Well unless they plan to move Castro or Russell to 2nd, wouldn't it make sense to trade one of them? And even if if you trade one guy or many guys, you are giving up something to get something.

The point is you can give away money instead of hard assets.

It's more fun to be a victim

There will never be an effective vaccine. I'll never get one anyway.

I could see Baez getting the heave-ho this offseason. No matter how much he improves, he will never be the prototypical Theo player. They are already bending the rules for Castro; they would be throwing out the rule book with Baez.

In the past three days, the Chicago Cubs have been linked to free agent reliever David Robertson by Tim Dierkes (discussed here), by Mark Feinsand (discussed here), by Gordon Wittenmyer (discussed here), and now by Patrick Mooney, in an article here.

I think its more likely that they use Addison Russel or some other young talent to trade for a pitcher rather than sign 2 or 3 guys,

I don't think Theo will trade his draft picks. However, he should be trying to shop Castro 24/7.

$8-$10 million per on a reliever? Man, I've seen this go wrong too often. Almost as often as seeing a team pick up a scrapheap guy like Pat Neshek and watch him become solid.

Shoot, Veras stole $4 million from us last year.

I don't think Theo will trade his draft picks. However, he should be trying to shop Castro 24/7.

Why the fuck would they waste cash on relief? Their bullpen is already very good.

No thanks on Hamels. I rather overpay in $ than prospects.

Isn't Hamels sort of a head case too?

No thanks on Hamels. I rather overpay in $ than prospects.

No thanks on Hamels. I rather overpay in $ than prospects.

What is Javier Baez's trade value today as opposed to a year ago. Half?

I think that's probably overstating his drop in value if, in fact, his value has dropped at all. This isn't 1998. Middle infielders capable of hitting 35-40 out of the park aren't easy to come by. But I agree with your basic point. If Baez bats 500 times this season and only gets on base 25% of the time, then he becomes a problem for the Cubs.

Arismendy Alcantara: 154 G, 582 AB, 38 2B, 19 HR, 70 RBI, 48 BB, 32 SB, .259/.317/.450
Javier Baez: 152 G, 612 AB, 33 2B, 32 HR, 82 RBI, 48 BB, 23 SB, .242/.298/456
Kris Bryant: 152 G, 530 AB, 32 2B, 33 HR, 75 RBI, 66 BB, 18 SB, .266/.347/.517
Welington Castillo: 118 G, 421 AB, 23 1B, 14 HR, 53 RBI, 41 BB, .259/.323/.413
Starlin Castro: 150 G, 582 AB, 34 2B, 12 HR, 63 RBI, 9 SB, 35 BB, .284/.329/.421
Junior Lake: 69 G, 156 AB, 8 2B, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 6 SB, 9 BB, .256/.301/.417
Mike Olt: 102 G, 253 AB, 13 2B, 14 HR, 41 RBI, 31 BB, 89 K, .213/.304/.431
Anthony Rizzo: 158 G, 598 AB, 39 2B, 34 HR, 99 RBI, 74 BB, 6 SB, .274/.362/.478
Jorge Soler: 146 G, 542 AB, 36 2B, 28 HR, 94 RBI, 67 BB, 2 SB, .247/.330/.483
Luis Valbuena: 132 G, 407 AB, 25 2B, 12 HR, 45 RBI, 51 BB, .241/.328/.396

If all those players hit like that, the Cubs would likely lead the league in runs. That's 203 home runs just from those 10 players. Of course, some of those are overprojections -- Bryant likely won't get that much playing time, and when Bryant does wind up being recalled, Valbuena's playing time would likely be cut. As for Olt, we could only dream he'd do that well. I think the Alcantara projection is a little high -- that's almost All-Star level from him. Rizzo's likely to do a bit better than that, as those numbers aren't an improvement over a breakout 2014; same for Castro.

