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 Post subject: The Preakness
PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 11:00 am 
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The usual suspects I'm going for Competitive Edge ...set a track record on Derby Day...in the Pat Day Mile 8)

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 1:03 pm 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
The usual suspects I'm going for Competitive Edge ...set a track record on Derby Day...in the Pat Day Mile 8)



Are we sure he's going in there?

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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 1:31 pm 
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This then the Met Mile from what I hear

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 7:30 am 
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LCJ is reporting they expect one Pletcher or none .


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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 7:34 am 
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and just like that it is now being reported no Pletcher in Preakness


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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 8:43 am 
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Buster wrote:
and just like that it is now being reported no Pletcher in Preakness

No Materiality?

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 9:03 am 
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http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/zatt/Ten_Fantastic_Editions_of_the_Preakness_Steakes_123

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 9:09 am 
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Buster wrote:
and just like that it is now being reported no Pletcher in Preakness


@NotTheToddster is a hilarious Twitter follow if you're a race fan.

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I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don


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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 12:14 pm 
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The Sunday Silence/Easy Goer race still gives me chills. That had to be one of the 3-4 memorable races I ever saw.


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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 12:27 pm 
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Only 7 look to be going in the Preakness

American Pharoah
Firing Line
Dortmund
Tale of the Verve
Danzig Moon
Divining Rod
Bodhisattva

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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 12:33 pm 
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Only 7 horses? How am I supposed to wager 37 'fectas and not hit this time? Image

Image


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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 12:48 pm 
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spmack wrote:
Only 7 look to be going in the Preakness

American Pharoah
Firing Line
Dortmund
Tale of the Verve
Danzig Moon
Divining Rod
Bodhisattva


Disappointing but always seems to happen in the Preakness


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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 12:54 pm 
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What are the thoughts of the horseplayers here about allowing horses to skip certain Triple Crown races but not others? I seem to recall there were some bitter grapes after the Belmont last year, but the specifics are fuzzy, and I'm inherently too lazy to look it up.

I do remember that the mantra "that's the way it's always been" was trotted (horse pun) out. But I'd like to read the insights of what you guys think. Is that fair to allow a horse to run the Kentucky Derby, skip the Preakness, and then run at Belmont?


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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 1:08 pm 
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Ed_from_Lisle wrote:
What are the thoughts of the horseplayers here about allowing horses to skip certain Triple Crown races but not others? I seem to recall there were some bitter grapes after the Belmont last year, but the specifics are fuzzy, and I'm inherently too lazy to look it up.

I do remember that the mantra "that's the way it's always been" was trotted (horse pun) out. But I'd like to read the insights of what you guys think. Is that fair to allow a horse to run the Kentucky Derby, skip the Preakness, and then run at Belmont?



They're all separate races. How could you force a horse to race in all of them? It's demanding as it is. Many of them can't possibly make all three. That shit with California Chrome was just the mad rantings of a drunken goof whose horse got beat fair and square. It's not easy. That's the point.

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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 1:14 pm 
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There are horses for courses and the reality is that the Derby can kick a horses ass with the number of horses and traffic trouble. The Preakness runs on a tight course that plays heavily to speed. Deep closers rarely have a shot.


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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 1:25 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
They're all separate races. How could you force a horse to race in all of them?


I wasn't saying to force horses to run every race for which they're eligible for the rest of the year. I was playing devil's advocate from a Triple Crown perspective. I get it that if horses were forced to run all 3, the Belmont might only have 2 or 3 horses because of injuries/ailments.

Thanks for the feedback, JORR and Vince.


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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 1:29 pm 
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California Chrome's owner is a moron.

A short field for the Preakness is not the norm


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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 1:45 pm 
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This will probably be the easiest Top 3 in a while....You could do a Trifecta key bet with American Pharoah winning, and hoping that whomever is the higher odds ,probably Dortmund, will come in second, with Firing Line in 3rd.

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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 1:51 pm 
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spmack wrote:
This will probably be the easiest Top 3 in a while....You could do a Trifecta key bet with American Pharoah winning, and hoping that whomever is the higher odds ,probably Dortmund, will come in second, with Firing Line in 3rd.



You're not suddenly giving up on Dortmund after your torrid spring love affair, are you? I like the big guy in this one.

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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 1:55 pm 
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Dortmund's chance is regression from the chalk and the there being something to possibility Firing Line has a physical issue


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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 1:56 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
spmack wrote:
This will probably be the easiest Top 3 in a while....You could do a Trifecta key bet with American Pharoah winning, and hoping that whomever is the higher odds ,probably Dortmund, will come in second, with Firing Line in 3rd.



You're not suddenly giving up on Dortmund after your torrid spring love affair, are you? I like the big guy in this one.

I started the hashtag #DortmundsRevenge on Twitter. I'm not giving up yet. Thinking he can do a Oxbow-like wire to wire win.

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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 1:56 pm 
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Buster wrote:
Dortmund's chance is regression from the chalk and the there being something to possibility Firing Line has a physical issue


I think the Derby was tougher on Firing Line than the other two. I didn't care for the way he was weaving late.

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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 1:59 pm 
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he didn't change leads the way he should have usually that is the sign of something wrong or something going wrong
of course someone could just say it's nothing

it all depends on what line of thinking you want to take


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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2015 7:20 am 
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Horse I liked in the Derby and Preakness don't run :(

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2015 11:16 am 
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Mr. Z might get sold to Calumet Farms today, and if so, will run in the Preakness.

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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2015 4:14 pm 
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Hot off the presses.


Image



Martin Garcia is gonna wipe out AP right at the start.



#DortmundsRevenge

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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2015 4:28 pm 
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I doubt Lukas is worried about his relationship with Zayat. He's probably too old to give a shit. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mr. Z laying all over AP. And that fucker can't steer straight. I expect Dortmund to sit right behind the leaders this time.

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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2015 6:21 pm 
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spmack wrote:
Hot off the presses.


Image



Martin Garcia is gonna wipe out AP right at the start.



#DortmundsRevenge


I knew the odds would be complete shit, but 4/5 on American Pharoah is a stretch. Too bad you can't play the field against the favorite without it being too expensive. Is there a way to calculate the probability of winning just off the odds or no?

This might be one of the few races where the lowest odds horses are all the best 1,2,3. No reason to play any other horses. I do like Firing Line to win at 4-1.

Curious what you're thinking on the odds Joe Orr R.R.?


Last edited by Dignified Rube on Wed May 13, 2015 6:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2015 6:26 pm 
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What do you make if you just did a 1,2,8 box?

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 Post subject: Re: The Preakness
PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2015 6:32 pm 
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pittmike wrote:
What do you make if you just did a 1,2,8 box?


Little bit better than 10-1 on your money without the box compared to 100-1 on hitting the trifecta at the Derby for a $1 bet. With the box you would have to substract the added cost of the box from the return.

$6 for the trifecta box (for a $1 bet) to get a $10 return. I think it's a 5-3 return on your money approximately or almost 2-1.


Last edited by Dignified Rube on Wed May 13, 2015 7:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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