using Trakus data here is how fast Dortmund was moving ( in mph) in the last segment in the race along with some horses out of previous runnings of the Robert Lewis Stake


Dortmund 34.6 mph

Flashback 35.6
Candy Boy 36.6
Chitu 35.9
MidnightHawk 35.2

Good stuff. I kinda figured it was that. I like the way you put it: "I don't want to chew up profits by making a losing bet on purpose." Do most experienced horse players share this philosophy? I mean, the option to box your bet exists for a reason, but is it for the novice bettor, or do "sharps" also box their bets?

I wouldn't put much stock in that. You're citing three different races on three different days. The track surface may have been radically different on each of them. A better comparison would be to the maiden race that was won by Cyrus Alexander at a buck sixteen on Saturday. I suspect Cyrus is a serious animal and Dortmund's time compares favorably.

Still, your point is taken. I don't think Dortmund has the speed that American Pharaoh does. But if Pharaoh is on the front going ten panels and Dortmund comes strolling alongside him at the eighth pole, I'm pretty sure which horse I'd want my money on. Maybe Dortmund can't get that close to him though.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I used the Trakus data for simplicity's sake.
The data I use is measured in feet per sesond.
I don't have the variant back yet for Dortmund's race.

Nevertheless he was not running all that fast at the end of the race.
If anyone of any quality was lurking he would have walked right by both of them coming to the wire.

In my experience most bettors want to cash tickets. They don't consider the long term. Money management is everything. You can be the greatest handicapper in the world, but if you have poor money management, you're going to be a loser.

To put it another way, I often bet horses that I don't believe have the best chance to win the race, but who have enough of a chance and the right odds. The key is never to fall in love with a horse. I "loved" Shared Belief on Saturday. I think if they ran that race 100 times he would win it about 65 of them. So in my mind his correct odds are about 1/2. But I'm fighting the 17% takeout. So I can't accept his true odds. I have to cover that 17% bite. Even money just wasn't quite enough for me. So I didn't bet and watched the race. I'm not sad that I didn't cash. There will be plenty of good even money shots to fire on. And if California Chrome had been 6/1 I would have been betting on him.

Most people, including most guys who have gone to the track everyday for thirty years, just think it's a crazy idea to bet against a horse you "love". They're all losers though. When I was much younger an old guy once told me, "You can beat a race but you can't beat the races." He had it exactly backwards.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Well, I'm not arguing that they were going particularly fast in the last 1/8 mile, but if we keep going here we'll be heading into a philosophical discussion much like the one I have so often regarding a pitcher's W/L record.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I am countering the hyperbole that was flowing post-race.
Will he win in May, who knows?
Does he have to show more....yes
Is he currently an underlay....yes

Oh, I agree with all that. I think he has a poor physical profile for a race like the Derby where the ability to stop and start is critical. It looks like it takes him some time to get into gear. I wouldn't be shocked if he made a huge single run, but how do you count on a horse having space to do that in a twenty horse race? Still, you can see he has a good mental makeup and the ability to impose his will on lesser animals. He's big, smart, and intimidating. But for me, he lacks the athleticism I like to see in a Derby horse.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Love the debate, fellas. Keep it going.

FYI, Derby pool 2 closed yesterday.


Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2 Final Odds
1 American Pharoah (10-1) $23.00
2 Carpe Diem (12-1) $26.40
3 Competitive Edge (37-1) $76.60
4 Daredevil (40-1) $82.80
5 Dortmund (10-1) $23.40
6 El Kabeir (39-1) $80.80
7 Far Right (48-1) $99.00
8 Firing Line (35-1) $72.20
9 Frosted (31-1) $64.40
10 Gorgeous Bird (32-1) $67.00
11 Imperia (24-1) $50.20
12 International Star (44-1) $91.00
13 Itsaknockout (30-1) $63.80
14 J S Bach (69-1) $140.40
15 Khozan (25-1) $52.40
16 Lord Nelson (41-1) $85.00
17 Mr. Z (44-1) $90.20
18 Ocean Knight (18-1) $39.00
19 Ocho Ocho Ocho (26-1) $55.60
20 Prospect Park (35-1) $72.20
21 Texas Red (9-1) $20.20
22 The Great War (40-1) $83.80
23 Upstart (12-1) $27.60
24 All Other 3YOs (5-2) $7.00)
Win pool: $340,125.84. Exacta pool: $108,472.21

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agree 100%

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/12328248/metaboss-motors-el-camino-real-triumph

like this one

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

If the race were next week, I'd be looking at that thing that won the Withers.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Big weekend for prep races.

Fountain of Youth
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... m3=1573715
I think Upstart will win, but something is wiseguy-ish about the 1 JUAN AND BINA. I find it interesting that the reigning Jockey of the Year Javier Castellano is off of Bluegrass Singer and on this 20/1 shot. Keep the 1 on your ticket.


Risen Star
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... m3=1551550
Really was hoping to see J S BACH, but he has a fever and is out. If you get 4/1 or higher on INTERNATIONAL STAR, run to the windows.


Southwest Stakes (tomorrow)
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... m3=1273480
Race was supposed to be last week but cancelled due to weather. I like the 9 KANTUNE, and you're getting a good price of 12/1.

