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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:17 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Anyone attempting to conclude anything on players with that little experience is either foolish or has an agenda.


I don't really get that. I've seen enough of Baez's at-bats in the majors to know he isn't going to hit doing what he's doing. Sure, he might make adjustments. But guys don't always just get better. Most of the time they find the level where they can't hit. For most of us, that's at 11-12.

What I'd say is more foolish is touting players you wouldn't even recognize because somebody wrote good things about them in a magazine or on a website.



I think the Cubs now have 3 "OBP" guys in the lineup with: LaStella,Coughlin & Fowler.

Baez & Olt & Alcantara can split 3rd base.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:17 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Anyone attempting to conclude anything on players with that little experience is either foolish or has an agenda.


I don't really get that. I've seen enough of Baez's at-bats in the majors to know he isn't going to hit doing what he's doing. Sure, he might make adjustments. But guys don't always just get better. Most of the time they find the level where they can't hit. For most of us, that's at 11-12.

What I'd say is more foolish is touting players you wouldn't even recognize because somebody wrote good things about them in a magazine or on a website.

I disagree. Ive seen way too many players find it in year 2 or 3 to ever write anyone off after half a season.

I dont know what your point is in the bottom paragraph. I know you dont like the prospect ranking world, I disagree. I didnt need to see any good things written other than the guy's numbers. Guys who put up gaudy numbers in the minors have a way higher chance of being good in MLB.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:19 am 
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jimmypasta wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Anyone attempting to conclude anything on players with that little experience is either foolish or has an agenda.


I don't really get that. I've seen enough of Baez's at-bats in the majors to know he isn't going to hit doing what he's doing. Sure, he might make adjustments. But guys don't always just get better. Most of the time they find the level where they can't hit. For most of us, that's at 11-12.

What I'd say is more foolish is touting players you wouldn't even recognize because somebody wrote good things about them in a magazine or on a website.



I think the Cubs now have 3 "OBP" guys in the lineup with: LaStella,Coughlin & Fowler.

Baez & Olt & Alcantara can split 3rd base.


Bryant is going to be at third. Maybe not to start the season though. It's probably worth it to give Olt one more try. If he's going good by the time you're ready to promote Bryant, that's a good problem to have.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:21 am 
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La Stella was 25 when he made his major league debut. His OPS in 93 games was .644.

I guess you can say neither is able to hit major league pitching. :lol: :x


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:24 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Anyone attempting to conclude anything on players with that little experience is either foolish or has an agenda.


I don't really get that. I've seen enough of Baez's at-bats in the majors to know he isn't going to hit doing what he's doing. Sure, he might make adjustments. But guys don't always just get better. Most of the time they find the level where they can't hit. For most of us, that's at 11-12.

What I'd say is more foolish is touting players you wouldn't even recognize because somebody wrote good things about them in a magazine or on a website.

I disagree. Ive seen way too many players find it in year 2 or 3 to ever write anyone off after half a season.

I dont know what your point is in the bottom paragraph. I know you dont like the prospect ranking world, I disagree. I didnt need to see any good things written other than the guy's numbers. Guys who put up gaudy numbers in the minors have a way higher chance of being good in MLB.


Looking at percentages of guys working out is fine. But it seems like most people don't want to look at the negative side. Sure, a guy with Bryant's numbers has a better chance of being a good major leaguer than a guy with Matt Davidson's minor league numbers. But the odds of Bryant being as good as Longoria are extremely low. And I have to think most Cub fans would be disappointed with Bryant being a .270/.350/.500 guy. A lot of people have him hitting .300 with 35 homers as a fucking rookie.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:25 am 
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I should have said until Bryant gets promoted. Of course the Cubs will have other FA utility guys in Spring Training to see if they can hit and fill a void.

Time to bring in Jeff Keppinger!

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:27 am 
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Kirkwood wrote:
La Stella was 25 when he made his major league debut. His OPS in 93 games was .644.

I guess you can say neither is able to hit major league pitching. :lol: :x


I don't understand what difference his age makes. That's all part of this fantasy of drafting guys and saying, "YES!!!!!! WE'RE SET AT SECOND AND SHORT FOR THE NEXT TEN YEARS!!!!!!" It just doesn't work that way.