Let's hope some of those guys, at least, get close to that. Here are key Cubs pitchers:

Jake Arrieta: 31 GS, 195 IP, 18 HR, 66 BB, 174 K, 12-10, 3.55 ERA
Kyle Hendricks: 28 GS, 176 IP, 8 HR, 39 BB, 135 K, 12-8, 3.17 ERA
Edwin Jackson: 28 GS, 164 IP, 18 HR, 64 BB, 130 K, 7-11, 4.50 ERA
Eric Jokisch: 27 GS, 174 IP, 16 HR, 46 BB, 140 K, 10-9, 3.57 ERA
Neil Ramirez: 66 G, 60 IP, 7 HR, 26 BB, 66 K, 3-3, 0 SV, 3.75 ERA
Hector Rondon: 64 G, 66 IP, 6 HR, 20 BB, 61 K, 4-4, 40 SV, 3.05 ERA
Pedro Strop: 66 G, 64 IP, 3 HR, 28 BB, 68 K, 4-3, 0 SV, 3.09 ERA
Jacob Turner: 27 G, 19 GS, 114 IP, 12 HR, 39 BB, 76 K, 5-7, 4.26 ERA
Tsuyoshi Wada: 27 GS, 151 IP, 18 HR, 45 BB, 133 K, 8-9, 4.05 ERA
Travis Wood: 31 GS, 185 IP, 20 HR, 72 BB, 146 K, 9-11, 3.99 ERA

And just for grins:

Jon Lester: 33 GS, 217 IP, 20 HR, 56 BB, 198 K, 13-11, 3.36 ERA

A few caveats on pitcher projections, which James admits are only "53 to 63 percent accurate": won-lost records tend to be pretty close to .500 in the James projection system. No one projects to more than 16 wins and the only ones projecting to significantly over .500 are Felix Hernandez (16-9), David Price (16-9), Stephen Strasburg (16-7) and Adam Wainwright (16-9). In any case, quite a few of the Cubs starters are seen as having solid-to-good years. If Jackson came anywhere close to that he'd be a fine fifth starter, but I don't think he can do that. Regarding the relievers, I think the numbers are pretty close except for the ERAs, which seem quite high to me.

These are fun as an exercise; don't figure the Cubs to do anything specifically like this, except by chance.

Among the essays in the handbook are a review of replay, quite a bit on fielding, a "starting pitcher ranking" developed by James (based primarily on game scores, and in which he notes one of the biggest jumps in the rankings was taken by Jake Arrieta, who moved up from 153rd at the start of 2014 to 61st). Most interesting to me were the manager rankings in various categories, seeing as the Cubs have a new guy in the job with whom we're not all that familiar, at least in his day-to-day tendencies.

Joe Maddon pinch-hits more than any other American League manager and has for several years; he's been quoted as saying he loves the National League game, so I'd expect him to do a lot more of this as Cubs manager. I think that means we can say goodbye to the eight-man bullpen, because a short bench wouldn't allow Maddon the flexibility he seems to desire. Maddon, though, has also been among the league leaders in using relievers on consecutive days -- so he'll have to carefully manage his expected seven-man pen to do that.

In an essay about defensive shifting cleverly titled "Who Gives A Shift?", it's noted that Maddon's Rays were second in the American League in shifts used in 2013 (561; the Orioles were first with 599). The Rays' total increased to 824 in 2014, but still finished second to the Astros, who jumped from 497 to 1341. As I'm sure you noticed, defensive shifts are all the rage now, with overall A.L. shifts increasing from 5,042 (336 per team) in 2013 to 8,856 in 2014 (590 per team). N.L. teams tended to shift a bit less (likely due to the lack of the DH), but they also increased by about 25 percent. The Cubs actually dropped in the number of shifts used in 2014 compared to 2013. In 2013, the Cubs ranked second in the National League (to the Brewers) with 508 defensive shifts; Rick Renteria used the shift less often, just 316 times. The Cubs and Reds were the only teams to have fewer shifts in 2014 than 2013. I'd expect that to change, big time, under Maddon.

Anyway, that's just a sample of the numbers you can find in the Bill James Handbook. It's well worth having (you can order it online at the link at the top of this post) and it'll fill your cold winter days with baseball numbers until spring training begins.

I have MANY years of experience in trying to appreciate steaming piles of dogshit.

So what will it take to get Hamels?

Industry sources say the Phils are looking for at least three top prospects, two that can play right now and another that isn’t far away. The Cubs and Red Sox are two known suitors and both have the farm systems to get a deal done — if they are willing to meet the Phillies’ rightfully high asking price. Amaro and interim club president Pat Gillick must play the Cubs and Red Sox (and maybe even the Dodgers) against each other as they try to maximize their return on Hamels. If they don’t get what they want, they should hang on to Hamels and float his name again in July when a pitching-thirsty contender might be more desperate to ante up.

In keeping with another November tradition, ESPN.com polled 28 general managers, assistant GMs, senior advisers, scouts and other baseball talent evaluators on eight questions that will be front-and-center during Hot Stove season. They responded via email or phone on the condition of anonymity.

