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PostPosted: Sun Sep 07, 2014 8:54 pm 
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Betting every favorite on the money line was a profitable venture last year, or as Mac calls it, free money. I suspect things will return to normal this year, and this will be a losing proposition. There is usually a regression to the mean, and the boys in Vegas always adjust.

Seattle -235 W
New Orleans -158 L
St. Louis -150 L
Pittsburgh -250 W
Philadelphia -525 W
NY Jets -305 W
Baltimore -115 L
Bears -308 L
Houston -170 W
Kansas City -175 L
New England -180 L
Tampa Bay -245 L
San Francisco -170 W
Denver -370 W
Detroit -275 W
Arizona -160 W

9-7 (-431)

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Last edited by Chus on Tue Sep 09, 2014 8:57 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 07, 2014 9:26 pm 
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Chus wrote:
Betting every favorite on the money line was a profitable venture last year, or as Mac calls it, free money. I suspect things will return to normal this year, and this will be a losing proposition. There is usually a regression to the mean, and the boys in Vegas always adjust.

Seattle -235 W
New Orleans -158 L
St. Louis -150 L
Pittsburgh -250 W
Philadelphia -525 W
NY Jets -305 W
Baltimore -115 L
Bears -308 L
Houston -170 W
Kansas City -175 L
New England -180 L
Tampa Bay -245 L
San Francisco -170 W
Denver -370
Detroit
Arizona
The fuck dude, I thought that was my idea last year. Though I believe I filtered it to betting only the one or 2 prohibitive favorites every week.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 07, 2014 9:50 pm 
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badrogue17 wrote:
Chus wrote:
Betting every favorite on the money line was a profitable venture last year, or as Mac calls it, free money. I suspect things will return to normal this year, and this will be a losing proposition. There is usually a regression to the mean, and the boys in Vegas always adjust.

Seattle -235 W
New Orleans -158 L
St. Louis -150 L
Pittsburgh -250 W
Philadelphia -525 W
NY Jets -305 W
Baltimore -115 L
Bears -308 L
Houston -170 W
Kansas City -175 L
New England -180 L
Tampa Bay -245 L
San Francisco -170 W
Denver -370
Detroit
Arizona
The fuck dude, I thought that was my idea last year. Though I believe I filtered it to betting only the one or 2 prohibitive favorites every week.


You inspired me to track it last year. The results were not what I expected. I believe that will change this year, as last year was an anomaly.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 15, 2014 2:09 pm 
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week 1: 9-7 (-431)

Week 2
Baltimore -146 W
Carolina -125 W
Buffalo -125 W
Washington -230 W
Tennessee -170 L
NY Giants -125 L
New England -170 W
New Orleans -242 L
Cincinnati -240 W
Tampa -215 L
Seattle -230 L
Houston -164 W
Green Bay -340 W
Denver -900 W
San Francisco -300 L
Indianapolis -164 L

week 2: 9-7 (-546)
ytd: 18-14 (-977)

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Last edited by Chus on Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 15, 2014 2:29 pm 
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I've won a ton of pools by picking the underdogs across the board with one or two exceptions every week. Last year WAS an anomaly.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2014 1:56 pm 
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ytd: 18-14 (-977)

week 3
Atlanta -280 W
Buffalo -146 L
Dallas -135 W
Philadelphia -215 W
NY Giants -120 W
New Orleans -500 W
Cincinnati -275 W
Baltimore -125 W
Detroit -125 W
Indianapolis -245 W
New England -900 W
San Francisco -151 L
Seattle -220 W
Miami -250 L
Carolina -200
NY Jets

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Last edited by Chus on Sun Sep 21, 2014 8:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2014 1:57 pm 
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City of Fools wrote:
I've won a ton of pools by picking the underdogs across the board with one or two exceptions every week. Last year WAS an anomaly.

Did not happen.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2014 4:08 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
City of Fools wrote:
I've won a ton of pools by picking the underdogs across the board with one or two exceptions every week. Last year WAS an anomaly.

Did not happen.


I've won my fair share of pools by having a manatee make my picks.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 23, 2014 3:50 pm 
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Chus wrote:
ytd: 18-14 (-977)

week 3
Atlanta -280 W
Buffalo -146 L
Dallas -135 W
Philadelphia -215 W
NY Giants -120 W
New Orleans -500 W
Cincinnati -275 W
Baltimore -125 W
Detroit -125 W
Indianapolis -245 W
New England -900 W
San Francisco -151 L
Seattle -220 W
Miami -250 L
Carolina -200 L
NY Jets -125 L


week 3: 11-5 +228
ytd: 29-19 (-749)

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 23, 2014 4:23 pm 
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Just to be clear, you're calculating favorites with the money line, right?

I always thought in the NFL, it would be more fruitful to bet underdogs with the money line due to the unpredictability.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 23, 2014 4:43 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
Just to be clear, you're calculating favorites with the money line, right?

I always thought in the NFL, it would be more fruitful to bet underdogs with the money line due to the unpredictability.


Yes, this is playing every favorite, to win $100.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 28, 2014 3:09 pm 
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ytd: 29-19 -$749

Washington -172 L
Miami -200 W
Green Bay -126 W
Houston -135 W
Indianapolis -345 W
Baltimore -165 W
NY Jets -140 L
Pittsburgh -330 L
San Diego -625 W
San Francisco -210 W
Atlanta -255 L
New Orleans -145 L
New England

week 4: 7-5 -$342

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 10:27 pm 
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ytd: 29-19 -$749

Washington -172 L
Miami -200 W
Green Bay -126 W
Houston -135 W
Indianapolis -345 W
Baltimore -165 W
NY Jets -140 L
Pittsburgh -330 L
San Diego -625 W
San Francisco -210 W
Atlanta -255 L
New Orleans -145 L
New England -140 L

week 4: 7-6 -$482
ytd: 36-25 -$1231

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 7:42 pm 
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Week 5

ytd: 36-25 -$1231

Green Bay -425 W
Carolina -125 W
Cleveland -120 W
Philadelphia -199 W
NY Giants -215 W
New Orleans -600 W
Dallas -235 W
Detroit -225 L
Indianapolis -140 W
Pittsburgh -260 W
Denver -385 W
San Francisco -225 W
San Diego -314 W
Cincinnati -140 L
Seattle -330

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 7:48 pm 
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So I should bet $100 on the underdog every week.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 7:58 pm 
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Nas wrote:
So I should bet $100 on the underdog every week.


