It's not marginal and you know it. This is probably the worst part of your theory and the one I know you know is false.


Except you said "a bullpen might blow a game for him" so that tells me he was going to win....or they wouldnt be "blowing it for him"

Are you attempting to argue that percentage is not affected by having Less Wins?





The team around him and competition faced is the main reason for his better numbers.

You're just wrong on this

And it's a copout anyway. You're sitting here saying a guy is "a .500 pitcher that pitches to his competition" then when that proves to be not the case you say "oh...well he just got better then"




I think its a bit arrogant on your part to assume you are right when pretty much 99% of people who follow the game, analyze the game and get paid to work in the game completely disagree.

He is certainly not bad. He's better than post 2008 Gavin Floyd ever was.

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Disagree with what? That Jeff Samardzija isn't a good pitcher? I have no idea what percentage of people think he is a good one. And frankly, I don't care. If that makes me arrogant, so be it. But I'm not going along with the Emperor's new clothes just because many goofs decided that WHIP and FIP are the measurements to be used to declare a man successful rather than what actually occurs within a competitive situation.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

If Gavin Floyd is the measuring stick, you really aren't very good. In actuality, Floyd is a good comparsion for Samardzija. Prior to getting hurt he had certain numbers the led one to believe he could be better than he usually was.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

You waaaaay overvalue Wins as a stat.

You ignore the large difference between offenses. You ignore defense.

You overvalue the unique elements of each single game

We are talking about what actually occurs. Samardzija actually has given up 1.06 baserunners per inning. It happened. It's reality.

Guys get Wins when pitching terribly and losses when pitching well. Also reality.



You're the one clinging to the Emperor. You and BadRogue are telling everyone to move along with the parade while everyone else is screaming that the Emperor is naked

From 2009 until he got hurt, his W-L was under .500.

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Floyd got 5.90 runs per game of support in 2008 and went 17-8

Gavin Floyd also had a 2.38 ERA in his wins and a 6.02 ERA in his losses that year... but i'm sure it was mostly run support that decided those games, right?

Are you really trying to make the case that the offense scoring 5.90 runs per game (a full run higher than the team's average) didnt help?



In 2008, He gave up 4 runs or more 16 times and lost 5 of those starts. (5.90 run support)

In 2009 he gave up 4 or more runs 9 times and lost 7 of those starts (4.44 run support)

In 2010 he gave up 4 or more runs 12 times and lost 10 of those starts (3.92 run support)

I just checked my post again. No, i didn't say that. To be clear, I'm saying Gavin Floyd had a big part in winning the games that he won and a big part in losing the games that he lost.

Not sure why this arbitrary number means something to you, but he gave up 4 or more runs 12 times in 2008, not 16 times. I didn't check the other years, i'll assume they're as accurate as everything else you posted.

You wrote

but i'm sure it was mostly run support that decided those games, right? in a sarcastic manner in a thread where we are discussing whether or not Run support even exists (JORR says it doesnt)

Seems like discounting run support to me.


The run support was the biggest factor. Ill bet he had similar era numbers in wins and losses in other years. The difference is obvious....run support

People see what they want to see i guess.

Obviously.

But I happen to know you're a guy who is intelligent and good with numbers.

If the ERA in Wins/ERA in Losses is close to the same in other years and the run support is way skewed, then its pretty clear the run support is the difference, right?

He's had 9 starts actually. 3 nd's.How many starts do we give him to get a picture? 15? Also he's not losing games because of no run support in Oakland, Its because since he came there his ERA is over 4 or 1.3 runs per game worse than when he was with the Cubs. So if he cant win games here with no run support and he cant win games in Oakland who has scored the most runs in the league is he just the hardest of hard luck pitchers? You think Beane didn't expect more than 3-3 in with a plus 4 ERA in 9 starts when he traded for him? I started this thread as a way to track just how much better would he be with a great offense. So far he's a guy with a decent stat line and little else to show for it. I know you weren't clamoring for the Cubs to keep him , really no one here was. He's a cocky, never was pitcher who claims to want the ball in big games and wants big money. He's not deserving of either.

_________________
Proud member of the white guy grievance committee

It aint the six minutes. Its what happens in those six minutes.

We all just disagree here. Im not sure why I keep arguing.

You way overvalue limiting baserunners. That's something that's far more important for a short stint reliever when the amount of outs remaining is limited. Like most modern fans you're dazzled by what might be called "dominance" while ignoring some basic realities. Pitchers are going to allow baserunners and runs. What counts is the way they allow them and when. The current conventional wisdom seems to be that the context of the game is incidental. A man just produces the best numbers he can and where they fall is all luck. I don't believe that for one minute.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

None of us are changing our opinions even a little bit. Agree to disagree.

