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America
PostPosted: Wed Sep 10, 2014 11:32 pm 
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So I put it to you, CSFMB, how?
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SomeGuy
PostPosted: Wed Sep 10, 2014 11:44 pm 
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America wrote:
So I put it to you, CSFMB, how?


Best got decimal points, nerdy guys in lab coats and computers.....

What he doesn't have is two of the best best hitters ever (all roided up) in the middle of his line up.

Funny.
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Hussra
PostPosted: Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:09 am 
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Beane over-values raw OBP and thus under-valued Yoenis Cespedes due to Cespedes' approx .300 OBP.

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Sure, Cespedes has a slightly below league average OBP, but his run scoring efficiency when he reaches base was rather elite while in Oakland (still the case in Boston, btw). His 40% run scoring success rate places him in the top 10 in baseball among qualified hitters – well above the league average 30%. That means he’s just as productive at scoring runs with a .303 OBP as a player with a .400 OBP but league average RS% (30%). This run scoring efficiency combines with his outstanding win probability added (3.0 – 9th in the MLB) to describe a player far more valuable than traditional rate stats would suggest.
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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagra ... ercentage/

Also, Cespedes brought an electricity to the Oakland Coliseum and the A's clubhouse that Beane apparently doesn't have a stat for.
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Regular Reader
PostPosted: Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:44 am 
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Hussra wrote:
Beane over-values raw OBP and thus under-valued Yoenis Cespedes due to Cespedes' approx .300 OBP.

Quote:
Sure, Cespedes has a slightly below league average OBP, but his run scoring efficiency when he reaches base was rather elite while in Oakland (still the case in Boston, btw). His 40% run scoring success rate places him in the top 10 in baseball among qualified hitters – well above the league average 30%. That means he’s just as productive at scoring runs with a .303 OBP as a player with a .400 OBP but league average RS% (30%). This run scoring efficiency combines with his outstanding win probability added (3.0 – 9th in the MLB) to describe a player far more valuable than traditional rate stats would suggest.
\
Image


http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagra ... ercentage/

Also, Cespedes brought an electricity to the Oakland Coliseum and the A's clubhouse that Beane apparently doesn't have a stat for.


Whoops. :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Rod
PostPosted: Thu Sep 11, 2014 6:09 am 
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Hussra wrote:
Beane over-values raw OBP and thus under-valued Yoenis Cespedes due to Cespedes' approx .300 OBP.

Quote:
Sure, Cespedes has a slightly below league average OBP, but his run scoring efficiency when he reaches base was rather elite while in Oakland (still the case in Boston, btw). His 40% run scoring success rate places him in the top 10 in baseball among qualified hitters – well above the league average 30%. That means he’s just as productive at scoring runs with a .303 OBP as a player with a .400 OBP but league average RS% (30%). This run scoring efficiency combines with his outstanding win probability added (3.0 – 9th in the MLB) to describe a player far more valuable than traditional rate stats would suggest.
\
Image


http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagra ... ercentage/

Also, Cespedes brought an electricity to the Oakland Coliseum and the A's clubhouse that Beane apparently doesn't have a stat for.


But that's considered "luck". RBI are meaningless.

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rogers park bryan
PostPosted: Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:04 am 
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RBI arent meaningless but there are more telling stats


The Cespedes trade hurts and it coincided with Moss taking just a crazy nose dive


Samardzija has been average and Hammel died I think
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Kirkwood
PostPosted: Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:27 am 
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No he didn't. His players stopped overperforming.
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Brick
PostPosted: Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:43 am 
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America wrote:
So I put it to you, CSFMB, how?
Moneyball 2 looks to be a horror film.

Looks like Team Math loses another one.

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jimmypasta
PostPosted: Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:57 am 
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I for one was really surprised at the A's collapse. Tenace sucks at 1st base,Rudi is great in LF but not much of a hitter and Reggie strikes out too much.

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City of Fools
PostPosted: Thu Sep 11, 2014 8:18 am 
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I've watched as 'America' has quoted all over this board lately. I think you're wrong on this one. The A's may look toothless now but they'll back into the playoffs. And when they're there, the pitching they have will have an impact. I see the A's in the Series if they can just get this pesky "make the playoffs" thing out of the way.

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sinicalypse
PostPosted: Thu Sep 11, 2014 9:03 am 
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yeah don't forget that whole thing where the angels have an awesome offense too and have kind of stormed ahead of the A's to have the best record in baseball. you dont hear much about trout this year because he's got a ho-hum .283/32/103/14 on sept 11th. pujols back to .278/26/90. and i think that calhoun's a player too... if you get anything out of josh hamilton, damn. they should go sign aramis ramirez as a free agent this year when the brewers don't offer him more than a year.

TL;DR i think it's more the angels taking the division than the A's finding ways to lose it.

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Frank Coztansa
PostPosted: Thu Sep 11, 2014 3:57 pm 
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Well, the White Sox have 11 wins since August 1st and three of those have come this week against the A's :lol:

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Brick
PostPosted: Thu Sep 11, 2014 3:58 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Well, the White Sox have 11 wins since August 1st and three of those have come this week against the A's :lol:
The future of the Sox is so bright I need shades.

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America
PostPosted: Thu Sep 11, 2014 4:59 pm 
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I know it's Chris Sale, and he's awfully good at throwing baseballs, but before the trade I could not imagine that lineup doing as poorly as they did today.
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Hussra
PostPosted: Thu Sep 11, 2014 8:11 pm 
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Samardzija has been pretty much who you'd expect him to be going from the NL to the AL.

His ERA in the 2nd half (rough demarcation btw teams) has ballooned from 2.78 to 3.62, going from DH-less NL to the AL.

Shark's WHIP has gone down, his K to walk ratio has improved. But he's given up 10 home runs in only 11 starts vs 8 HR in 19 starts in the 1st half. And apparently teams are able to run on Oakland's catcher. 6 SB in 19 starts the 1st half, 11 SB in 11 starts 2nd half. Giving up a stolen base and a home run per start in the 2nd half--surprised his ERA isn't north of 4.00 for the 2nd half.

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spmack
PostPosted: Thu Sep 11, 2014 8:20 pm 
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Hussra, I wouldn't say "ballooned". And 3.62 is pretty good in the AL.

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Hussra
PostPosted: Thu Sep 11, 2014 8:21 pm 
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For the playoffs, looking at remaining schedules, I'd guess the AL Wild Cards will be whichever Central team doesn't take the division and then either Seattle or Toronto. Toronto and Seattle play a 4 game series, 2nd to last series of the season. If the Blue Jays can take close ground by/during that series, the Jays finish the season with 3 games against an Oriole team that will likely be running AAA pitchers out and resting guys for the post-season--as Baltimore has a 10 game lead in their division and they should know by then if they have a shot at catching the Angels for the best AL record.
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