I spoke too soon yesterday about Frosted. I like how he finished at the Wood, but was still slow at 1:50 for the 1 1/8 mile trip. Then I did my homework by looking at the 1 1/8 mile times of the main contenders' last races. While good, A.P. and Dortmund's last trips were not fastest. Firing Line was at 1:47, while A.P. and Dortmund ran theirs at 1:48.

Ed O. was right about liking Firing Line. And he has a HOF jockey too, so that's my pick to click at excellent 1-12 odds.

I think a lot would have to happen for Firing Line to beat Dortmund. Dortmund has already chewed him up twice and I don't believe the extra distance favors Firing Line.

A couple things about times. You have to give an allowance to Mubtaahij because there is no run-up in Dubai. And re: Upstart/Materiality, they really crawled home in the Florida Derby, but something was not right with that track that day. I'd look at the Beyer rather than just the time.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Firing Line was beating Dortmund in the G1 Los Alamitos Furity back in Dec before Dortmund won by a head. Firing Line was getting bumped down the stretch, while Dortmund came back from the outside untouched. I don't think you can underestimate Gary Stevens. This may well be his last Kentucky Derby and he's going to make it count.

As for the San Anita Derby, Firing Line just didn't have it that day for whatever reason. It matters more that he came back in the last race with the fastest time of any of the contenders for 1 1/8 mi. at 1:47 .

But you may have a point that the 1 1/4 mile race might be too long for Firing Line. That's one thing I want to look at tonight, who are best horses by breeding to go the long distance.

Here you go, pal. http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2015-who-bred-distance

Oaks Derby Double
3-7 w/ 7-12-15...I just love Lovely Maria and Boo Clark and like Include Betty's Fantasy. Dortmund we all know...International Star has done nothing wrong and Frosted ran much better in the Wood with Blinkers on.

Oaks Woodford Derby

3-7 w/ 8 w/ 7-12-15
The 8 in the Woodford is Stephanies Kitten Girl among the boys ..love Ramsey's and she is 3 for 3 on the CD lawn
$2 DD $1 pick 3 I ain't got JOR money's

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Thanks. Now I'm really confused with Firing Line coming last on this list.

Maybe he's a freak versus his pedigree because here's what Stevens said about him recently:

"He's a pure athlete. He's a great looking horse to look at. If you want to picture a race horse, that is what one is suppose to look like. He's got great stamina, he's got great speed, and he's got a great mind. And for the Derby, I think the last thing I mention is mind, is the most important thing. You've got to have one to stay focused and keep their composure. Not just prior to the race, but during the running of the race," said Stevens.

Track is excellent condition ...should be a a couple of great days of racing!

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

EL KABEIR now scratched.

_________________

We're alive, Walt! Way to go for Boo-Boo! It's a long way from Sportsman's Park.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Had him $5 WP plus my doubles were with the 8 not the 7,,,,was a little dear in this crotchity ol' fucks eye

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Does one of you guys have the Oaks/Derby Double will pays?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... rby-double

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho, $894.
2. Carpe Diem. $91
3. Materiality, $117
4. Tencendur, $650
5. Danzig Moon, $358
6. Mubtaahij, $110
7. scratched
8. Dortmund, $40
9. Bolo, $368
10. Firing Line, $95
11. scratched
12. International Star, $195
13. Itsaknockout, $781
14. Keen Ice, $770
15. Frosted, $86
16. War Story, $826
17. Mr. Z, $981
18. American Pharoah, $28
19. Upstart, $148
20. Far Right, $422
21. Frammento, $1,259

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I got schooled today. I am so disappointed in myself. I'll come back tomorrow with a vengeance.


Here's a nice tip for you guys tomorrow....check for any horses that have raced this year at Fairgrounds....do not leave them off of your tickets. International Star has gone up quite a bit to me now.

_________________

Sitting with doubles on the 6/8 from the Oaks. Kerwin Clark - cant believe he is still riding at 56.

Alright guys I am up early as hell this morning, let's start out with a $45 P4 for Churchill races 2-5.


1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8 / (3 and 5 raced at FairGrounds, 8 raced at Hawthorne which is another tiring track)
2, 8, 9 /
3, 4, 6, 7, 11 / (I feel like if you like the favorite 3 CARVE, you gotta like the 11 BRADESTER who beat CARVE on this track in a stakes race last Sept)
6

_________________

I think Carve is a scratch.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Yep, JORR. As well as Stephanie's Kitten.


and INTERNATIONAL STAR is scratched from the Derby. There goes my FairGrounds angle. But don't leave out Keen Ice or War Story from your exotics.

_________________

Gimme some boxed tris

My dumb ass did not take my own advice. A 23-1 shot won the 4th race, who ran at Fairground a few months back. Just cost myself about $1350 in a Pick 4 and $550 in a Pick 3. Yep. Idiot.

_________________

Does American Pharoah have any shot at the triple crown?

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

I don't see who can beat him in Baltimore. Maybe that Commander horse of Pletcher's that won today.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Walt Williams Neck wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Does this horse have a shot at the triple crown?

Duh.....he's the only one that does

the same answer as last year....Mr, Originality

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

You asked the same question last year penis breath

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

aww walt I know you love me because you remember my posts.

So mr. dildo, does this specific horse in 2015 have a shot at winning the Triple Crown? I understand that he is the only one who has a chance. But that does not mean he really has a chance, got it?

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

I don't see AP losing the Preakness. Firing Line may want another piece at him, but I don't see Baffert putting him and Dortmund in the same race again, maybe the Breeders Cup.

Belmont is tough because he may end up going against horses who haven't raced in 5-6 weeks, whereas AP would be running his 3 in that same timeframe. He looks to be as good, if not better than California Chrome.

_________________

American Pharoah nothing special l time was pedestrian, no great move nothing to go wow about. I see him losing the Preakness. One clocker said he is the best horse he has seen in 35 years got to have his eyes examined!

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Victor Espinoza disagrees. From http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/br ... story.html

_________________
"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

What in the fuck would you expect him to say???

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

He had options. He could have simply said he is a good horse and is looking forward to riding him. He didn't have to add anything about unseen potential. But the article did not have direct quotes so who knows what he really said?

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."