There are definitely Cub fans floating around in his head.

Sad to see what has happened to such a great poster.

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

Glad to know I was once great.

Seriously, if Bryant busts out I expect suicide rates to go up in Highland Park and Lakeview.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

You're not off base JORR.

If he is a .230 guy with 15 HR a season and strikes out more than once per game played? I'd be emotionally shattered.

But, I'm pretty comfortable in being adamant that that will not happen. If any of these prospects need to pan out, it is him.

_________________
Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

He certainly looks like he can handle whatever comes his way. Maybe the TINSTAAPP philosophy is going to work well for them. I'm sure every Cub fan is ecstatic their team isn't the one with $6 million tied up in sore-armed Brady Aiken right about now.

I'm pretty sure you're a big Price fan, right? I'd be scared to death of him. I know that K/BB ratio is just absurd, but it seems like he's lost something. He isn't throwing as hard. I think Theo would be breaking one of his cardinal rules if he went after him or a guy like him. You'd definitely be paying for past performance. If I had to have Price or Arrieta going forward, I'd take Arrieta all day. And maybe without even considering the difference in the money.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I said earlier 600 homers for Bryant but I'm going to have to revise that down the longer he wastes time in AAA.

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

the lead has been buried in this thread.

Joe thinks that BP is biased towards Theo prospects.

That is worthy of the semi annual "Crazy of the Year" award.

_________________
Ба́бушка гада́ла, да на́двое сказа́ла—то ли до́ждик, то ли снег, то ли бу́дет, то ли нет.

I like Price, but I'm on record that you don't trade for him this season or this off-season. Maybe if the price (YEEEEEAAAAAAHHHHH) is reasonable next trade deadline after you see what a couple of your top prospects are doing. Maybe if Baez or Russell and Bryant are all contributing through July 2015...you trade either Baez or Russell for a guy like Price or Cueto.

But until you're fielding a 'good' team, I still horde the prospects until you know your team is in it to win it. I don't trade for Price or another ace unless he is a missing key to an already decent team.

_________________
Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

And Beane prospects. There may be some "science" behind the bias in that BP and particular organizations might be evaluating the players in similar ways.

It reminds me of a guy who used to be in my fantasy baseball league and every year after the draft he would write up a report and handicap order of the teams. Well, he always had his own team winning the championship. That used to make some guys angry. But think about it for a minute.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Here's a decent article on Baseball America and their success rates

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

I have a problem with that RPB. It goes from 1990 - 2003. I understand the guy's stated reasoning, however:

If you look at 1990-2003, and then 2004-2013, you'll see a higher success rate in recent years for top 20 prospects. By my quick calculations a few days ago when I was about to make a lengthy post about it, I had it at about 75% 'success' rate, with 33% being what I would call 'very good / franchise type players.'

I think advanced stats / metrics have improved talent evaluator's ability to more correctly measure future performance.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

It is what it is. Its just those years. Surely they can get better.

61% success for top 10 guys is not bad though.

No, you're right. Not bad. I just think it is a little better than 61.1%. Though I think they label players as being 'superior' a little quicker than I would.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

Those numbers seem commonsensical to me. I'd buy those. For clarification, "success" is defined as average MLB performance. I don't think this is what "we" here are imagining for Bryant, Baez, Russell, etc. If Bryant becomes an average right fielder, that would be pretty disappointing IMO.

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

Well you do have him hitting 600 homeruns.

If he hits 480 you'll be disappointed

What do you think those guys get paid?

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

5K over replacement analyst

well, that would make him the next adam dunn. that's kind of borderline. kinda fun, but not as exciting as you had hoped.

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

People used to say the same thing about ND recruits

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

This is the argument my Cubs fan buddy had with Theo at Wood's event. Theo kept saying the numbers show that it's much more difficult to draft a successful pitcher than a position player, basically espousing TINSTAAPP. But my friend said, "Yeah, but you're defining Gordon Beckham as being a 'success'. I don't want Gordon Beckham."

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

better answer would have been 350K

Seriously though, what do these humps get paid. I image the guy who owns the business does ok but not enough to be rich. I would bet the scouts make nothing.

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Scouts do make nothing. I have no idea how much writers make.

Is a guy like Beckham considered a success in that graphic RPB posted? If that's the case 61% is not impressive. Gordon Beckham, for all intents and purposes, is a bust.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

If a scout could prove he was better than others, he'd be worth a fortune. Perhaps none of them are better than average?

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

No Beckham would be in the upper grouping of busts



The line for success is averaging 1.5 WAR (fangraph's WAR)

Beckham is 1.1

on pace for 1.6 this year. at least at B-R.

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

Ill bet he makes an All star team at some point

his kid maybe. ball players on both sides of the family tree. wonder how often that has happened.

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

He's a good defensive second baseman. If he goes to the NL (away from Cano, Pedroia, and Altuve) he could have a good first half and make one

he's like Babe Ruth compared to Darwin Barney.

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

Whatever the case, they're identifying players marginally better than Beckham as "successful". That was my friend's argument with Epstein. He'd rather take a chance trying to get a Kershaw or Verlander than wind up with a 1.5-2.0 WAR position player which is where many of the "successful" draftees fall.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don