good dolphin wrote:
hootmon wrote:
Lucky call doesn't even begin to cover this. I bet they didn't even believe this record prediction when they made it.
It's not like they pulled it out of a hat. It was based on statistics that IIRC have proven to be fairly accurate in predicting over the years.
Many times thorough investigation can overturn commonly held beliefs. I'm still amazed that boulder and a shoe will fall to earth at the same speed (in a vacum, of course).
I understand what you (and they) are saying, but my contention remains that the one single factor that doomed the Sox this year was the combined team BA of about .230-240 through June. I don't see how anyone could have predicted that, even with all the stats they plug in. I think the 72-90 record was based on events that may not have necessarily occurred, but other events (bad hitting) led to the actual record. I am just stunned that 72-90 may end up being dead on.