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The Preakness

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Buster

Post subject: Re: The Preakness

Posted: Sun May 17, 2015 8:02 pm

Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2012 11:43 am
Posts: 998
pizza_Place: LouMal

Thorograph is what I fall back to when I'm looking for a 2nd opinion.
The foundation of my handicapping is feet per second at 3 points of call adjusted for runup.

I do employ TG methodolgy to the data I use such as 3yo development etc
I play maiden races and NW1 allowance and NW1 claiming races on dirt and artificial surfaces.
I generally avoid all other types of races except when I have to fill in the rest of a multi-race wager.

Bottom line is use whatever methodology makes you successful.

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Rod

Post subject: Re: The Preakness

Posted: Sun May 17, 2015 8:24 pm

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Oh yeah, there are millions of different angles. I like betting maiden sprints. I've had a lot of success determining who is going to have the lead in fields loaded with first starters. I also like that there is often a favorite that is 0 for many with a bunch of seconds and thirds that I'm comfortable tossing out.

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Dignified Rube

Post subject: Re: The Preakness

Posted: Mon May 18, 2015 6:35 am

Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:42 am
Posts: 4765
pizza_Place: Home Run Inn

Buster wrote:

Dortmund = he is who we thought he is, empty down the lane again with those weak final fractions like a pitcher with a 4-0 w/l record he is perceived to be better than he really is if Baffert can keep him together maybe he can be a decent 7-8 furlong horse

Firing Line = if anyone bet him after what was already known about him and the monsoon hitting Pimlico you got what you deserve

The winner = went into the race lengths faster than the others and took care of business

Is he spent, does he have more in his tank?
He will have to somewhat fresh and fast endure horses taking runs at him.

Who will hold up the final 2 furlongs, nobody knows.

Dude, what are you talking about? Firing-line was the fastest horse going into the Derby and Preakness. Stumbling out of the gate in those conditions at Pimlico could have happened to any of the horses. Had the race been run on a fast track, Firing Line would no doubt have stayed with A.P.

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spmack

Post subject: Re: The Preakness

Posted: Mon May 18, 2015 10:44 am

Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 4:26 pm
Posts: 31155
Location: West Side
pizza_Place: Paisan's in Cicero

Yeah I'm done with Dortmund, JORR. He can beat up on all of the Cali horses if he wants, but I don't think he'll be doing much more.

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Hawkeye Vince

Post subject: Re: The Preakness

Posted: Mon May 18, 2015 2:14 pm

Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 10:17 am
Posts: 14391
Location: West Burbs

I guess my thoughts on Dortmund are I wouldn't toss him out as a strong horse - until he does it again on a fast track. Some horses get the slop - others dont. You can't base a horse's future prospects on a run in the mud.

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Rod

Post subject: Re: The Preakness

Posted: Mon May 18, 2015 3:02 pm

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Hawkeye Vince wrote:

Sure, I just don't see him beating AP in the immediate future regardless of track conditions. But he's a big, strong bastard. He may be going in October when others are cooked.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
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Buster

Post subject: Re: The Preakness

Posted: Mon May 18, 2015 3:20 pm

Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2012 11:43 am
Posts: 998
pizza_Place: LouMal

Dortmund never developed.
It's like a 13yo kid who stopped growing.
Maybe he will come back in the fall more developed and faster but going into the Derby he wasn't among the top group of the fastest 3yos

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Rod

Post subject: Re: The Preakness

Posted: Mon May 18, 2015 3:49 pm

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Buster wrote:

If they're both still in one piece, Pharoah probably goes to the Travers and Dortmund might win the Haskell because Baffert wins it almost every year. Either that or it will be Our Lucky Dane in the Haskell.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

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spmack

Post subject: Re: The Preakness

Posted: Mon May 18, 2015 4:31 pm

Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 4:26 pm
Posts: 31155
Location: West Side
pizza_Place: Paisan's in Cicero

Buster wrote:

Dortmund never developed.
It's like a 13yo kid who stopped growing.

That's a good point.

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Rod

Post subject: Re: The Preakness

Posted: Mon May 18, 2015 4:41 pm

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spmack wrote:

Buster wrote:

Dortmund never developed.
It's like a 13yo kid who stopped growing.

That's a good point.

I'm not really sure that's true though. He had a lot of hard races in a row culminating with the first two legs of the Triple Crown against an exceptional animal. In the Derby he cut an honest pace and finished third beaten only a few lengths. He beat fourteen of them. And he beat one of the two who beat him twice in California. I think the classic distance is probably stretching the limits of his pedigree with that Storm Cat on the bottom. (Pharoah has it too, but as I said, he's exceptional.) It's not like Dortmund is a bum.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

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Buster

Post subject: Re: The Preakness

Posted: Mon May 18, 2015 5:33 pm

Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2012 11:43 am
Posts: 998
pizza_Place: LouMal

Numerically it is true.
In the Derby he received about as good a trip as you can hope for and was fortunate to finish where he did.

People saw 4 or 5 wins in a row and thought he was something he was not, the numbers told a different story

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Rod

Post subject: Re: The Preakness

Posted: Mon May 18, 2015 5:45 pm

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Buster wrote:

Well, we don't know how fast a horse is until he does it. It's difficult to say how fast a horse is when he hasn't lost. The goal isn't to run away by fifteen lengths.

I'm not the world's biggest Dortmund fan, but I think you're underestimating him. His Derby wasn't a bad race by any means. And I believe he was simply going off form as all horses do sometimes.

It would be difficult to say objectively that there are more than four horses better than he is in this generation. At least right now.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

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Buster

Post subject: Re: The Preakness

Posted: Mon May 18, 2015 5:54 pm

Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2012 11:43 am
Posts: 998
pizza_Place: LouMal

There are more than 4 horses who are faster than him right now.

You can measure performance win or lose.
It's nice to say you finsihed 3rd in the Derby but from an objective wagering perspective it wasn't much of a performance and it wasn't a forward move.

He hasn't developed this time of year which is when he should be.

It will be very interesting to see what number he fires off the bench as it will be a good indicator as to the rest of his career.

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Walt Williams Neck

Post subject: Re: The Preakness

Posted: Tue May 19, 2015 5:43 am

Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2008 2:43 pm
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Location: end of lonely street
pizza_Place: Obbies

Buster wrote:

What the hell are you talking about? He is 17 hands!

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

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Rod

Post subject: Re: The Preakness

Posted: Tue May 19, 2015 6:45 am

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Walt Williams Neck wrote:

Buster wrote:

What the hell are you talking about? He is 17 hands!

He means from a speed and maturity standpoint. Bigger horses often take longer to come to their speed. You could see Dortmund stepping forward after each race leading up to the Derby. Maybe he just went as far as he can go.

He's obviously a lazy horse. You could see that when Firing Line went past him out in California. Then he decided he was going to come back and get him. It's hard to argue with a guy who has won four Kentucky Derbies, but I wouldn't have let the boy race him on the front so many times in a row. A horse's nature is to want to run at the front of the herd. You let him do it too often, he never wants to do anything else.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

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