I'm telling anybody what to bet, but I should have been tracking the moneyline dogs, as well. If I have some time this week, I will go back, and track those.

I would guess that year to year, betting every dog is more profitable than betting the chalk.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:10 pm 
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Chus wrote:
Nas wrote:
So I should bet $100 on the underdog every week.


I'm telling anybody what to bet, but I should have been tracking the moneyline dogs, as well. If I have some time this week, I will go back, and track those.

I would guess that year to year, betting every dog is more profitable than betting the chalk.

?? Looks like the chalk is profitable so far unless Im reading that wrong.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:18 pm 
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badrogue17 wrote:
Chus wrote:
Nas wrote:
So I should bet $100 on the underdog every week.


I'm telling anybody what to bet, but I should have been tracking the moneyline dogs, as well. If I have some time this week, I will go back, and track those.

I would guess that year to year, betting every dog is more profitable than betting the chalk.

?? Looks like the chalk is profitable so far unless Im reading that wrong.


You're reading it wrong.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:19 pm 
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Nas wrote:
badrogue17 wrote:
Chus wrote:
Nas wrote:
So I should bet $100 on the underdog every week.


I'm telling anybody what to bet, but I should have been tracking the moneyline dogs, as well. If I have some time this week, I will go back, and track those.

I would guess that year to year, betting every dog is more profitable than betting the chalk.

?? Looks like the chalk is profitable so far unless Im reading that wrong.


You're reading it wrong.

YTD he's up $1200 betting favorites no :scratch:

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:23 pm 
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I thought that was a minus not hyphen before 1251.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:27 pm 
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badrogue17 wrote:
YTD he's up $1200 betting favorites no :scratch:

A + is good and a - is bad.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 9:05 pm 
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Nas wrote:
badrogue17 wrote:
YTD he's up $1200 betting favorites no :scratch:

A + is good and a - is bad.


Unless it's a diagnosis from your doctor.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 07, 2014 3:04 pm 
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Week 5

ytd: 36-25 -$1231

Green Bay -425 W
Carolina -125 W
Cleveland -120 W
Philadelphia -199 W
NY Giants -215 W
New Orleans -600 W
Dallas -235 W
Detroit -225 L
Indianapolis -140 W
Pittsburgh -260 W
Denver -385 W
San Francisco -225 W
San Diego -314 W
Cincinnati -140 L
Seattle -330 W

week 5: 13-2 +935
ytd: 49-27 -$296

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:05 pm 
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ytd: 49-27 -$296

week 6
Indianapolis -135 W
Denver -460 W
Cleveland -130 W
Tennessee -215 W
Atlanta -190 L
Green Bay -124 W
Minnesota -125 L
Cincinnati -305 PUSH
Buffalo -120 L
Baltimore -180 W
San Diego -350 W
Seattle -474 L
Arizona -248 W
Philadelphia -125 W
San Francisco -200 W

week 6: 10-4-1 +$91
ytd: 59-31-1 -$205

Seahawks go down as almost 5/1 favorites, which would wipe out the first five weeks, if you bet the biggest favorite on the board each week, or free money as Mac calls it.

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Last edited by Chus on Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:42 am, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:08 pm 
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Money line just doesn't feel right for football.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:19 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
Money line just doesn't feel right for football.


You have to take value where you find it.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:31 pm 
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Chus wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Money line just doesn't feel right for football.


You have to take value where you find it.


Wholly agree. It just seems weird to play it that way. I love grabbing the points....love home dogs. I'll be out in Vegas early next month, Bears/Packers weekend.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:29 pm 
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ytd: 59-31-1 -$205

New England -506 W
Indianapolis -190 W
Washington -260 W
Bears -170 L
Cleveland -215 L
Seattle -300 L
Green Bay -295 W
Baltimore -305 W
Buffalo -305 W
Detroit -130 W
San Diego -170 L
Dallas -224 W
Arizona -190 W
Denver W
Pittsburgh W

week 7: 11-4 +$245
ytd: 70-35-1 +$40

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2014 10:48 am 
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ytd: 70-35-1 +$40

week 8
Denver -410 W
Detroit -180 W
Tampa -119 L
New England -245 W
Kansas City -350 W
Seattle -270 W
NY Jets -161 L
Miami -320 W
Houston -181 W
Baltimore -151 L
Philadelphia -121 L
Indianapolis -250 L
Cleveland -290 W
New Orleans -125 W
Dallas -450 L

week 8: 9-6 -352
ytd: 79-41-1 -312

Biggest favorite on the board goes down again. Mac's free money isn't so free.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2014 10:52 am 
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ytd: 79-41-1 -312

week 9
New Orleans -180 W
Miami -140 W
Cincinnati -475 W
Cleveland -325 W
Washington -115 L
Philadelphia -135 W
Kansas City -425 W
Dallas -125 L
San Francisco -550 L
Denver -165 L
Seattle -904 W
Pittsburgh -130 W
Indianapolis W

week 9: 9-4 -55
ytd: 88-45-1 -367

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Last edited by Chus on Sun Nov 09, 2014 7:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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