5. Who is more likely to get traded this offseason -- Cole Hamels or Starlin Castro?

Responses: Hamels 13; Castro 11; both 3; don't know 1.

These two players have become rumor mill staples for entirely different reasons. The Phillies went 73-89 and finished 23 games behind Washington in the NL East with a $180 million payroll, and Hamels could help them get younger and cheaper by bringing in a mother lode of talent in return.

But moving Ryan Howard in a salary dump is one thing. Trading a 30-year-old three-time All-Star lefty and 200-inning machine is something else. The Phillies' hesitance to move high-priced franchise staples in recent years makes some observers wonder if they have the stomach to go young and ensure themselves of three to four years of pain in the standings and at the gate. And some insiders think GM Ruben Amaro Jr.'s price for Hamels might be prohibitive.

"It sounds like Philly is going in a different direction and might look to move some contracts," an AL exec said. "But Hamels is the one guy who still is really good and has value to them. And with what Ruben is asking for, I'm not sure a trade can be consummated."

Castro is a three-time All-Star at age 24. If the Cubs believe they have a chance to contend in 2015, they might keep him and let him be the bridge to Addison Russell in 2016. But the Cubs have enough Plan B's (Javier Baez, Arismendy Alcantara) to give Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer the option of making Castro available and seeing what kind of package he might command. Castro is signed for $43 million through 2019, and that $8.6 million annual outlay won't scare away many teams with a shortstop void.

"I'm betting on Castro [getting moved]," an AL exec said. "I don't think he's Theo's kind of player. They obviously have a ton of depth coming under him. He's very poor defensively. He's not an on-base guy, and I don't see him fitting with them long term. Theo will certainly ask for a lot, but I think he's realistic."

Two survey respondents had a similar brainstorm on the topic of Castro and Hamels being dealt.

"Hell, maybe they get traded for each other," an AL exec said. Of course, Castro alone wouldn't suffice for the Phillies. But he could be a nice start.

8. Will the Pirates re-sign Russell Martin? If not, where does he land?

Responses: Yes 3; no 25. Potential landing sites: Chicago Cubs 15; Los Angeles Dodgers 5; Chicago White Sox 2; Texas Rangers 2; Toronto Blue Jays 1.

Martin revived his career in Pittsburgh as a driving two-way force and caretaker of the pitching staff. He's a fitness freak and positive clubhouse presence, and in September manager Clint Hurdle ranked him with Andrew McCutchen for his overall impact on the club.

Martin also has the good timing to hit the market when catching alternatives are scarce. Atlanta (Evan Gattis) and Arizona (Miguel Montero) are among the clubs reportedly interested in weighing trade offers for catchers, and the free-agent market is thin this winter and projected to be light on options again next November.

Although the Pirates have an emotional and a baseball stake in keeping Martin, most observers are convinced he'll leave Pittsburgh for a team with a catching void and greater resources.

"I find it far-fetched that Neal Huntington and his baseball people would allow one player to eat up such a significant amount of their payroll," a National League scout said. "I'm sure the Pirates will make a valiant effort and tell their fans all about it but come up $15-20 million short.

"I see a reunion with the Dodgers very likely at this point, as the Dodgers have the financial means necessary to make such an investment and Martin checks off all of those sabermetric boxes such as pitch-framing that Andrew Friedman admires in a catcher. It's like getting Jose Molina and a premium bat all in one, and Andrew must be really interested in that package even if he has to write a much larger contract than he was accustomed to in St. Pete."

Castro's not a Theo guy but Baez is?

about that but they really seem to think they should play for the playoffs in 2015.

I think the media took the hoping to sign an impact player or two comment from Theo/Jed and ran with it. There's been numerous quotes the past couple weeks of them trying desparately to pump the brakes. I believe that Theo/Jed's goal is 79-83 wins next year and playoffs in '16 as a reasonable goal.

yeah, you gotta twist yourself into a pretzel to defend that one.

I think Baez will be gone before Castro, if for no other reason than the Cubs suddenly seem convinced a year ahead of schedule that they should try to contend. I hope I'm wrong about that but they really seem to think they should play for the playoffs in 2015.

He said their goal was to win the divsion, which seems like it should be the same for all teams. They have talent to compete, but they aren't going to 'peak' in 2015, still stayng the course and looking long term.

I'm just saying the media hasn't really built up the expectations. The Cubs have by their comments.

The Cubs may now realize that talking about winning the division and then winning 79 games may be a bad look.

Are you stoned or pissed off, or both, when you create these postings?