I would bet Baez will never get on base at .328 clip, something LaStella did in his only year. And is LaStella the only Cub in history without the right to improve?

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:28 am 
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.270/.350/.500 is a guaranteed ROY. Top 20 OPS! Everyone will be ecstatic.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:29 am 
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Kirkwood wrote:
.270/.350/.500 is a guaranteed ROY. Top 20 OPS! Everyone will be ecstatic.


You won't be ecstatic if that's his career though, will you? You do expect more, no?

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:37 am 
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Nope. If this was late '90s to 00's I'd say yes.

If this trend of depressed offense is real then you have to be very happy for 12-15 years of those numbers.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:37 am 
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Jeff Keppinger Update: Eating Out.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:59 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
LaStella can hit big league pitching. I'm not sure about Baez. And if Baez could get on base like Dunn, hell, he might have a HOF career. I wouldn't hold my breath for that.

Will you be happy if Bryant is as good as Longoria? I know Elmhurst Steve thinks his rookie season will be better than Longoria has ever played.

LaStella can, you're right. But OPS is king. And OPS looks very fondly on the type of power Baez has. At a .169 BA, he won't make it in MLB. But if he raises that to .220 or .230 and can walk here and there, he is a starter on most MLB teams.

I'd be very happy if Kris Bryant is Evan Longoria.

We don't listen to Elmhurst Steve.

edit: Excluding 2014 Evan Longoria. Disappointing year.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:05 am 
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jimmypasta wrote:
Jeff Keppinger Update: Eating Out.

Image


The white pants, pink shirt and gaudy watch would indicate they are best friends.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:12 am 
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I think that Fowler trade was an excellent move.

I do think it is a major statement about Alcantara and a minor statement about Almora.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:17 am 
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Fowler is a free agent at the end of the year. It will only be a statement about Almora is they resign him.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:18 am 
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good dolphin wrote:
I think that Fowler trade was an excellent move.

I do think it is a major statement about Alcantara and a minor statement about Almora.


It's a one year deal, though. Not sure it's that big of a statement for either. Alcantara will still play a lot.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:20 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
jimmypasta wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Anyone attempting to conclude anything on players with that little experience is either foolish or has an agenda.


I don't really get that. I've seen enough of Baez's at-bats in the majors to know he isn't going to hit doing what he's doing. Sure, he might make adjustments. But guys don't always just get better. Most of the time they find the level where they can't hit. For most of us, that's at 11-12.

What I'd say is more foolish is touting players you wouldn't even recognize because somebody wrote good things about them in a magazine or on a website.



I think the Cubs now have 3 "OBP" guys in the lineup with: LaStella,Coughlin & Fowler.

Baez & Olt & Alcantara can split 3rd base.


Bryant is going to be at third. Maybe not to start the season though. It's probably worth it to give Olt one more try. If he's going good by the time you're ready to promote Bryant, that's a good problem to have.


Bryant needs like 9 games in the minors to secure the extra year (http://www.bleachernation.com/2014/10/2 ... next-year/)

. Olt's not going to change any minds in that short of a time. Plenty of options to fill in at third there for 9 games. May even be Alcantara.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:21 am 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
Fowler is a free agent at the end of the year. It will only be a statement about Almora is they resign him.


You think they traded for him for one year, a year that, despite outward appearances, management has to know is most likely another dead one? That doesn't seem to be the way they work

If Fowler is here for one season, that is not a very good trade.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:29 am 
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good dolphin wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
Fowler is a free agent at the end of the year. It will only be a statement about Almora is they resign him.


You think they traded for him for one year, a year that, despite outward appearances, management has to know is most likely another dead one? That doesn't seem to be the way they work

If Fowler is here for one season, that is not a very good trade.

Qualifying offer nets a pick.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:29 am 
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good dolphin wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
Fowler is a free agent at the end of the year. It will only be a statement about Almora is they resign him.


You think they traded for him for one year, a year that, despite outward appearances, management has to know is most likely another dead one? That doesn't seem to be the way they work

If Fowler is here for one season, that is not a very good trade.


