What’s wrong with that NFL report? Marcus saw no evil in the NFL probe. In what ways was the NFL’s investigation a “Keystone cops” endeavor?
Let’s restrict ourselves to just a few such elements. There’s more where this comes from:
The lack of standard league-wide procedures: Part of what follows is irrelevant to the basic questions at hand. But just for the record, the NFL seems to have established no standard procedure concerning the air pressure of footballs in NFL games.
Before each game, NFL referees check the air pressure of the footballs which will be used in the game. Each team provides the dozen footballs it will use on offense.
According to NFL regulations, air pressure of 12.5-13.5 pounds per square inch is acceptable. But the league's now-famous report describes inconsistent practices, some of which are highly relevant to the questions at hand:
Quote:
NFL REPORT (page 36): The details of each officiating crew’s pre-game inspection process nevertheless may vary....Many game officials bring their own air gauge with them to each game. Others may rely on a gauge provided by the home team. Most officials reported that they use digital gauges supplied by Wilson to the NFL. Others have used gauges that they have purchased or otherwise obtained on their own. In addition, some officiating crews adjust the air pressure in a ball only if they determine that it has been set outside of the permissible range, while others may set the pressure of each football to 13.0 psi, regardless of where the balls are initially set by the team, to provide consistency.
Really? Some officiating crews inflate all the footballs to 13.0 pounds per square inch? Other crews allow the footballs to range from 12.5 psi to 13.5 psi, as desired by the teams?
That’s a strangely inconsistent procedure. Beyond that, it seems that the air pressure gauges the officials use can come from pretty much anywhere.
That will turn out to be a key point. Warning! Keystone cops conduct ahead!
A tale of two air gauges: According to the NFL report, Walt Anderson “is one of the most respected referees in the NFL. It is obvious that he conducts his responsibilities with a high level of professionalism and integrity.”
Anderson was head referee for the game in question. But uh-oh! As part of his vast professionalism, he arrived at the game that day with two different air pressure gauges—two different pressure gauges of two different types.
Despite his vast professionalism, Anderson was apparently unaware of an awkward fact which emerged at halftime—his two air gauges produce substantially different air pressure readings! Beyond that, Anderson isn’t sure which of the gauges he used before the start of the game, when he says he determined that all the footballs were within the acceptable range.
It seems these facts could matter a lot. Just continue reading.
Data collection at halftime: According to Anderson, the Patriots’ footballs measured 12.5 psi before the game began. The Colts’ footballs measured 13.0 psi, he said—but he says he doesn’t recall which air pressure gauge he used to obtain these readings.
Uh-oh! During the first half, the Colts intercepted a Patriots’ pass; they apparently believed the ball in question felt soft. Acting with an authority the report doesn’t describe, the Colts measured the ball with their own air pressure gauge, obtaining a reading which was below 12.5 psi.
Alas! By now, a ball which measured 12.5 in the referees’ room should have measured below 12.5, given weather conditions. But despite the vast professionalism which was on display this day, there is no sign in the report that the Colts, or the game officials, understood that elementary fact.
This helped produce the excitement at halftime, in which the pressure of all the Patriots’ footballs was re-measured by two referees. Each referee was given one of Anderson’s two different air pressure gauges to use.
This attempt at data collection contains a Keystone cops element. Uh-oh! According to the NFL report, readings for the Patriots’ footballs consistently differed by 0.3-0.45 psi depending on which gauge was used. And uh-oh! Since Anderson can’t say which gauge he used before the game, there’s no way to make a direct comparison between the pre-game readings and the two sets of readings obtained at halftime.
Meanwhile, due to a shortage of time, the referees only re-measured four of the Colts’ dozen footballs, producing a problematically small “N” for what the report describes as its “control group.” But wait! In the process of measuring those four footballs, another problem surfaced, as was explained in a footnote to page 69 in the NFL report.
Uh-oh! The recorded measurements for one of the Colts’ four footballs were so anomalous that the NFL’s experts decided that the readings for that football had probably been recorded incorrectly! Now, we’re pretty much reduced to an “N” of 3!
Data collection after the game: According to the NFL report, a senior official supervised the data collection at halftime. For reasons which go unexplained in the report, he directed that the Patriots’ footballs should all be re-inflated to 13.0 psi (see page 69).
After the game, this same official decided that four footballs from each team (not all twelve) should be measured yet again. And uh-oh! On one of Anderson’s two gauges, the four Patriots footballs produced these improbable readings (see page 73):
13.50 psi; 13.35 psi; 13.35 psi; 13.65 psi.
The absurdity of this state of affairs should be obvious. In a footnote to page 73, the NFL reports that “our experts” decided to disregard these peculiar post-game readings. At least, we think that's what the NFL said. The league provides this awkward information in tiny type and in confusing language.
At this point, let’s be fair! The NFL hadn’t planned to engage in data collection this day. In some respects, the “Keystone cops” aspect of this operation is therefore understandable.
On the other hand, the NFL can fairly be described as “the gang who couldn’t measure air pressure straight” on this particular day. Consider:
Anderson didn’t record precise psi’s for the footballs he checked before the game. Beyond that, he didn’t know which of his two air pressure gauges he used.
When the referees tried to gather data at halftime, they discovered that the two gauges produced systematically different readings. They only tested four footballs from the Colts, and this meager “N” was reduced to 3 when the NFL judged that one of the readings had been recorded incorrectly.
The readings obtained after the game were so absurd that they were disregarded altogether. Aside from all that, the data collection was perfect!
Did an employee of the Patriots reduce the air pressure in the game balls? It’s certainly possible, based on a range of evidence.
On the other hand, we’re going to make a guess. We’re going to guess that you’ve seen no one mention the “Keystone cops” aspects of this report and investigation. This strikes us as an interesting, unfortunate part of our journalistic scandal culture.
In many ways, the NFL established itself this day as the gang that can’t measure straight. In various ways, its officials seemed completely clueless about the way this whole topic works.
In many ways, this cluelessness produced comical results. But we’ve seen no pundit mention this fact, certainly not Marcus, who began by overstating the degree of certainty the NFL has stated concerning two people’s guilt.
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