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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:49 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
A guy who walks can score a run. He can even drive one in on odd ocassions.


Sure, but if the result isn't a run scored, he may as well have made an out. Take Podsednik in 2005. Perhaps the most overrated season a player ever had. He scored about 80 runs and drove in 25. That isn't really good. He got MVP votes.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:50 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Context. OBP is a good stat, but its better to have a guy with a high OBP hit 1 or 2 than it is for the guy hitting 3rd or 4th. In those spots I want the RBIs and HRs. That is what a 3rd place hitter does, drive in runs. Nobody talks about Babe Ruth's OBP, but everybody knows 715.

And everyone knows about 300 Wins. So can I put you down on the JORR side of that debate?

Slugging percentage is probably what you should use for what youre trying to measure.


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:51 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
A guy who walks can score a run. He can even drive one in on odd ocassions.


Sure, but if the result isn't a run scored, he may as well have made an out.

Same can be said of a hit, right?


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:54 am 
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Just because there is a ton of posts in this thread and some understandably missed it. I have changed my opinion. Abreu has been better and I didnt look deep enough into the stats at first. I was wrong.

IMO, its still very close.


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:54 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
I do think a .330 hitter is probably going to hit like that regardless of situation for the most part.


There's certainly plenty of evidence to suggest that's the case, but it isn't really something that can be proven one way or another.

I know it's a small sample, but do you think Marcus Semien is somehow mentally stepping up his game with men on base? That may or may not be the case. I don't know. But I wouldn't discount the possibility. The SABR/bernstein dismissal would be to snidely say, "Oh sure, he doesn't want to get a hit when no one is on base." That type of response isn't really productive to the discussion.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:54 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
A guy who walks can score a run. He can even drive one in on odd ocassions.


Sure, but if the result isn't a run scored, he may as well have made an out.

Same can be said of a hit, right?


Yes.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:56 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
A guy who walks can score a run. He can even drive one in on odd ocassions.


Sure, but if the result isn't a run scored, he may as well have made an out.

Same can be said of a hit, right?


Yes.

Actually I disagree. Raising a pitchers pitch count (whether it ends in a hit, a walk, or an out) is valuable in today's game.


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:56 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Context. OBP is a good stat, but its better to have a guy with a high OBP hit 1 or 2 than it is for the guy hitting 3rd or 4th. In those spots I want the RBIs and HRs. That is what a 3rd place hitter does, drive in runs. Nobody talks about Babe Ruth's OBP, but everybody knows 715.

And everyone knows about 300 Wins. So can I put you down on the JORR side of that debate?


Frank doesn't like context for pitchers.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:56 am 
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OK. I'm back in the office today. What are we arguing about? What Quixotic stance has JORR taken today? :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:57 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Sure, but if the result isn't a run scored, he may as well have made an out. Take Podsednik in 2005. Perhaps the most overrated season a player ever had. He scored about 80 runs and drove in 25. That isn't really good. He got MVP votes.
80 runs in 129 games is pretty good for a leadoff guy, but yeah he was not an MVP.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:58 am 
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Hatchetman wrote:
OK. I'm back in the office today. What are we arguing about? What Quixotic stance has JORR taken today? :lol:

The value of OBP in relation to slugging. The value of OPB in general and the value of RBI as a stat.


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:59 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Actually I disagree. Raising a pitchers pitch count (whether it ends in a hit, a walk, or an out) is valuable in today's game.


It's always been valuable. I had to laugh at bernstein yesterday when he said something like "Teams have realized that the more pitches per at-bat the better it is for an offense." As if back in the dark ages of the 50s or the 70s people were too dumb to know that.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:59 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
80 runs in 129 games is pretty good for a leadoff guy.

Not really


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 9:00 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Actually I disagree. Raising a pitchers pitch count (whether it ends in a hit, a walk, or an out) is valuable in today's game.


It's always been valuable. I had to laugh at bernstein yesterday when he said something like "Teams have realized that the more pitches per at-bat the better it is for an offense." As if back in the dark ages of the 50s or the 70s people were too dumb to know that.

I know its always been valuable, but its become even more valuable with the LaRussafication of bullpens


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 9:02 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
80 runs in 129 games is pretty good for a leadoff guy.

Not really
Yes really. Over 160 games that is on pace for about 110 runs.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 9:04 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Actually I disagree. Raising a pitchers pitch count (whether it ends in a hit, a walk, or an out) is valuable in today's game.


It's always been valuable. I had to laugh at bernstein yesterday when he said something like "Teams have realized that the more pitches per at-bat the better it is for an offense." As if back in the dark ages of the 50s or the 70s people were too dumb to know that.