As long as yours is that Samardzija isn't that good Im cool with it .

_________________
Proud member of the white guy grievance committee

It aint the six minutes. Its what happens in those six minutes.

He's one of the top 25 or 30 starters in baseball. He's be a #2 on most teams and a #3 on real good teams

My point is that stats can be very misleading. People do this stuff for a living, we don't. I'm guessing it's a whole lot more difficult and time consuming than just clicking on baseball reference, looking at the WAR or whip or whatever the flavor of the month is. Go back to your Gavin Floyd example.

2008 when he gave up 3 runs or less he was 14-3
2009 when he gave up 3 runs or less he was 9-4
2010 when he gave up 3 runs or less he was 10-3
same years
2008 when he gave up 4 or more runs he was 3-5
2009 when he gave up 4 or more runs he was 2-7
2010 when he gave up 4 or more runs he was 0-10
Draw your own conclusion from that.

Shark with a youge win the other night against the Astros . 8 innings, 6 hits, 2 runs , 2 earned runs. 1 walk, 10k's. Ran his record playing with the highest scoring team in the league to 4-3. WHIP of just over 1 yet he's managed to lose 3 times with this offensive powerhouse. Unlucky.

_________________
Proud member of the white guy grievance committee

It aint the six minutes. Its what happens in those six minutes.

My favorite part of this thread is how even when he Wins you rip him.


Look, Wins are everything or they arent.

You cant talk all this shit about how run support doesnt matter and then when he actually gets your holy grail of stats, THE W, you chalk it up to run support

Poor Shark can't catch a break. A victim of no run support yesterday in a 2-0 loss to Anaheim he falls to 4-4 . Look at his .960 WHIP though!! Some guys are just destined for mediocrity no matter who they play for.

_________________
Proud member of the white guy grievance committee

It aint the six minutes. Its what happens in those six minutes.

Nobody has ever said "Wins are everything." But it should be obvious that they aren't "meaningless." Samardzija can lose on good teams or bad ones. He's going to cost Oakland the division.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Pretty sure Billy Beane expected more than 4 wins and .500 record from him when he made the deal.

_________________
Proud member of the white guy grievance committee

It aint the six minutes. Its what happens in those six minutes.

The post season is when I can celebrate ...right after Samardiza gets shallacked in his first playoff performance . I'm still hoping for a rough September n watch that Era climb.

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He isn't likely to get shellacked though. He has too much stuff for that. That's shown in his numbers like WHIP and K/BB. The problem is people confuse having a lot of stuff with being a good pitcher. What he'll probably do- if he doesn't cost them the postseason altogether- is lose 3-1 to a guy a whole lot of people would tell you isn't as good a pitcher as Jeff Samardizija.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

People have and are acting like that is true besides never stating the words.


Anyway, Im just saying you cant scream about how W-L is so important and then go back to run support when he Wins a game.


Saying he's going to cost them the division is hilarious. I doubt even you believe that JORR

They've had a precipitous drop in offensive production in the second half

Athletics' Offensive Splits: First and Second Half
R BA OBP SLG HR XBH wOBA wRC+
STATISTIC (1ST HALF RANK) 466 (2) .251 (16) .328 (5) .400 (8) 98 (T-6) 277 (8) .323 (6) 109 (3)

STATISTIC (2ND HALF RANK) 171 (6) .239 (25) .312 (16) .380 (17) 36 (T-9) 109 (12) .307 (18) 97 (11)
MLB.com, Baseball Reference, FanGraphs



So, you can stop saying "the highest scoring team in the league" They've actually been one of the worst offensive teams while he's been there. But that's probably his fault, right?


But its more fun to blame SHARK and pretend it validates the belief in W-L %

They're the top scoring team in the league. Maybe Detroit has scored as many or a couple more runs as of this morning, I'm not sure. So what are you saying now? That the average runs per game a team scores is suddenly irrelevant to today's game? In the past you've insisted that a team averaging a fraction of a run more was a big part of a reason for a pitcher getting an "unlucky" loss. In each game there is a pitcher on the other side facing a better offense than the one Samardzija has to face. How good could a pitcher be if he regularly allows more runs to an inferior offense than the guys he faces do to a superior one?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

What are you talking about?

The A's have been one of the worst offenses in baseball since the trade deadline. I just posted the numbers.


They ranked 22nd in runs scored in August


Everyone who follows baseball knows and has been talking about how their offense disappeared. Not sure how you missed that. Its why they traded for Adam Dunn.

And Ive never called a pitcher unlucky. You must be confusing me with someone else.