is .914
Abreu is .920


Correct. I would love for my leadoff hitter to have a .415 OBP. I'm willing to exchange OBP points for other metrics of production from 3-6.

This was nothing more than a thinly veiled "Cubs suck, Sox suck" segment from Dan. He would have derided North for doing that bit.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:34 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
It's simply pointing out that "He has a higher obp" doesn't really tell us a whole lot. He also has a higher obp than Sammy Sosa did when he had one of the best seasons of all time.

Right, but the slugging makes up for it. That's why people like OPS because it combines two very important stats. So no, Rizzo is not having a better year than Sosa's 98 (His 2001 was better, btw)

The fact that Rizzo is not better than one of the greatest seasons of all time doesnt disprove the value of obp.

rogers park bryan wrote:
No matter how you slice it, a .415 OBP is very good.
I don't think anyone is doubting that Rizzo is doing well too.[/quote]
Well, you are saying OBP isnt as important as "we want it to be".

I think its pretty important.

Boilermaker Rick wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Rizzo's OPS is .914
Abreu is .920
This is true.

That seems a lot closer than people here "want it to be"

Are you cool with OPS as a stat?


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:35 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
It is possible to get an RBI without having RISP. You do realize that, correct? Abreu has at least 13 of those this season, almost more than Rizzo has total. Rizzo's OPB is so great, yet his OPS is still less than Abreu.

Pretty much one of these guys is far superior.

BA with runners on base then Frank. The point is RBI is a terrible stat for judging an individual, especially in a small sample size.

So you dont want to be part of the conversation. You just want to run your Cubs suck Sox rule game. Cool.


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:36 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
RFDC wrote:
And pretty much everyone here agrees Abreu is having a better year, but it is not a big of a gap as some want to believe.
Not everyone...

Who are you referring to?


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:37 am 
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One guy makes outs a lot more than the other.

That same guy hits more homeruns though.

Pretty close


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:38 am 
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You are jumping to conclusions an awful lot here, RPB. Where in this thread did I say Cubs suck? Where in this thread did I say Rizzo was having a bad year or that he sucks? So RBI won't work, OPB is good, but as we've pointed out its better to have your leadoff or #2 guy with that OBP and your #3 and #4 hitters with the HRs and RBIs. I've pointed out that Rizzo has 3 more RBI's total and Abreu has just from his HRs and from runner's on first. So you fire back with "BA with runners on base then." Whats the next number you will throw out there? Batting average at night with runners on 3rd and less than 2 outs?

Maybe the solution is to bat Rizzo leadoff. Then I would agree that he is a better hitter than Adam Eaton/DeAza

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:40 am 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:
I think Dan actually made a good point about RBI yesterday. It doesnt truly represent how well someone is playing but it is also hard to have a lot of RBIs and still be a bum. As all of the old school/SABR debates go, the truth lies in between.


The thing about RBI is that someone actually drove them in. It's not theoretical. It's not assuming some different situation. Do the men have to be on for a guy to drive them in? Of course, but all middle of the order hitters have chances. Even on the worst teams.

A hitter is either scoring a run or driving one in. Anything else really doesn't mean much. Sure, theoretically a guy who walked every time he came to the plate could be seen as the best guy ever. That guy doesn't exist.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:41 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
You are jumping to conclusions an awful lot here, RPB. Where in this thread did I say Cubs suck? Where in this thread did I say Rizzo was having a bad year or that he sucks? So RBI won't work, OPB is good, but as we've pointed out its better to have your leadoff or #2 guy with that OBP and your #3 and #4 hitters with the HRs and RBIs. I've pointed out that Rizzo has 3 more RBI's total and Abreu has just from his HRs and from runner's on first. So you fire back with "BA with runners on base then." Whats the next number you will throw out there? Batting average at night with runners on 3rd and less than 2 outs?

No, Im not jumping to conclusions. You are clinging to a terrible stat. You're doing that because it supports your guy.

You easily dismiss the pitching WIN stat and look at peripherals when that fits your narrative.

RBI is a worse stat than pitching Wins.


Im not even arguing Rizzo vs Abreu. Im arguing that RBI is not a good indicator.

OPS is a good stat. Thats what I like. Are you cool with OPS?


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:44 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
I think Dan actually made a good point about RBI yesterday. It doesnt truly represent how well someone is playing but it is also hard to have a lot of RBIs and still be a bum. As all of the old school/SABR debates go, the truth lies in between.


The thing about RBI is that someone actually drove them in. It's not theoretical. It's not assuming some different situation. Do the men have to be on for a guy to drive them in? Of course, but all middle of the order hitters have chances. Even on the worst teams.

OPS is not theoretical either. Nor is BA with RISP or BA with runners on base.

And to say every middle of the order hitter "gets chances" is simplifying and misleading. Some guys get way more chances.

Luckily we dont need that stat because there are a bunch of other ones that serve the same purpose but remove the slant of dependence on other teammates.



Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
A hitter is either scoring a run or driving one in. Anything else really doesn't mean much. Sure, theoretically a guy who walked every time he came to the plate could be seen as the best guy ever. That guy doesn't exist.

A guy who walks can score a run. He can even drive one in on odd occassions.


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:44 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Im arguing that RBI is not a good indicator.


Do you agree that it isn't as simple as saying Player X hit .330, if more men had been on he would have driven in more runs?

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:46 am 
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Context. OBP is a good stat, but its better to have a guy with a high OBP hit 1 or 2 than it is for the guy hitting 3rd or 4th. In those spots I want the RBIs and HRs. That is what a 3rd place hitter does, drive in runs. Nobody talks about Babe Ruth's OBP, but everybody knows 715.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:47 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
RFDC wrote:
And pretty much everyone here agrees Abreu is having a better year, but it is not a big of a gap as some want to believe.
Not everyone...

Who are you referring to?
Obtuse rpb is here.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:48 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Im arguing that RBI is not a good indicator.


Do you agree that it isn't as simple as saying Player X hit .330, if more men had been on he would have driven in more runs?

Yes, i agree nothing is simple

But interestingly enough, Id look at the players stats in RBI situations to make that determination.


I do think a .330 hitter is probably going to hit like that regardless of situation for the most part.


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:49 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
RFDC wrote:
And pretty much everyone here agrees Abreu is having a better year, but it is not a big of a gap as some want to believe.
Not everyone...

Who are you referring to?
Obtuse rpb is here.

Not obtuse. I guess you havent read all my posts in this thread.


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