_________________

I like the same way the finished in the Holy Bull...watching Danny Boy on the dirt 1st start of the year and has some class ...look AT THE rISEN sTAR LATER

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I think Asmussen's horse is gonna wire that field at Oaklawn on Sunday. If I can get the 5/1 morning line I'm loading up.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Just a question because I am always learning...why do you think he can wire the field when he didn't in a shorter race with less speed? Thank you I'll hang up and wait for my answer

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Winner of the Fountain of Youth and The Risen Star the same as the Holy Bull and La Comonte so what does this tell me???? Not a ;ot

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Here's my thinking, Walt. When he was in those races at 6 and 7, he was going up against true sprinters, horses that could force the first quarter to go sub-22. When I look at this race, there's nothing like that in here. It's really a speedless affair. Mr. Z might go out of there, but he's way out in the 11 hole and I think he'll have a tough time making the top or even pressing the pace. Hillbilly Royalty has won on the engine in both his races, but one was a maiden at Remington Park. I respect Donnie Von, but I don't believe this horse is much. All Vasquez has to do is push out from the rail and he should be able to bounce along on the front as he pleases. The fractions figure to be soft. If he gets lucky and catches any kind of front end bias at all it will be sayonara Charlie. The rail is a huge edge at a buck sixteen and Bayerd is very likely to be the lone speed in here.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Thanks

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Upstart was DQ'd I moved on ...didn't think it was that bad

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Adjusting for run-up Assmussen's horse has opening quarters of 21.5,21.6 and 22.2 back there.
If he wants the lead, it's his.
As the races have become longer they have tried to get him to relax and sit.
He could take it to them out of the gate or if someone is intent on going fast early he could let them go and sit the pocket.

Another factor is trainer intent. I look at this race and I'd be surprised if any of these horses are in the gate on May 2 in Louisville. Here's a horse by Speightstown, 9 panels would seem to be pushing it with him. I'm gonna guess Asmussen isn't using this race to set him up for the Ark Derby. I believe this race is the primary objective. Sixty percent of $300,000 isn't a bad payday and you go from there.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

trying to look at too many things at once this morning the 21.5 should actually be 21.9

intent is part of the guessing game with these horses at this time of the year
who is trying for what and how tightly are the screws tightened

That's the biggest change the new Derby points system has caused. If you think you have a real Derby contender, you really don't have the luxury of setting him up and using the preps as preps. You've got to put the points on his card. Add to that the light racing schedules these guys use these days and every race is critical if you want to ensure your spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

You can't wire a field if you don't go to the lead. I'm not sure if the muddy track was helping the front or not, but I would have liked to see my guy on the lead. It's great to try to teach a horse to rate, but some just wear themselves out fighting the rider. I'll say one thing, Lasix sure stepped the 8 horse up. He made a giant move out there.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

The more I think about the Southwest, the more pissed I am that they didn't put Bayerd on the front. As Buster pointed out, he certainly had enough speed to get there. I figured the only way he could win the race was to control the pace. Once he ducked, I knew he had no chance.

Sometimes when you have a horse that wants to go, you just have to let him go. These are primal herd animals that are trying to avoid being killed by whatever predator they believe is chasing them.

Early in my racing career I bought a horse named Incredible Fee. His father, Incredible Finale was a top horse, owned by George Steinbrenner. But he wasn't much to look at, he had a big stupid jughead and he passed it on to many of his progeny along with a boatload of speed- and ignorance. Incredible Fee was not an exception. All he wanted to do was get to the lead and keep going. He made his first start for us at Balmoral on a really cold January night. He went to the lead and at the half mile marker he was in front by about forty lengths and I'm not kidding. He ended up winning by about five lengths. When I got to the winner's circle, the driver, Artie Gregory, was rubbing his arms. "I just couldn't hold him." He was a stone cold runoff and I knew right away it was going to be a problem.

My solution was to let him roll through the cheap conditions on the front and get as much of my money back as possible. But my partner, Dave, who was training the horse had different ideas. He wanted to "teach him to be a racehorse." Good luck with that. The next time he was in to race I went down to the paddock and Dave had a fucking cardboard box with duct tape around the horse's head. I looked at Dave's assistant, Ed, and we both shook our heads. The horse raced like shit.

Eventually, Dave got frustrated with him and we gave the horse to Erv Miller. Erv took the horse out on the fair circuit and he got really good. He could get around those bullrings in central Illinois like a hoop in a barrel. He set the track record at Jacksonville. But he broke down at Jerseyville and that was the end of him. I ended up losing money with him and he never really "learned" a damn thing.

We'd all like our horses to be versatile enough to stop and start like a car, but it just doesn't work that way. I'm questioning Asmussen here, and maybe he'll make me look stupid when the horse makes a big run from mid-pack to win the Arkansas Derby. But that's something I won't be betting on.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I hope you all ran to window for International Star. I know I did, a little. Eyes lit up when he was 5-1 about 10 MTP, but ticked down to a high 7-2 ($9.80) which is still nice. Fair Grounds is a very tiring track.

_________________

from the get go his intention was to race pocketed-up
it looks like they have no intention of sending this horse, at least while he is still on the Derby trail

I don't know how close to the rail he was but it looks like horses were running off the rail

That was the only race I watched from Oaklawn that day, but I can't think the rail was too bad. Far Right came storming home down low. If the rail was deep, that was really a monster performance.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

if you watch the head on it looks like they don't want any part of the inside
compare it to a 2 turn race , I think the 6th was 2 turns, earlier in the card