Yes I do think they traded for him for one year. I also think this trade has very little significance. They needed outfield depth and had infield depth to spare so they traded a guy for a guy. If Almora backs up this year they will go forward with someone better than Dexter Fowler


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:30 am 
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It's an acceptable trade. If someone offers you up an OBP guy that can stand in CF and has a possibility of warranting a QO in his walk year for your surplus parts, you take it. Those guys are a lot more valuable to the Astro than they would be to the Cub. Personally, I think Fowler is a bit brittle and may need to be moved to left, so he isn't really blocking anyone.

Also, somewhat related: The St Louis Cardinals scoff at your prospect rankings.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:33 am 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
Fowler is a free agent at the end of the year. It will only be a statement about Almora is they resign him.


This is what I have an issue with. And please don't make it into a Cub/Sox thing. It's not. It just doesn't matter how you build a good team. Building it at all is the important thing.

I get the feeling that a lot of fans think it's better to have Almora kicking ass for you than Fowler. As if he's their child or something. And that's exactly the way the people at the Cubs Convention acted. The only advantage to Almora over Fowler is cost control. If you think Almora is really going to get on at a 37% clip, I think you're kidding yourself.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:35 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
Fowler is a free agent at the end of the year. It will only be a statement about Almora is they resign him.


This is what I have an issue with. And please don't make it into a Cub/Sox thing. It's not. It just doesn't matter how you build a good team. Building it at all is the important thing.

I get the feeling that a lot of fans think it's better to have Almora kicking ass for you than Fowler. As if he's their child or something. And that's exactly the way the people at the Cubs Convention acted. The only advantage to Almora over Fowler is cost control. If you think Almora is really going to get on at a 37% clip, I think you're kidding yourself.

People like homegrown players better. Nothing wrong with that. Means you were right earlier.

I think Cub fans will take whatever they can get.

And Almora might be a different kind of player.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:36 am 
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Fowler is a somehwat interesting hitter. He almost never swings at balls outside the zone, and almost always swings at balls in the zone. Pretty consistently "lucky" BABIP and good line drive rates, so he's hitting it hard out there. Decent guy for fantasy, if you're into that kind of thing.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:38 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
People like homegrown players better. Nothing wrong with that. Means you were right earlier.



I think that's a big part of it- being right. You talked about the odds of guys nmaking it based on their minor league numbers. Fine. But if we're talking about odds, the guy that is proven at the major league level is always a better bet than the guy who isn't. Some guys like Keyser Soze inexplicably prefer the unproven to the proven. Go Beckham!

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:38 am 
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Apologist wrote:
Fowler is a somehwat interesting hitter. He almost never swings at balls outside the zone, and almost always swings at balls in the zone. Pretty consistently "lucky" BABIP and good line drive rates, so he's hitting it hard out there. Decent guy for fantasy, if you're into that kind of thing.


2017 MVP for the St. Louis Cardinals

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:41 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
People like homegrown players better. Nothing wrong with that. Means you were right earlier.



I think that's a big part of it- being right. You talked about the odds of guys nmaking it based on their minor league numbers. Fine. But if we're talking about odds, the guy that is proven at the major league level is always a better bet than the guy who isn't. Some guys like Keyser Soze inexplicably prefer the unproven to the proven. Go Beckham!

Absolutely that's part of it.

Plus I mean when you watch the kids grow it means more. I mean Im sure the Marlins fans enjoyed 97 but Ill bet 03 was better.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:42 am 
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seems like a pretty good deal for CUb

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:48 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
Fowler is a free agent at the end of the year. It will only be a statement about Almora is they resign him.


You think they traded for him for one year, a year that, despite outward appearances, management has to know is most likely another dead one? That doesn't seem to be the way they work

If Fowler is here for one season, that is not a very good trade.

Qualifying offer nets a pick.


qualifying offer might be accepted and the logic doesn't seem good to give up Straily for a first round pick

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:51 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
Fowler is a free agent at the end of the year. It will only be a statement about Almora is they resign him.


This is what I have an issue with. And please don't make it into a Cub/Sox thing. It's not. It just doesn't matter how you build a good team. Building it at all is the important thing.

I get the feeling that a lot of fans think it's better to have Almora kicking ass for you than Fowler. As if he's their child or something. And that's exactly the way the people at the Cubs Convention acted. .


Not acted. They outright said it as quoted in the sunday newspapers

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