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bigfan
 Post subject: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:22 am 
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Always love this.

PECOTA White Sox WINS Projections 78
PECOTA Cubs WINS Projections 82

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Hawg Ass
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:24 am 
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bigfan wrote:
Always love this.

PECOTA White Sox WINS Projections 78
PECOTA Cubs WINS Projections 82

What does he have the Crew at if you don't mind?

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Hatchetman
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:24 am 
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I always love to look at the player numbers embedded. Prolly have Beckham with 500 ABs and Avi Garcia with 150.

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bigfan
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:24 am 
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Brewers 79 WINS

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bigfan
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:25 am 
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These estimates are usually very conservative for players and teams.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

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Hawg Ass
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:27 am 
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bigfan wrote:
These estimates are usually very conservative for players and teams.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

It is blocked at work. :(

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Kirkwood
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:30 am 
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Kirkwood
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:33 am 
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Baez! Woof
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IMU
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:41 am 
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I hope those are conservative, BA wise.

Coghlan, Soler, Fowler, and Rizzo should all hit for higher averages, and probably have a higher OBP as well.

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Apologist
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:54 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
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Rod
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:57 am 
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I've never devoted "a massive amount of text" to PECOTA. It's about as significant as the player it's named for.

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City of Fools
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:04 pm 
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as long as we're giving opinions, I don't see Soler staying healthy enough to get 85%, nor do I expect even those numbers they projected for Baez at this point. I also don't see LaStella getting major playing time once Bryant comes up and I expect Bryant to have Rizzo like numbers his first season...

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Kirkwood
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:05 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I've never devoted "a massive amount of text" to PECOTA. It's about as significant as the player it's named for.

Stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. PECOTA is BP's proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with historical player-seasons. There are three elements to PECOTA:

1) Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors;
2) Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player's true talent level;
3) A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players' stats changed over time.


:D
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Big Chicagoan
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:06 pm 
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City of Fools wrote:
as long as we're giving opinions, I don't see Soler staying healthy enough to get 85%, nor do I expect even those numbers they projected for Baez at this point. I also don't see LaStella getting major playing time once Bryant comes up and I expect Bryant to have Rizzo like numbers his first season...


La Stella will be playing 2B most of the year.
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conns7901
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:09 pm 
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What were last years projections?

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Kirkwood
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:09 pm 
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643 plate appearances by Eaton! Faaaaaaade
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Kirkwood
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:14 pm 
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Cubs pitchers...no good! Shark carrying the Cubs stink.
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Apologist
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:15 pm 
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Hey Kirkwood... as long as your behind the paywall, can you go post those in teh Cardinal thread?

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IMU
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:22 pm 
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Hendricks as a spot starter?

These PECOTA numbers are bad. You should cancel your BP subscription on principle.

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Hatchetman
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:35 pm 
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no obvious glaring mistakes in the Sox calculations.

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Rod
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:40 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
no obvious glaring mistakes in the Sox calculations.



You expect Samardzija to have a 4+ ERA? Abreu to have less than 100 RBI? How can they even predict RBI? Everyone knows that's just luck.

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Hatchetman
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:45 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
no obvious glaring mistakes in the Sox calculations.



You expect Samardzija to have a 4+ ERA? Abreu to have less than 100 RBI? How can they even predict RBI? Everyone knows that's just luck.


I didn't even look at RBI. This isn't 1977.

Smarj aint exactly Greg Maddux in his prime. I dunno.

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Minooka Meatball
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:56 pm 
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conns7901 wrote:
What were last years projections?


2014:


(from CBSSports dot com)

For the full projections, hop on over to Baseball Prospectus. Keep in mind -- again, other than the Dodgers -- that these things tend to be conservative.

The playoff teams, per PECOTA:

AL East champ: Red Sox
AL Central champ: Tigers
AL West champ: Athletics
AL wild cards: Rays, Angels

NL East champ: Nationals
NL Central champ: Cardinals
NL West champ: Dodgers
NL wild cards: Giants, Braves

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IMU
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:16 pm 
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:lol: :lol: That AL, though. Red Sox and Rays, baby!

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good dolphin
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:37 pm 
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when they are incorrect we will hear that the system analyzes what has happened rather than accurately projecting what will happen

Isn't this the group that has thrown up its hands and said it cannot accurately assess the white sox?

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redskingreg
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:42 pm 
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Look at that Real Ass Player in CF for the Cubs.

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badrogue17
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:42 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
when they are incorrect we will hear that the system analyzes what has happened rather than accurately projecting what will happen

Isn't this the group that has thrown up its hands and said it cannot accurately assess the white sox?

No thats White Sox fans.

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Hussra
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 2:08 pm 
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Red Sox and Rays? Rays have given up their best pitchers and Joe Madden's plotting goofy pranks up in Wrigleyville.
Ortiz turns 40 this year. How good are those PEDs?

Tigers are done. They missed their World Series win window and will now miss the playoffs until Pizza-Pizza dude dies or sells the team.


Rangers had a lot of injuries last season and made some smart trades. They should be back in the playoffs. Oakland have any pitching or hitting?
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Apologist
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 2:50 pm 
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Frank Coztansa
 Post subject: Re: PECOTA TIME!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 4:01 pm 
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Kirkwood wrote:
643 plate appearances by Eaton! Faaaaaaade
You're better off fading John Danks at 10-12 with a 4.48era.

I think most Sox fans would be thrilled if he was able to do that. Is that accurate enough for you, badrogue? :roll:

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