I know its always been valuable, but its become even more valuable with the LaRussafication of bullpens


I'm not sure that's true. In the past relievers were guys that weren't good enough to be starters. If you knocked the starter out, you got to tee off on some bum. Now you have specialty relievers that may well be nastier than the starter. The best approach may be to score enough runs to win the game, but don't score them so fast you knock out the guy you know you can hit. :lol:

Seriously, one of the biggest changes I've seen in the game is that there is no longer shame in striking out.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 9:05 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
80 runs in 129 games is pretty good for a leadoff guy.

Not really
Yes really. Over 160 games that is on pace for about 110 runs.

No, its not. It works out to 100 (did you just add 10 for good measure?) which would have been behind about 9 other leadoff hitters.


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 9:07 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Actually I disagree. Raising a pitchers pitch count (whether it ends in a hit, a walk, or an out) is valuable in today's game.


It's always been valuable. I had to laugh at bernstein yesterday when he said something like "Teams have realized that the more pitches per at-bat the better it is for an offense." As if back in the dark ages of the 50s or the 70s people were too dumb to know that.

I know its always been valuable, but its become even more valuable with the LaRussafication of bullpens


I'm not sure that's true. In the past relievers were guys that weren't good enough to be starters. If you knocked the starter out, you got to tee off on some bum. Now you have specialty relievers that may well be nastier than the starter. The best approach may be to score enough runs to win the game, but don't score them so fast you knock out the guy you know you can hit. :lol:

Seriously, one of the biggest changes I've seen in the game is that there is no longer shame in striking out.

Even with that, and I agree on how relievers have changed, I still think its always a good idea to get the starters pitch count up


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 9:14 am 
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oRAR, another nice metric:

Abreu 10
Rizzo 11

And is already documented, Rizzo still leads in OPS+.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 9:20 am 
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http://espn.go.com/mlb/homeruns/_/sort/ ... ghHomeRuns

Interesting. Both players haven't exactly murdered most of their homers.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 9:23 am 
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right now Rizzo has a tiny edge in Sabrmetric stats, but his BABIP is 40 points above career avg. while Abreu's is 20 points below league average.

In short, a tight race thus far. the BABIP numbers are kind of shaky for Rizzo.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 9:24 am 
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Bernsie's big thing yesterday which made some sense to me was the WOBP. If you can give more value to a homer or double etc than a walk or bloop single that helps me more to see a picture.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 9:28 am 
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Formula for weighted OBA:

The wOBA formula for the 2012 season was:

wOBA = (0.691×uBB + 0.722×HBP + 0.884×1B + 1.257×2B + 1.593×3B + 2.058×HR) / (AB + BB – IBB + SF + HBP)

Sooo, a single is roughly 28% more valuable than a walk (.884/.691 = 1.28)

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 9:29 am 
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Hatchetman wrote:
right now Rizzo has a tiny edge in Sabrmetric stats, but his BABIP is 40 points above career avg. while Abreu's is 20 points below league average.

In short, a tight race thus far. the BABIP numbers are kind of shaky for Rizzo.

Fly balls vs line drives.

Abreu is swinging for the fences...Rizzo is learning to hit while using shifts against him to HIS advantage.

The BABIP can be explained.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 9:33 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Abreu is swinging for the fences...Rizzo is learning to hit while using shifts against him to HIS advantage.
:lol:

There are some pretty absurd lengths that people are going to here.

Why doesn't Rizzo have a perfect BABIP then? :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 9:43 am 
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I would just once again like to thank Brick for pointing out how close Rizzo and Abreu have been stats wise, so far proving Steve Stone wrong.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 9:46 am 
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bigfan wrote:
I would just once again like to thank Brick for pointing out how close Rizzo and Abreu have been stats wise, so far proving Steve Stone wrong.
Pretty much everyone thinks that Abreu has been better.

Your Cubs fan bretheren are abandoning you. You are stuck on an island with Kirkwood and IMU and it's obvious Kirkwood is just doing a bit.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 9:46 am 
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bigfan wrote:
"Jose Abreu will be a far superior player to Anthony Rizzo in time." Steve Stone, March 26, 2014 11:23 AM WSCR
In time probably means more than 35 games, biggie.

Stone will be proven correct "in time"

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 9:47 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
bigfan wrote:
I would just once again like to thank Brick for pointing out how close Rizzo and Abreu have been stats wise, so far proving Steve Stone wrong.
Pretty much everyone thinks that Abreu has been better.

Your Cubs fan bretheren are abandoning you. You are stuck on an island with Kirkwood and IMU and it's obvious Kirkwood is just doing a bit.


I think he has been better, in terms of more of an impact, but as you noted he isnt "far superior" to rizzo at this point.

Maybe Steve Stone can go back to focusing on Edwin Jacksons contract as his new sticking point.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 9:53 am 
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bigfan wrote:
I think he has been better, in terms of more of an impact, but as you noted he isnt "far superior" to rizzo at this point.
As I said, we'll talk in a little while. Right now, Rizzo may be able to hang with Abreu.

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